----------------------------------------
Page 2
MCEV financial statements
Condensed consolidated income statement - MCEV basis
For the six month period ended 30 June 2012
|
|
6 months
2012
£m
|
|
Restated3
6 months
2011
£m
|
|
Full year
2011
£m
|
|
|
Continuing operations
|
|
Continuing operations
|
Discontinued operations
|
Total
|
|
Continuing operations
|
Discontinued operations
|
Total
|
|
Operating profit before tax attributable to shareholders' profits
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
|
471
|
|
509
|
-
|
509
|
|
1,102
|
-
|
1,102
|
|
France
|
200
|
|
295
|
-
|
295
|
|
1,077
|
-
|
1,077
|
|
United States
|
81
|
|
188
|
-
|
188
|
|
241
|
-
|
241
|
|
Italy, Spain and Other
|
323
|
|
248
|
270
|
518
|
|
197
|
270
|
467
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
153
|
|
162
|
-
|
162
|
|
512
|
-
|
512
|
|
Long-term business
|
1,228
|
|
1,402
|
270
|
1,672
|
|
3,129
|
270
|
3,399
|
|
General insurance and health
|
461
|
|
455
|
1
|
456
|
|
935
|
1
|
936
|
|
Fund management1
|
7
|
|
9
|
9
|
18
|
|
32
|
9
|
41
|
|
Other operations2
|
(96)
|
|
(80)
|
7
|
(73)
|
|
(204)
|
7
|
(197)
|
|
Market operating profit
|
1,600
|
|
1,786
|
287
|
2,073
|
|
3,892
|
287
|
4,179
|
|
Corporate centre
|
(64)
|
|
(66)
|
-
|
(66)
|
|
(138)
|
-
|
(138)
|
|
Group debt costs and other interest
|
(334)
|
|
(321)
|
(4)
|
(325)
|
|
(657)
|
(4)
|
(661)
|
|
Operating profit before tax attributable to shareholders' profits (excluding Delta Lloyd as an associate)
|
1,202
|
|
1,399
|
283
|
1,682
|
|
3,097
|
283
|
3,380
|
|
Share of operating profit (before tax) of Delta Lloyd as an associate
|
112
|
|
35
|
-
|
35
|
|
157
|
-
|
157
|
|
Operating profit before tax attributable to shareholders' profits
|
1,314
|
|
1,434
|
283
|
1,717
|
|
3,254
|
283
|
3,537
|
|
Integration and restructuring costs
|
(188)
|
|
(60)
|
-
|
(60)
|
|
(212)
|
-
|
(212)
|
|
Operating profit before tax attributable to shareholders' profit after integration and restructuring costs
|
1,126
|
|
1,374
|
283
|
1,657
|
|
3,042
|
283
|
3,325
|
|
Adjusted for the following:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Economic variances on long-term business
|
1,173
|
|
81
|
(316)
|
(235)
|
|
(6,541)
|
(316)
|
(6,857)
|
|
Short-term fluctuation in return on investments on
non-long-term business
|
31
|
|
(80)
|
(60)
|
(140)
|
|
(266)
|
(60)
|
(326)
|
|
Economic assumption changes on general insurance and health business
|
(18)
|
|
(8)
|
-
|
(8)
|
|
(90)
|
-
|
(90)
|
|
Impairment of goodwill
|
(603)
|
|
(20)
|
-
|
(20)
|
|
(392)
|
-
|
(392)
|
|
Amortisation and impairment of intangibles
|
(134)
|
|
(42)
|
(5)
|
(47)
|
|
(266)
|
(5)
|
(271)
|
|
Profit on the disposal of subsidiaries and associates
|
(30)
|
|
(11)
|
159
|
148
|
|
565
|
159
|
724
|
|
Exceptional items
|
-
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
(57)
|
-
|
(57)
|
|
Non-operating items before tax (excluding
Delta Lloyd as an associate and integration and
restructuring costs)
|
419
|
|
(80)
|
(222)
|
(302)
|
|
(7,047)
|
(222)
|
(7,269)
|
|
Share of Delta Lloyd's non-operating items (before tax) as an associate
|
(523)
|
|
(8)
|
-
|
(8)
|
|
10
|
-
|
10
|
|
Non-operating items before tax
|
(104)
|
|
(88)
|
(222)
|
(310)
|
|
(7,037)
|
(222)
|
(7,259)
|
|
Share of Delta Lloyd's tax expense, as an associate
|
107
|
|
(7)
|
-
|
(7)
|
|
(34)
|
-
|
(34)
|
|
Profit/(loss) before tax attributable to shareholders' profits
|
1,129
|
|
1,279
|
61
|
1,340
|
|
(4,029)
|
61
|
(3,968)
|
|
Tax on operating profit
|
(414)
|
|
(487)
|
(74)
|
(561)
|
|
(974)
|
(74)
|
(1,048)
|
|
Tax on other activities
|
(335)
|
|
(40)
|
98
|
58
|
|
2,217
|
98
|
2,315
|
|
|
(749)
|
|
(527)
|
24
|
(503)
|
|
1,243
|
24
|
1,267
|
|
Profit/(loss) for the period
|
380
|
|
752
|
85
|
837
|
|
(2,786)
|
85
|
(2,701)
|
1. Excludes the proportion of the results of Aviva Investors fund management businesses and other fund management operations within the Group that arises from the provision of fund management services to our life businesses.
These results are included within the life MCEV operating earnings consistent with the MCEV methodology.
2. Excludes the proportion of the results of subsidiaries providing services to the Life business. These results are included within the life MCEV operating earnings consistent with the MCEV methodology.
3. The half year 2011 results have been restated for US as outlined in E1 Basis of preparation.
Page 3
Earnings per share - MCEV basis
|
|
6 months
2012
|
|
Restated
6 months
2011
|
|
Full year
2011
|
|
Earnings per share
|
Continuing operations
|
|
Continuing operations
|
Discontinued operations
|
Total
|
|
Continuing operations
|
Discontinued operations
|
Total
|
|
Operating earnings per share on an MCEV basis after tax, attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Basic (pence per share)
|
24.7p
|
|
28.5p
|
3.9p
|
32.4p
|
|
71.3p
|
3.8p
|
75.1p
|
|
Diluted (pence per share)
|
24.3p
|
|
28.0p
|
3.8p
|
31.8p
|
|
70.0p
|
3.8p
|
73.8p
|
|
(Losses)/earnings after tax on an MCEV basis, attributable to
ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Basic (pence per share)
|
(1.8p)
|
|
26.1p
|
4.0p
|
30.1p
|
|
(67.3p)
|
4.0p
|
(63.3p)
|
|
Diluted1 (pence per share)
|
(1.8p)
|
|
25.6p
|
4.0p
|
29.6p
|
|
(67.3p)
|
3.9p
|
(63.3p)
|
1 Losses have an anti-dilutive effect. Therefore the basic and diluted earnings have remained the same.
Total Group MCEV operating profit before shareholder tax was £1,314 million (HY11: £1,717 million), a decrease of 23%. Within this total the long-term business operating profit before shareholder tax was £1,228 million (HY11: £1,672 million), a decrease of 27%.
Page 4
Condensed consolidated statement of comprehensive income - MCEV basis
For the six month period ended 30 June 2012
|
|
6 months
2012
£m
|
Restated
6 months
2011
£m
|
Full year
2011
£m
|
|
Profit/(loss) for the period from continuing operations
|
380
|
752
|
(2,786)
|
|
Profit for the period from discontinued operations
|
-
|
85
|
85
|
|
Profit/(loss) for the period
|
380
|
837
|
(2,701)
|
|
Other comprehensive income from continuing operations
|
|
|
|
|
Fair value losses on AFS securities, owner-occupied properties and hedging instruments
|
-
|
(60)
|
(9)
|
|
Actuarial gains on pension schemes
|
123
|
22
|
996
|
|
Actuarial losses on pension schemes transferred to unallocated divisible surplus and other movements
|
-
|
(30)
|
(22)
|
|
Share of other comprehensive expense from joint ventures and associates
|
(7)
|
-
|
(141)
|
|
Foreign exchange rate movements
|
(202)
|
400
|
(461)
|
|
Aggregate tax effect - shareholder tax
|
(41)
|
(11)
|
(160)
|
|
Other comprehensive (expense)/income, net of tax from continuing operations
|
(127)
|
321
|
203
|
|
Other comprehensive income, net of tax from discontinued operations
|
-
|
131
|
131
|
|
Other comprehensive (expense)/income, net of tax
|
(127)
|
452
|
334
|
|
Total comprehensive income/(expense) for the period from continuing operations
|
253
|
1,073
|
(2,583)
|
|
Total comprehensive income for the period from discontinued operations
|
-
|
216
|
216
|
|
Total comprehensive income/(expense) for the period
|
253
|
1,289
|
(2,367)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Attributable to:
|
|
|
|
|
Equity shareholders of Aviva plc
|
(134)
|
1,139
|
(1,419)
|
|
Non-controlling interests
|
387
|
150
|
(948)
|
|
|
253
|
1,289
|
(2,367)
|
Condensed consolidated statement of changes in equity - MCEV basis
For the six month period ended 30 June 2012
|
|
6 months
2012
£m
|
Restated
6 months
2011
£m
|
Full year
2011
£m
|
|
Balance at 1 January
|
15,495
|
20,205
|
20,205
|
|
Total comprehensive (expense)/income for the year
|
253
|
1,289
|
(2,367)
|
|
Dividends and appropriations
|
(474)
|
(460)
|
(813)
|
|
Shares issued in lieu of dividends
|
38
|
184
|
307
|
|
Capital contributions from minority shareholders
|
6
|
25
|
68
|
|
Movements in ordinary shareholder equity following deconsolidation of Delta Lloyd
|
-
|
(316)
|
(316)
|
|
Movements in non controlling interests following deconsolidation of Delta Lloyd
|
-
|
(1,484)
|
(1,484)
|
|
Minority share of dividends declared in the year
|
(66)
|
(76)
|
(126)
|
|
Issue of fixed rate tier 1 notes
|
392
|
-
|
-
|
|
Recycling of reserves to income statement on disposal of subsidiary
|
-
|
-
|
(3)
|
|
Non-controlling interest in (disposed)/acquired subsidiaries
|
5
|
-
|
-
|
|
Changes in non-controlling interest in existing subsidiaries
|
-
|
(11)
|
(11)
|
|
Shares acquired by employee trusts
|
(3)
|
-
|
(29)
|
|
Reserves credit for equity compensation plans
|
23
|
18
|
48
|
|
Aggregate tax effect - shareholder tax
|
-
|
-
|
16
|
|
Total equity
|
15,669
|
19,374
|
15,495
|
|
Non-controlling interests
|
(1,808)
|
(2,580)
|
(1,476)
|
|
Balance at 30 June/31 December
|
13,861
|
16,794
|
14,019
|
Page 5
Condensed consolidated statement of financial position - MCEV basis
As at 30 June 2012
|
|
30 June
2012
£m
|
Restated
30 June
2011
£m
|
Full year
2011
£m
|
|
Assets
|
|
|
|
|
Goodwill
|
1,794
|
2,823
|
2,640
|
|
Acquired value of in-force business and intangible assets
|
1,649
|
2,396
|
2,021
|
|
Additional value of in-force long-term business1
|
1,064
|
4,169
|
132
|
|
Interests in, and loans to, joint ventures
|
1,689
|
2,154
|
1,700
|
|
Interests in, and loans to, associates
|
979
|
1,427
|
1,118
|
|
Property and equipment
|
445
|
467
|
510
|
|
Investment property
|
11,001
|
11,236
|
11,638
|
|
Loans
|
26,918
|
24,828
|
28,116
|
|
Financial investments
|
213,270
|
228,006
|
216,058
|
|
Reinsurance assets
|
7,239
|
6,570
|
7,112
|
|
Deferred tax assets
|
262
|
136
|
238
|
|
Current tax assets
|
74
|
112
|
140
|
|
Receivables
|
8,456
|
9,271
|
7,937
|
|
Deferred acquisition costs and other assets
|
6,444
|
5,956
|
6,444
|
|
Prepayments and accrued income
|
3,176
|
3,390
|
3,235
|
|
Cash and cash equivalents
|
25,251
|
23,106
|
23,043
|
|
Assets of operations classified as held for sale
|
3,962
|
728
|
426
|
|
Total assets
|
313,673
|
326,775
|
312,508
|
|
Equity
|
|
|
|
|
Ordinary share capital
|
729
|
716
|
726
|
|
Capital reserves
|
4,441
|
4,455
|
4,444
|
|
Other reserves
|
1,066
|
1,634
|
1,262
|
|
Shares held by employee trusts
|
(14)
|
(32)
|
(43)
|
|
Retained earnings
|
4,854
|
5,303
|
5,954
|
|
Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis1
|
1,203
|
3,528
|
486
|
|
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc
|
12,279
|
15,604
|
12,829
|
|
Preference share capital, direct capital instruments and fixed rate tier 1 notes
|
1,582
|
1,190
|
1,190
|
|
Non-controlling interests1
|
1,808
|
2,580
|
1,476
|
|
Total equity
|
15,669
|
19,374
|
15,495
|
|
Liabilities
|
|
|
|
|
Gross insurance liabilities
|
148,003
|
149,515
|
150,101
|
|
Gross liabilities for investment contracts
|
107,386
|
119,284
|
110,644
|
|
Unallocated divisible surplus
|
3,162
|
3,273
|
650
|
|
Net asset value attributable to unitholders
|
11,138
|
8,735
|
10,352
|
|
Provisions
|
1,097
|
1,103
|
992
|
|
Deferred tax liabilities
|
1,324
|
1,166
|
1,171
|
|
Current tax liabilities
|
200
|
249
|
232
|
|
Borrowings
|
8,071
|
8,882
|
8,450
|
|
Payables and other financial liabilities
|
11,061
|
12,029
|
11,230
|
|
Other liabilities
|
2,927
|
2,822
|
2,828
|
|
Liabilities of operations classified as held for sale
|
3,635
|
343
|
363
|
|
Total liabilities
|
298,004
|
307,401
|
297,013
|
|
Total equity and liabilities
|
313,673
|
326,775
|
312,508
|
The condensed consolidated statement of financial position presented above is unaltered from the corresponding IFRS summarised consolidated statement of financial position with the exception of the following:
1. Adding the excess of the Life MCEV, including non controlling interests, over the corresponding Life IFRS net assets represented as the additional value of in-force long-term business; corresponding item within equity represented by the additional retained profit on an MCEV basis; and, corresponding adjustments to non-controlling interests.
Page 6
Reconciliation of shareholders' equity on IFRS and MCEV bases
For the six month period to 30 June 2012
|
30 June 2012
|
IFRS
£m
|
Adjustment
£m
|
MCEV
£m
|
|
Ordinary share capital
|
729
|
-
|
729
|
|
Capital reserves
|
4,441
|
-
|
4,441
|
|
Other reserves
|
1,514
|
(448)
|
1,066
|
|
Shares held by employee trusts
|
(14)
|
-
|
(14)
|
|
Retained earnings
|
4,854
|
-
|
4,854
|
|
Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis
|
-
|
1,203
|
1,203
|
|
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc
|
11,524
|
755
|
12,279
|
|
Preference share capital
|
200
|
-
|
200
|
|
Direct capital instruments and fixed rate tier 1 notes
|
1,382
|
-
|
1,382
|
|
Non-controlling interests
|
1,499
|
309
|
1,808
|
|
Total equity
|
14,605
|
1,064
|
15,669
|
|
Restated
30 June 2011
|
IFRS
£m
|
Adjustment
£m
|
Restated
MCEV
£m
|
|
Ordinary share capital
|
716
|
-
|
716
|
|
Capital reserves
|
4,455
|
-
|
4,455
|
|
Other reserves
|
1,729
|
(95)
|
1,634
|
|
Shares held by employee trusts
|
(32)
|
-
|
(32)
|
|
Retained earnings
|
5,303
|
-
|
5,303
|
|
Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis
|
-
|
3,528
|
3,528
|
|
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc
|
12,171
|
3,433
|
15,604
|
|
Preference share capital
|
200
|
-
|
200
|
|
Direct capital instruments
|
990
|
-
|
990
|
|
Non-controlling interests
|
1,844
|
736
|
2,580
|
|
Total equity
|
15,205
|
4,169
|
19,374
|
Reconciliation of IFRS total equity to MCEV net worth
For the six month period to 30 June 2012
|
|
30 June
2012
£m
|
Restated
30 June
2011
£m
|
Full year
2011
£m
|
|
Net assets on a statutory IFRS net basis
|
14,605
|
15,205
|
15,363
|
|
Adjusting for general business and other net assets on a statutory IFRS net basis
|
291
|
350
|
301
|
|
Life and related businesses net assets on a statutory IFRS net basis
|
14,896
|
15,555
|
15,664
|
|
Goodwill and other intangibles
|
(1,234)
|
(2,378)
|
(2,117)
|
|
Acquired value of in-force business
|
(830)
|
(1,285)
|
(960)
|
|
Adjustment for share of joint ventures and associates
|
(11)
|
(5)
|
(7)
|
|
Adjustment for assets to regulatory value net of tax
|
(2,238)
|
(1,005)
|
(1,880)
|
|
Adjustment for DAC and DIR net of tax
|
(2,499)
|
(2,899)
|
(2,622)
|
|
Adjustment for differences in technical provisions
|
3,065
|
2,806
|
2,904
|
|
Other accounting and tax differences
|
(827)
|
(616)
|
(507)
|
|
MCEV net worth
|
10,322
|
10,173
|
10,475
|
|
MCEV value of in-force1
|
3,732
|
6,977
|
2,619
|
|
MCEV2
|
14,054
|
17,150
|
13,094
|
1. Comprises PVFP of £6,721 million (30 June 2011: £9,649 million; 31 December 2011: £5,847 million), FC of £(579) million (30 June 2011: £(760)million; 31 December 2011: £(642) million), CNHR of £(1,063) million (30 June 2011: (£942) million; 31 December 2011: £(1,046) million), and TVOG of £(1,347) million (30 June 2011: (£970) million; 31 December 2011: £(1,540) million).
2. Comprises embedded value of £12,902 million (30 June 2011: £15,300 million; 31 December 2011: £12,274 million) and non-controlling interest in long-term business assets of £ 1,152 million (30 June 2011: £1,850 million; 31 December 2011: £820 million).
The adjustment for assets to regulatory value and differences in technical provisions relate mainly to the US, reflecting differences between the IFRS and local solvency reserving basis. The DAC and DIR adjustment relates mainly to the UK and US.
Page 7
Group MCEV analysis of earnings
|
30 June 2012
|
Covered
business1
£m
A
|
Non-covered
but related
to life
business2
£m
B
|
Total life
business3
£m
A+B
|
Non-covered relating to non-life
£m
C
|
Total non-covered
business
£m
B+C
|
Total
£m
A+B+C
|
|
Opening Group MCEV
|
12,274
|
2,533
|
14,807
|
(788)
|
1,745
|
14,019
|
|
Operating MCEV earnings
|
744
|
-
|
744
|
(19)
|
(19)
|
725
|
|
Non-operating MCEV earnings
|
483
|
(873)
|
(390)
|
(377)
|
(1,250)
|
(767)
|
|
Total MCEV earnings
|
1,227
|
(873)
|
354
|
(396)
|
(1,269)
|
(42)
|
|
Other movements in IFRS net equity
|
-
|
87
|
87
|
(12)
|
75
|
75
|
|
Capital and dividend flows
|
(508)
|
-
|
(508)
|
484
|
484
|
(24)
|
|
Foreign exchange variances
|
(108)
|
(34)
|
(142)
|
(25)
|
(59)
|
(167)
|
|
Acquired/divested businesses
|
17
|
31
|
48
|
(48)
|
(17)
|
-
|
|
Closing Group MCEV
|
12,902
|
1,744
|
14,646
|
(785)
|
959
|
13,861
|
|
Preference share capital, direct capital instruments and fixed rate tier 1 notes
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1,582)
|
|
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc on an MCEV basis
|
|
|
|
|
|
12,279
|
1. Covered business represents the business that the MCEV calculations cover, as detailed in the Basis of preparation note. The embedded value is presented net of non-controlling interests and tax.
2. Non-covered but related to life business represents the adjustments to the MCEV, including goodwill, to calculate the long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis. An analysis of net assets on an MCEV basis gross of non-controlling interests is provided in E6.
3. Net assets for the total life businesses on an MCEV basis presented net of non-controlling interests.
|
Restated
30 June 2011
|
Covered
business1
£m
A
|
Non-covered
but related
to life
business2
£m
B
|
Total life
business3
£m
A+B
|
Non-covered relating to
non-life
£m
C
|
Total non-covered
business
£m
B+C
|
Total
£m
A+B+C
|
|
Opening Group MCEV
|
15,874
|
2,339
|
18,213
|
(1,985)
|
354
|
16,228
|
|
Operating MCEV earnings
|
990
|
-
|
990
|
(67)
|
(67)
|
923
|
|
Non-operating MCEV earnings
|
50
|
(41)
|
9
|
(74)
|
(115)
|
(65)
|
|
Total MCEV earnings
|
1,040
|
(41)
|
999
|
(141)
|
(182)
|
858
|
|
Other movements in IFRS net equity
|
-
|
23
|
23
|
(92)
|
(69)
|
(69)
|
|
Capital and dividend flows
|
(417)
|
-
|
(417)
|
(156)
|
(156)
|
(573)
|
|
Foreign exchange variances
|
322
|
23
|
345
|
5
|
28
|
350
|
|
Acquired/divested businesses
|
(1,519)
|
34
|
(1,485)
|
1,485
|
1,519
|
-
|
|
Closing Group MCEV
|
15,300
|
2,378
|
17,678
|
(884)
|
1,494
|
16,794
|
|
Preference share capital and direct capital instruments
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1,190)
|
|
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc on an MCEV basis
|
|
|
|
|
|
15,604
|
1. Covered business represents the business that the MCEV calculations cover, as detailed in the Basis of preparation note. The embedded value is presented net of non-controlling interests and tax.
2. Non-covered but related to life business represents the adjustments to the MCEV, including goodwill, to calculate the long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis. An analysis of net assets on an MCEV basis gross of non-controlling interests is provided in E6.
3. Net assets for the total life businesses on an MCEV basis presented net of non-controlling interests.
|
Full year 2011
|
Covered
business1
£m
A
|
Non-covered
but related
to life
business2
£m
B
|
Total life
business3
£m
A+B
|
Non-covered relating to non-life
£m
C
|
Total
non-covered
business
£m
B+C
|
Total
£m
A+B+C
|
|
Opening Group MCEV
|
15,874
|
2,339
|
18,213
|
(1,985)
|
354
|
16,228
|
|
Operating MCEV earnings
|
2,193
|
-
|
2,193
|
4
|
4
|
2,197
|
|
Non-operating MCEV earnings
|
(3,530)
|
(218)
|
(3,748)
|
(189)
|
(407)
|
(3,937)
|
|
Total MCEV earnings
|
(1,337)
|
(218)
|
(1,555)
|
(185)
|
(403)
|
(1,740)
|
|
Other movements in IFRS net equity
|
-
|
412
|
412
|
270
|
682
|
682
|
|
Capital and dividend flows
|
(493)
|
-
|
(493)
|
(297)
|
(297)
|
(790)
|
|
Foreign exchange variances
|
(251)
|
(30)
|
(281)
|
(80)
|
(110)
|
(361)
|
|
Acquired/divested businesses
|
(1,519)
|
30
|
(1,489)
|
1,489
|
1,519
|
-
|
|
Closing Group MCEV
|
12,274
|
2,533
|
14,807
|
(788)
|
1,745
|
14,019
|
|
Preference share capital and direct capital instruments
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1,190)
|
|
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc on an MCEV basis
|
|
|
|
|
|
12,829
|
1 Covered business represents the business that the MCEV calculations cover, as detailed in the Basis of preparation note. The embedded value is presented net of non-controlling interests and tax.
2 Non-covered but related to life business represents the adjustments to the MCEV, including goodwill, to calculate the long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis. An analysis of net assets on an MCEV basis gross of non-controlling interests is provided in E6.
3 Net assets for the total life businesses on an MCEV basis presented net of non-controlling interests.
Page 8
E1 - Basis of preparation
The condensed consolidated income statement and condensed consolidated statement of financial position on pages 2 to 5 present the Group's results and financial position for the covered life and related businesses on the Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) basis and for its non-covered businesses and non-covered but related to life businesses on the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) basis. The MCEV methodology adopted is in accordance with the MCEV Principles published by the CFO Forum in October 2009. The CFO Forum MCEV principles (17.3.29) indicate that changes to models to reflect improvements or rectify errors should be included in the 'other operating variances' line. Where possible, such model refinements have been reported in the analysis of earnings on the line where the impact would have occurred in order to provide better information when considering assumption changes / experience variances over multiple reporting periods.
The directors consider that the MCEV methodology gives useful insight into the drivers of financial performance of the Group's life and related businesses. This basis values future cash flows from assets consistently with market prices, including more explicit allowance for the impact of uncertainty in future investment returns and other risks. Embedded value is also consistent with the way pricing is assessed and the business is managed.
The results for our half year report have been reviewed by our auditors, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. Their report in respect of the half-year can be found on page 40.
Covered business
The MCEV calculations cover the following lines of business: life insurance, long-term health and accident insurance, savings, pensions and annuity business written by our life insurance subsidiaries, including managed pension fund business and our share of certain life and related business written in our associated undertakings and joint ventures, as well as the equity release business written in the UK.
Covered business includes the Group's share of our joint ventures including our associated undertakings in India, China, Turkey, Malaysia, Taiwan and South Korea. In addition, the results of Group companies providing significant administration, fund management and other services and of Group holding companies have been included to the extent that they relate to covered business. Together these businesses are referred to as "Life and related businesses".
Aviva's associate holding of Delta Lloyd is not included within covered business as MCEV is not used to manage Delta Lloyd. For 'Group' MCEV reporting, which includes general insurance and other non-covered business, Delta Lloyd is included on an IFRS basis.
New business premiums
New business premiums include:
n premiums arising from the sale of new contracts during the period;
n non-contractual additional premiums; and
n expected renewals on new contracts and expected future contractual alterations to new contracts.
The Group's definition of new business under MCEV includes contracts that meet the definition of "non-participating investment" contracts under IFRS.
For products sold to individuals, premiums are considered to represent new business where a new contract has been signed,
or where underwriting has been performed. Renewal premiums include contractual renewals, non-contractual variations that are reasonably predictable and recurrent single premiums that are pre-defined and reasonably predictable.
For group products, new business includes new contracts and increases to aggregate premiums under existing contracts. Renewal premiums are based on the level of premium received during the reporting period and allow for premiums expected to be received beyond the expiry of any guaranteed premium rates.
Life and pensions operating earnings
For life and pensions operating earnings, Aviva uses normalised investment returns. The use of asset risk premia reflects management's long-term expectations of asset returns in excess of the swap yield from investing in different asset classes.
The normalised investment return on equities and property has been calculated by reference to the ten-year swap rate in the relevant currency plus an appropriate risk premium. The expected return on bonds has been calculated by reference to the swap rate consistent with the duration of the backing assets in the relevant currency plus an appropriate risk margin (expected return is equivalent to the gross redemption yield less an allowance for defaults).
The expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate) is calculated using the implied discount rate (IDR), which itself is based on the normalised investment returns. The methodology applies the IDR to the Value of In Force (VIF) and Required Capital (RC) components of the MCEV and adds to this the total expected return for Free Surplus (FS) to derive the total expected return, in a manner consistent with that previously used under European Embedded Value reporting. This total is presented as the expected existing business contribution (reference rate), expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate) and expected return on shareholders' net worth (grossed up for tax for pre-tax presentation), with only the excess contribution being impacted by the approach. For businesses where the IDR is unpublished, the expected return in excess of the reference rate is calculated as the excess of the real world equivalent embedded value (EqEV) over the MCEV amortised over the average duration of the portfolio. The approach to expected return has no impact on total return or on the closing balance sheet.
Page 9
E1 - Basis of preparation continued
MCEV methodology
Overview
Under the MCEV methodology, profit is recognised as it is earned over the life of products defined within covered business. The total profit recognised over the lifetime of a policy is the same as under the IFRS basis of reporting, but the timing of recognition is different.
Calculation of the embedded value
The shareholders' interest in the life and related businesses is represented by the embedded value. The embedded value is the total of the net worth of the life and related businesses and the value of in-force covered business. Calculations are performed separately for each business and are based on the cash flows of that business, after allowing for both external and intra-Group reinsurance. Where one life business has an interest in another, the net worth of that business excludes the interest in the dependent company.
The embedded value is calculated on an after-tax basis applying current legislation and practice together with future known changes. Consistent with CFO Forum guidance issued in 2011, no explicit allowance has been made for the developing European regulation regime (Solvency II) and associated consequences. Where gross results are presented, these have been calculated by grossing up post-tax results at the full rate of corporation tax for each country based on opening period tax rates, apart from the UK, where a 24% tax rate was used for 2012 for grossing up.
Net worth
The net worth is the market value of the shareholders' funds and the shareholders' interest in the surplus held in the non-profit component of the long-term business funds, determined on a statutory solvency basis and adjusted to add back any non-admissible assets, and consists of the required capital and free surplus.
Required capital is the market value of assets attributed to the covered business over and above that required to back liabilities for covered business, for which distribution to shareholders is restricted. Required capital is reported net of implicit items permitted on a local regulatory basis to cover minimum solvency margins which are assessed at a local entity level. The level of required capital for each business unit is generally set equal to the higher of:
n The level of capital at which the local regulator is empowered to take action;
n The capital requirement of the business unit under the Group's economic capital requirements; and
n The target capital level of the business unit.
For Aviva US, the required capital is set at 325% of the NAIC Company Action Level in line with management targets and target credit ratings.
This methodology reflects the level of capital considered by the directors to be appropriate to manage the business, and includes any additional shareholder funds not available for distribution, such as the reattributed inherited estate in the UK. The same definition of required capital is used for both existing and new business except in Italy where new business reflects the targeted capital level which better reflects the capital requirements of the new business.
The free surplus is the market value of any assets allocated to, but not required to support, the in-force covered business at the valuation date. The level of required capital across the business units expressed as a percentage of the EU minimum solvency margin (or equivalent) can be found in E15.
Value of in-force covered business (VIF)
The value of in-force covered business consists of the following components:
n present value of future profits;
n time value of financial options and guarantees;
n frictional costs of required capital; and
n cost of residual non-hedgeable risks.
Present value of future profits (PVFP)
This is the present value of the distributable profits to shareholders arising from the in-force covered business projected on a best estimate basis.
Distributable profits generally arise when they are released following actuarial valuations. These valuations are carried out in accordance with any local statutory requirements designed to ensure and demonstrate solvency in long-term business funds. Future distributable profits will depend on experience in a number of areas such as investment return, discontinuance rates, mortality, administration costs, as well as management and policyholder actions. Releases to shareholders arising in future years from the in-force covered business and associated required capital can be projected using assumptions of future experience.
Future profits are projected using best estimate non-economic assumptions and market consistent economic assumptions. In principle, each cash flow is discounted at a rate that appropriately reflects the riskiness of that cash flow, so higher risk cash flows are discounted at higher rates. In practice, the PVFP is calculated using the "certainty equivalent" approach, under which the reference rate is used for both the investment return and the discount rate. This approach ensures that asset cash flows are valued consistently with the market prices of assets without options and guarantees. Further information on the risk-free rates is given in note E15.
The PVFP includes the capitalised value of profits and losses arising from subsidiary companies providing administration, investment management and other services to the extent that they relate to covered business. This is referred to as the "look through" into service company expenses. In addition, expenses arising in holding companies that relate directly to acquiring or maintaining covered business have been allowed for. Where external companies provide services to the life and related businesses, their charges have been allowed for in the underlying projected cost base.
Page 10
E1 - Basis of preparation continued
Time value of financial options and guarantees (TVOG)
The PVFP calculation is based on a single (base) economic scenario; however, a single scenario cannot appropriately allow for the effect of certain product features. If an option or guarantee affects shareholder cash flows in the base scenario, the impact is included in the PVFP and is referred to as the intrinsic value of the option guarantee; however, future investment returns are uncertain and the actual impact on shareholder profits may be higher or lower. The value of in-force business needs to be adjusted for the impact of the range of potential future outcomes. Stochastic modelling techniques can be used to assess the impact of potential future outcomes, and the difference between the intrinsic value and the total stochastic value is referred to as the time value of the option or guarantee.
Stochastic modelling typically involves projecting the future cash flows of the business under thousands of economic scenarios that are representative of the possible future outcomes for market variables such as interest rates and equity returns. Under a market consistent approach, the economic scenarios generated reflect the market's tendency towards risk aversion. Allowance is made, where appropriate, for the effect of management and/or policyholder actions in different economic conditions on future assumptions such
as asset mix, bonus rates and surrender rates.
Stochastic models are calibrated to market yield curves and volatility levels at the valuation date. Tests are performed to confirm that the scenarios used produce results that replicate the market price of traded instruments.
Where evidence exists that persistency rates are linked to economic scenarios, dynamic lapse assumptions are set that vary depending on the individual scenarios. This cost is included in the TVOG. Dynamic lapses are modelled for parts of the UK, US and French businesses. Asymmetries in non-economic assumptions that are linked to economic scenarios, but that have insufficient evidence for credible dynamic assumptions, are allowed for within mean best estimate assumptions.
Frictional costs of required capital
The additional costs to a shareholder of holding the assets backing required capital within an insurance company rather than directly in the market are called frictional costs. They are explicitly deducted from the PVFP. The additional costs allowed for are the taxation costs and any additional investment expenses on the assets backing the required capital. The level of required capital has been set out above in the net worth section.
Frictional costs are calculated by projecting forwards the future levels of required capital in line with drivers of the capital requirement. Tax on investment return and investment expenses are payable on the assets backing required capital, up until the point that they are released to shareholders.
Cost of residual non-hedgeable risks (CNHR)
The cost of residual non-hedgeable risks (CNHR) covers risks not already allowed for in the time value of options and guarantees
or the PVFP. The allowance includes the impact of both non-hedgeable financial and non-financial risks. The most significant risk
not included in the PVFP or TVOG is operational risk.
Asymmetric risks allowed for in the TVOG or PVFP are described earlier in the basis of preparation. No allowance has been made within the cost of non-hedgeable risk for symmetrical risks as these are diversifiable by investors.
US capital solutions
Credit has been taken within the US embedded value, and value of new business, for the anticipated reduction in capital requirements based on management's intention to enact transactions which allow recognition of additional assets that can be held against certain reserves, reducing shareholder capital requirements. These 'AXXX/XXX' transactions are fixed-term and are assumed to renew at current market rates. Enacting such transactions is common practice within the US market, and at 30 June 2012, transactions have been enacted for all business written from 2006 to 2011.
New business tax
New business for the US and Italy has been valued on a basis with tax applied at the full corporation rate and consequential movements in the value of the Deferred Tax Asset included as a variance within existing business operating return.
Participating business
Future regular bonuses on participating business are projected in a manner consistent with current bonus rates and expected future market-consistent returns on assets deemed to back the policies.
For with-profit funds in the UK and Ireland, for the purpose of recognising the value of the estate, it is assumed that terminal bonuses are increased to exhaust all of the assets in the fund over the future lifetime of the in-force with-profit policies. However, under stochastic modelling there may be some extreme economic scenarios when the total assets in the Group's with-profit funds are not sufficient to pay all policyholder claims. The average additional shareholder cost arising from this shortfall has been included
in the TVOG.
For profit-sharing business in continental Europe, where policy benefits and shareholder value depend on the timing of realising gains, the apportionment of unrealised gains between policyholders and shareholders reflect contractual requirements as well as existing practice. Under certain economic scenarios where additional shareholder injections are required to meet policyholder payments, the average additional cost has been included in the TVOG.
Page 11
E1 - Basis of preparation continued
Participating business continued
The embedded value of the US spread-based products anticipates the application of management discretion allowed for contractually within the policies, subject to contractual guarantees. This includes the ability to change the crediting rates and indexed strategies available within the policy. Consideration is taken of the economic environment assumed in future projections and returns in excess of the reference rate are not assumed. Anticipated market and policyholder reaction to management action has been considered.
Consolidation adjustments
The effect of transactions between group life companies such as loans and reinsurance arrangements have been included in the results split by territory in a consistent manner. No elimination is required on consolidation.
As the MCEV methodology incorporates the impact of profits and losses arising from subsidiary companies providing administration, investment management and other services to the Group's life companies, the equivalent profits and losses have been removed from the relevant segment (other operations or fund management) and are instead included within the results of life and related businesses. In addition, the underlying basis of calculation for these profits has changed from the IFRS basis to the MCEV basis.
The capitalised value of the future profits and losses from such service companies are included in the embedded value and value of new business calculations for the relevant business, but the net assets (representing historical profits and other amounts) remain under other operations or fund management. In order to reconcile the profits arising in the financial period within each segment with the assets on the opening and closing statement of financial positions, a transfer of IFRS profits from life and related business to the appropriate segment is deemed to occur. An equivalent approach has been adopted for expenses within our holding companies.
The assessments of goodwill, intangibles and pension schemes relating to life insurance business utilise the IFRS measurement basis.
Exchange rates
The Group's principal overseas operations during the period were located within the Eurozone and the United States.
The results and cash flows of these operations have been translated at the average rates for that period and the assets and liabilities have been translated at the period end rates. Please refer to note A2 of the IFRS financial statements.
Restatement
The 2010 and half year 2011 closing embedded values have been restated for the US, primarily reflecting modelling corrections to the valuation of certain life contracts and an overstatement of asset income identified in the second half of 2011. The resulting impact of the restatement was that the closing 2010 embedded value reduced by £257 million and the closing half year 2011 embedded value reduced by £257 million. Restated operating profit for period ending 30 June 2011 increased £52 million gross tax and minority interest as a result of increased expected return.
Impact of Delta Lloyd disposal
On 6 May 2011, the Group sold 25 million shares in Delta Lloyd N.V. ("Delta Lloyd") (the Group's Dutch long-term insurance, general insurance and fund management subsidiary), reducing our holding to approximately 43% of Delta Lloyd's ordinary share capital.
In line with IFRS, up to the date of partial disposal, Delta Lloyd has been presented as a discontinued operation. Following the partial disposal, when Delta Lloyd became an associate of Aviva, Delta Lloyd has been removed from covered business as it is not managed by either Aviva or Delta Lloyd on an MCEV basis. The impact on MCEV as at 6 May 2011 was a reduction of £1,519 million.
Page 12
E2 - Geographical analysis of life MCEV operating earnings
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 months
2012
|
|
Gross of tax and non-controlling interest
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
£m
|
France
£m
|
United States
£m
|
Italy, Spain and Other
£m
|
Developed markets
£m
|
Higher Growth markets
£m
|
Continuing operations
£m
|
|
Value of new business
|
176
|
62
|
(138)
|
35
|
135
|
70
|
205
|
|
Earnings from existing business:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected returns at the reference rate
|
109
|
49
|
33
|
22
|
213
|
59
|
272
|
|
- expected returns in excess of the reference rate
|
207
|
99
|
253
|
246
|
805
|
8
|
813
|
|
- expected returns
|
316
|
148
|
286
|
268
|
1,018
|
67
|
1,085
|
|
- experience variances
|
(37)
|
(13)
|
(96)
|
34
|
(112)
|
(2)
|
(114)
|
|
- operating assumption changes
|
(20)
|
-
|
-
|
(9)
|
(29)
|
8
|
(21)
|
|
Expected return on shareholders' net worth
|
63
|
28
|
31
|
43
|
165
|
16
|
181
|
|
Other operating variances
|
(27)
|
(25)
|
(2)
|
(48)
|
(102)
|
(6)
|
(108)
|
|
Operating earnings before tax
|
471
|
200
|
81
|
323
|
1,075
|
153
|
1,228
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Restated
6 months
2011
|
|
Gross of tax and non-controlling interest
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
£m
|
France
£m
|
United States
£m
|
Italy, Spain and Other
£m
|
Developed markets
£m
|
Higher Growth markets
£m
|
Continuing operations
£m
|
Discontinued operations
£m
|
Total
£m
|
|
Value of new business
|
192
|
97
|
(86)
|
102
|
305
|
64
|
369
|
1
|
370
|
|
Earnings from existing business:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected returns at the reference rate
|
87
|
57
|
33
|
31
|
208
|
53
|
261
|
19
|
280
|
|
- expected returns in excess of the reference rate
|
202
|
71
|
250
|
72
|
595
|
19
|
614
|
109
|
723
|
|
- expected returns
|
289
|
128
|
283
|
103
|
803
|
72
|
875
|
128
|
1,003
|
|
- experience variances
|
(29)
|
29
|
(55)
|
6
|
(49)
|
10
|
(39)
|
3
|
(36)
|
|
- operating assumption changes
|
(25)
|
-
|
(14)
|
(8)
|
(47)
|
22
|
(25)
|
99
|
74
|
|
Expected return on shareholders' net worth
|
94
|
40
|
40
|
40
|
214
|
15
|
229
|
41
|
270
|
|
Other operating variances
|
(12)
|
1
|
20
|
5
|
14
|
(21)
|
(7)
|
(2)
|
(9)
|
|
Operating earnings before tax
|
509
|
295
|
188
|
248
|
1,240
|
162
|
1,402
|
270
|
1,672
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Full year
2011
|
|
Gross of tax and non-controlling interest
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
£m
|
France
£m
|
United States
£m
|
Italy, Spain and Other
£m
|
Developed markets
£m
|
Higher Growth markets
£m
|
Continuing operations
£m
|
Discontinued operations
£m
|
Total
£m
|
|
Value of new business
|
376
|
142
|
(131)
|
166
|
553
|
136
|
689
|
1
|
690
|
|
Earnings from existing business:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected returns at the reference rate
|
228
|
113
|
62
|
64
|
467
|
99
|
566
|
19
|
585
|
|
- expected returns in excess of the reference rate
|
366
|
140
|
515
|
145
|
1,166
|
33
|
1,199
|
109
|
1,308
|
|
- expected returns
|
594
|
253
|
577
|
209
|
1,633
|
132
|
1,765
|
128
|
1,893
|
|
- experience variances
|
93
|
26
|
(98)
|
11
|
32
|
14
|
46
|
3
|
49
|
|
- operating assumption changes
|
(133)
|
244
|
(115)
|
(176)
|
(180)
|
221
|
41
|
99
|
140
|
|
Expected return on shareholders' net worth
|
177
|
60
|
64
|
81
|
382
|
29
|
411
|
41
|
452
|
|
Other operating variances
|
(5)
|
352
|
(56)
|
(94)
|
197
|
(20)
|
177
|
(2)
|
175
|
|
Operating earnings before tax
|
1,102
|
1,077
|
241
|
197
|
2,617
|
512
|
3,129
|
270
|
3,399
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
MCEV operating earnings were 7% lower at £471 million (HY11: £509 million) mainly due to lower value of new business and adverse experience variances.
Value of new business reduced by 8% to £176 million (HY11: £192 million), reflecting reduced volumes in Ireland due to the closing of Ark Life to new business and a reduction in bulk purchase annuities sales in the UK as the business continues to manage new business mix and pricing discipline.
Total expected return was broadly similar at £379 million (HY11: £383 million).
Operating experience variances, other operating variances and assumption changes decreased to £84 million adverse
(HY11: £66 million adverse) including higher expenditures from increased level of regulatory change and revisions to asset management profit margins.
Page 13
E2 - Geographical analysis of life MCEV operating earnings continued
France
MCEV operating earningsdecreased 32% to £200 million (HY11: £295 million) driven by a reduction in the value of new business and lower experience variances than the prior period.
Value of new business decreased 36% to £62 million (HY11: £97 million) following lower sales volumes of primarily unit-linked business and reduced margins on with-profits business as a result of the adverse economic climate in Europe in the first half of the year.
Total expected return increased 5% to £176 million (HY11: £168 million) resulting from a higher opening implied discount rate, albeit on a lower embedded value.
Experience variances were lower at £13 million adverse (HY11: £29 million) reflecting the assumption revisions in 2011 and an increase in lapse due to economic circumstances.
Other operating variances were lower at £25 million adverse (HY11: £1 million) relate to modelling refinements during the first half of the year.
United States
MCEV operating earnings decreased to £81 million (HY11: £188 million) driven by a reduction in the value of new business and unfavourable experience variances.
Value of new business of negative £138 million (HY11: £86 million negative) reflecting the adverse economic movements from lower risk-free rates.
Total expected return of £317 million (HY11: £323 million) is broadly in line with prior period.
Operating experience variances, other operating variances and assumption changes of £98 million adverse (HY11:£49 million adverse) primarily reflecting the marginal impact of new business on the value of deferred tax losses and non-recurrence of benefits from modelling refinements in the prior period.
Italy, Spain and Other Developed Markets
MCEV operating earnings increased by 30% to £323 million (HY11: £248 million) reflecting increases in expected return, partly offset by a reduction in the value of new business.
Value of new business decreased to £35 million (HY11: £102 million) driven by a reduction in volumes and margins in Italy and Spain reflecting the adverse economic climate in Europe in the first half of the year.
Total expected return increased to £311 million (HY11: £143 million) reflecting in Italy the expected release of the allowance for guarantees in the opening embedded value.
Experience variances increased to £34 million (HY11: £6 million) largely in Italy reflecting the benefit of the marginal impact of new business on the value of deferred tax losses and benefit of increased lapse due the negative value of in force business.
Assumption changes of £9 million adverse (HY11: £8 million adverse) relating to additional lapse provisions on unit linked business in Italy due to the adverse economic climate.
Other operating variances of £48 million adverse (HY11: £5 million) primarily from modelling improvements in Italy.
Higher Growth Markets
MCEV operating earnings decreased by 6% to £153 million (HY11: £162 million) as higher value of new business was more than offset by a decrease in experience variances and assumption change from the prior period.
Value of new business increased by 9% to £70 million (HY11: £64 million) due to an improvement in the margin reflecting
product mix.
Total expected return of £83 million (HY11: £87 million) broadly in line with prior period.
Operating experience variances, other operating variances and assumption changes of nil (HY11: £11 million) primarily reflecting the non-recurrence of positive assumption changes in the prior period.
Page 14
E2 - Geographical analysis of life MCEV operating earnings continued
|
Gross of tax and
non-controlling interests
30 June 2012
|
UK
£m
|
Ireland
£m
|
UK & Ireland
£m
|
France
£m
|
United States
£m
|
Spain
£m
|
Italy
£m
|
Other
£m
|
Developed markets
£m
|
Poland
£m
|
Asia
£m
|
Other
£m
|
Higher Growth markets
£m
|
Continuing operations
£m
|
|
Value of new business
|
182
|
(6)
|
176
|
62
|
(138)
|
21
|
14
|
-
|
135
|
18
|
37
|
15
|
70
|
205
|
|
Earnings from existing business
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected existing
business contribution
(reference rate)
|
101
|
8
|
109
|
49
|
33
|
14
|
4
|
4
|
213
|
41
|
11
|
7
|
59
|
272
|
|
- expected existing business contribution
(in excess of
reference rate)
|
196
|
11
|
207
|
99
|
253
|
50
|
196
|
-
|
805
|
5
|
3
|
-
|
8
|
813
|
|
Experience variances
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense
|
7
|
1
|
8
|
(7)
|
6
|
(3)
|
(2)
|
5
|
7
|
1
|
(1)
|
1
|
1
|
8
|
|
- project and other related expenses1
|
(33)
|
(1)
|
(34)
|
(4)
|
(10)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(48)
|
-
|
(4)
|
-
|
(4)
|
(52)
|
|
- mortality/morbidity
|
(2)
|
(7)
|
(9)
|
9
|
(9)
|
(1)
|
-
|
2
|
(8)
|
4
|
6
|
-
|
10
|
2
|
|
- lapses2
|
(3)
|
(11)
|
(14)
|
(15)
|
3
|
1
|
14
|
(4)
|
(15)
|
-
|
(8)
|
-
|
(8)
|
(23)
|
|
- other3
|
12
|
-
|
12
|
4
|
(86)
|
-
|
24
|
(2)
|
(48)
|
2
|
(3)
|
-
|
(1)
|
(49)
|
|
|
(19)
|
(18)
|
(37)
|
(13)
|
(96)
|
(3)
|
36
|
1
|
(112)
|
7
|
(10)
|
1
|
(2)
|
(114)
|
|
Operating assumption
changes:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense
|
10
|
(6)
|
4
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
4
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
1
|
5
|
|
- project and other
related expenses
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
- mortality/morbidity
|
(4)
|
-
|
(4)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(4)
|
-
|
4
|
-
|
4
|
-
|
|
- lapses4
|
7
|
-
|
7
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(15)
|
-
|
(8)
|
-
|
3
|
-
|
3
|
(5)
|
|
- other5
|
(22)
|
(5)
|
(27)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
6
|
(21)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(21)
|
|
|
(9)
|
(11)
|
(20)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(15)
|
6
|
(29)
|
-
|
8
|
-
|
8
|
(21)
|
|
Expected return
on shareholders'
net worth
|
56
|
7
|
63
|
28
|
31
|
13
|
30
|
-
|
165
|
5
|
9
|
2
|
16
|
181
|
|
Other operating variances6
|
(30)
|
3
|
(27)
|
(25)
|
(2)
|
(8)
|
(34)
|
(6)
|
(102)
|
-
|
(2)
|
(4)
|
(6)
|
(108)
|
|
Earnings before tax and non-controlling interests
|
477
|
(6)
|
471
|
200
|
81
|
87
|
231
|
5
|
1,075
|
76
|
56
|
21
|
153
|
1,228
|
1. Project and other related expenses includes higher expenditures related to increased level of regulatory change in the UK.
2. Persistency experience remains volatile across most of our businesses, in part reflecting the wider economic circumstances. Asia reflects an accumulation of small adverse experience across businesses.
3. Other experience includes the marginal impact of new business on value of deferred tax losses in the US and Italy as well as other tax variances in the US.
4. Persistency assumptions include an additional short term provision in Italy reflecting economic circumstances.
5. Other assumption changes include a revision to profit margins on asset management in the UK.
6. Other operating variances include the impacts of modelling refinements in France and Italy and the cost of capital management initiatives in the UK.
Page 15
E2 - Geographical analysis of life MCEV operating earnings continued
|
Restated
Gross of tax and
non-controlling interests
30 June 2011
|
UK
£m
|
Ireland
£m
|
UK & Ireland
£m
|
France
£m
|
United States
£m
|
Spain
£m
|
Italy
£m
|
Other
£m
|
Developed markets
£m
|
Poland
£m
|
Asia
£m
|
Other
£m
|
Higher Growth markets
£m
|
Continuing operations
£m
|
|
Value of new business
|
190
|
2
|
192
|
97
|
(86)
|
49
|
50
|
3
|
305
|
20
|
34
|
10
|
64
|
369
|
|
Earnings from existing business
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected existing
business contribution
(reference rate)
|
79
|
8
|
87
|
57
|
33
|
16
|
12
|
3
|
208
|
36
|
11
|
6
|
53
|
261
|
|
- expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate)
|
190
|
12
|
202
|
71
|
250
|
37
|
35
|
-
|
595
|
12
|
4
|
3
|
19
|
614
|
|
Experience variances
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense
|
11
|
(4)
|
7
|
(3)
|
1
|
-
|
(1)
|
1
|
5
|
3
|
-
|
3
|
6
|
11
|
|
- project and other
related expenses
|
(10)
|
-
|
(10)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(19)
|
-
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(22)
|
|
- mortality/morbidity1
|
4
|
(3)
|
1
|
19
|
(18)
|
(7)
|
5
|
2
|
2
|
5
|
6
|
1
|
12
|
14
|
|
- lapses2
|
(14)
|
(5)
|
(19)
|
3
|
(5)
|
-
|
(3)
|
(1)
|
(25)
|
-
|
(10)
|
1
|
(9)
|
(34)
|
|
- other3
|
(4)
|
(4)
|
(8)
|
14
|
(28)
|
-
|
5
|
5
|
(12)
|
6
|
(2)
|
-
|
4
|
(8)
|
|
|
(13)
|
(16)
|
(29)
|
29
|
(55)
|
(7)
|
6
|
7
|
(49)
|
14
|
(7)
|
3
|
10
|
(39)
|
|
Operating assumption
changes:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense4
|
-
|
(26)
|
(26)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
(25)
|
11
|
5
|
1
|
17
|
(8)
|
|
- project and other
related expenses
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
- mortality/morbidity
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
1
|
1
|
|
- lapses5
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(14)
|
-
|
-
|
(9)
|
(23)
|
-
|
(1)
|
5
|
4
|
(19)
|
|
- other
|
1
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
|
|
1
|
(26)
|
(25)
|
-
|
(14)
|
-
|
-
|
(8)
|
(47)
|
11
|
5
|
6
|
22
|
(25)
|
|
Expected return on shareholders' net worth
|
80
|
14
|
94
|
40
|
40
|
16
|
23
|
1
|
214
|
6
|
7
|
2
|
15
|
229
|
|
Other operating variances6
|
(9)
|
(3)
|
(12)
|
1
|
20
|
-
|
4
|
1
|
14
|
(1)
|
(6)
|
(14)
|
(21)
|
(7)
|
|
Earnings before tax and
non-controlling interests
|
518
|
(9)
|
509
|
295
|
188
|
111
|
130
|
7
|
1,240
|
98
|
48
|
16
|
162
|
1,402
|
1. Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumption set across a number of our businesses, most notably in France. Adverse experience reflects normal volatility in mortality and increased retention limits in the US.
2. Persistency experience remains volatile across most of our businesses, in part reflecting the wider economic circumstances. Asia reflects an accumulation of small adverse experience across businesses.
3. Other experience includes positive tax variances in France and adverse spread variance in the US.
4. Maintenance expense assumptions reflect the adverse impact of reallocating expenses from acquisition to maintenance in Ireland and provision release in Poland.
5. Persistency assumptions have been updated in a number of businesses, including refinement of 2010 assumptions in the US.
6. Other operating variances for the US relate to modelling enhancements offset by the marginal impact of new business on the value of deferred tax losses, and in Other Higher Growth markets, management action to improve persistency.
Page 16
E2 - Geographical analysis of life MCEV operating earnings continued
|
Gross of tax and
non-controlling interests
Full year 2011
|
UK
£m
|
Ireland
£m
|
UK & Ireland
£m
|
France
£m
|
United States
£m
|
Spain
£m
|
Italy
£m
|
Other
£m
|
Developed markets
£m
|
Poland
£m
|
Asia
£m
|
Other
£m
|
Higher Growth markets
£m
|
Continuing operations
£m
|
|
Value of new business
|
380
|
(4)
|
376
|
142
|
(131)
|
86
|
75
|
5
|
553
|
45
|
71
|
20
|
136
|
689
|
|
Earnings from existing business
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected existing
business contribution (reference rate)
|
214
|
14
|
228
|
113
|
62
|
34
|
23
|
7
|
467
|
72
|
16
|
11
|
99
|
566
|
|
- expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate)
|
340
|
26
|
366
|
140
|
515
|
72
|
72
|
1
|
1,166
|
20
|
10
|
3
|
33
|
1,199
|
|
Experience variances
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense1
|
2
|
(8)
|
(6)
|
(14)
|
(46)
|
2
|
(7)
|
5
|
(66)
|
6
|
-
|
(3)
|
3
|
(63)
|
|
- project and other
related expenses1
|
(30)
|
(1)
|
(31)
|
(15)
|
(16)
|
(1)
|
-
|
-
|
(63)
|
-
|
(4)
|
(1)
|
(5)
|
(68)
|
|
- mortality/morbidity2
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
33
|
(28)
|
(5)
|
11
|
2
|
17
|
12
|
7
|
-
|
19
|
36
|
|
- lapses3
|
(11)
|
(12)
|
(23)
|
9
|
5
|
-
|
2
|
(5)
|
(12)
|
4
|
(14)
|
-
|
(10)
|
(22)
|
|
- other4
|
153
|
(4)
|
149
|
13
|
(13)
|
-
|
7
|
-
|
156
|
9
|
(2)
|
-
|
7
|
163
|
|
|
116
|
(23)
|
93
|
26
|
(98)
|
(4)
|
13
|
2
|
32
|
31
|
(13)
|
(4)
|
14
|
46
|
|
Operating assumption changes:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense5
|
63
|
(65)
|
(2)
|
11
|
(54)
|
(4)
|
(28)
|
(2)
|
(79)
|
51
|
19
|
-
|
70
|
(9)
|
|
- project and other
related expenses5
|
(65)
|
-
|
(65)
|
(4)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(69)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(69)
|
|
- mortality/morbidity6
|
(18)
|
-
|
(18)
|
163
|
-
|
(16)
|
-
|
6
|
135
|
22
|
(6)
|
-
|
16
|
151
|
|
- lapses7
|
(1)
|
(57)
|
(58)
|
107
|
(136)
|
(65)
|
(5)
|
(33)
|
(190)
|
37
|
(24)
|
3
|
16
|
(174)
|
|
- other8
|
10
|
-
|
10
|
(33)
|
75
|
-
|
(28)
|
(1)
|
23
|
117
|
-
|
2
|
119
|
142
|
|
|
(11)
|
(122)
|
(133)
|
244
|
(115)
|
(85)
|
(61)
|
(30)
|
(180)
|
227
|
(11)
|
5
|
221
|
41
|
|
Expected return on shareholders' net worth
|
147
|
30
|
177
|
60
|
64
|
32
|
47
|
2
|
382
|
10
|
16
|
3
|
29
|
411
|
|
Other operating variances9
|
7
|
(12)
|
(5)
|
352
|
(56)
|
2
|
(95)
|
(1)
|
197
|
5
|
(11)
|
(14)
|
(20)
|
177
|
|
Earnings before tax and
non-controlling interests
|
1,193
|
(91)
|
1,102
|
1,077
|
241
|
137
|
74
|
(14)
|
2,617
|
410
|
78
|
24
|
512
|
3,129
|
1 Adverse expense experience occurred across a number of businesses.
2 Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumption set across a number of our businesses, most notably in France. Adverse experience reflects normal volatility in mortality and increased retention limits in the US.
3 Persistency experience continues to be somewhat volatile across our businesses. Asia reflects an accumulation of small adverse experience across businesses.
4 Other experience includes tax benefits from the transfer of former RBS joint venture business into the long-term fund in the UK.
5 Maintenance and project expense assumptions have been revised in many regions with a broadly neutral impact on continuing business.
6 Mortality assumptions have been updated in France reflecting experience.
7 Persistency assumptions have been updated in a number of businesses reflecting lower expected lapses in France (AFER), increases due to the economic environment in Ireland and Spain, and, in the US, revisions to dynamic policyholder lapse behaviour.
8 Other operating assumption changes in Poland relate to a change to assumed management actions in relation to product charges, and, in the US, revisions to policyholder utilisation of rider benefits offset by revisions to annuity spread assumptions.
9 Other operating variances relate to modelling changes and the release of a modelling provision in France, and modelling refinements in Italy, and, in the US, the marginal impact of new business on the value of deferred tax losses, with cost of capital transactions and model refinements broadly offsetting.
Page 17
E2 - Geographical analysis of life MCEV operating earnings continued
|
Net of tax and
non-controlling interests
30 June 2012
|
UK
£m
|
Ireland
£m
|
UK & Ireland
£m
|
France
£m
|
United States
£m
|
Spain
£m
|
Italy
£m
|
Other
£m
|
Developed markets
£m
|
Poland
£m
|
Asia
£m
|
Other
£m
|
Higher Growth markets
£m
|
Continuing operations
£m
|
|
Value of new business
|
138
|
(3)
|
135
|
35
|
(90)
|
4
|
4
|
(1)
|
87
|
13
|
29
|
12
|
54
|
141
|
|
Earnings from existing
business
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected existing
business contribution
(reference rate)
|
77
|
5
|
82
|
31
|
21
|
6
|
1
|
3
|
144
|
30
|
8
|
5
|
43
|
187
|
|
- expected existing business
contribution (in excess
of reference rate)
|
149
|
7
|
156
|
61
|
165
|
17
|
56
|
-
|
455
|
3
|
2
|
-
|
5
|
460
|
|
Experience variances
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense
|
5
|
1
|
6
|
(5)
|
4
|
(2)
|
(1)
|
4
|
6
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
1
|
7
|
|
- project and other
related expenses1
|
(25)
|
-
|
(25)
|
(3)
|
(7)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(35)
|
-
|
(3)
|
-
|
(3)
|
(38)
|
|
- mortality/morbidity
|
(1)
|
(5)
|
(6)
|
6
|
(6)
|
(1)
|
-
|
1
|
(6)
|
3
|
5
|
-
|
8
|
2
|
|
- lapses2
|
(3)
|
(7)
|
(10)
|
(9)
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
(2)
|
(15)
|
-
|
(5)
|
-
|
(5)
|
(20)
|
|
- other3
|
9
|
-
|
9
|
4
|
(55)
|
-
|
7
|
(2)
|
(37)
|
2
|
(2)
|
-
|
-
|
(37)
|
|
|
(15)
|
(11)
|
(26)
|
(7)
|
(62)
|
(2)
|
9
|
1
|
(87)
|
5
|
(5)
|
1
|
1
|
(86)
|
|
Operating assumption
changes:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense
|
7
|
(4)
|
3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
3
|
|
- project and other
related expenses
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
- mortality/morbidity
|
(3)
|
-
|
(3)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(3)
|
-
|
3
|
-
|
3
|
-
|
|
- lapses4
|
6
|
-
|
6
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(5)
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
1
|
2
|
|
- other5
|
(17)
|
(2)
|
(19)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
4
|
(15)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(15)
|
|
|
(7)
|
(6)
|
(13)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(5)
|
4
|
(14)
|
-
|
4
|
-
|
4
|
(10)
|
|
Expected return on
shareholders' net worth
|
43
|
4
|
47
|
17
|
20
|
5
|
9
|
-
|
98
|
4
|
7
|
2
|
13
|
111
|
|
Other operating variances6
|
(22)
|
2
|
(20)
|
(13)
|
(1)
|
(4)
|
(10)
|
(5)
|
(53)
|
-
|
(3)
|
(3)
|
(6)
|
(59)
|
|
Earnings after tax and non-controlling interests
|
363
|
(2)
|
361
|
124
|
53
|
26
|
64
|
2
|
630
|
55
|
42
|
17
|
114
|
744
|
1. Project and other related expenses includes higher expenditures related to increased level of regulatory change in the UK
2. Persistency experience remains volatile across most of our businesses, in part reflecting the wider economic circumstances. Asia reflects an accumulation of small adverse experience across businesses.
3. Other experience includes the marginal impact of new business on value of deferred tax losses in the US and Italy as well as other tax variances in the US.
4. Persistency assumptions include an additional short term provision in Italy reflecting economic circumstances.
5. Other assumption changes include a revision to profit margins on asset management in the UK
6. Other operating variances include the impacts of modelling refinements in France and Italy and the cost of capital management initiatives in the UK.
Page 18
E2 - Geographical analysis of life MCEV operating earnings continued
|
Restated
Net of tax and
non-controlling interests
30 June 2011
|
UK
£m
|
Ireland
£m
|
UK & Ireland
£m
|
France
£m
|
United States
£m
|
Spain
£m
|
Italy
£m
|
Other
£m
|
Developed markets
£m
|
Poland
£m
|
Asia
£m
|
Other
£m
|
Higher Growth markets
£m
|
Continuing operations
£m
|
|
Value of new business
|
140
|
1
|
141
|
53
|
(55)
|
17
|
15
|
2
|
173
|
14
|
27
|
9
|
50
|
223
|
|
Earnings from existing
business
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected existing
business contribution
(reference rate)
|
58
|
5
|
63
|
36
|
21
|
6
|
4
|
4
|
134
|
26
|
8
|
4
|
38
|
172
|
|
- expected existing business
contribution (in excess
of reference rate)
|
141
|
9
|
150
|
43
|
162
|
13
|
11
|
-
|
379
|
8
|
3
|
3
|
14
|
393
|
|
Experience variances
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense
|
8
|
(3)
|
5
|
(2)
|
1
|
-
|
(1)
|
2
|
5
|
3
|
-
|
1
|
4
|
9
|
|
- project and other
related expenses
|
(7)
|
-
|
(7)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(12)
|
-
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(15)
|
|
- mortality/morbidity1
|
3
|
(2)
|
1
|
11
|
(12)
|
(3)
|
2
|
1
|
-
|
4
|
5
|
2
|
11
|
11
|
|
- lapses2
|
(10)
|
(3)
|
(13)
|
3
|
(4)
|
(2)
|
(1)
|
(1)
|
(18)
|
-
|
(8)
|
1
|
(7)
|
(25)
|
|
- other3
|
(3)
|
(3)
|
(6)
|
8
|
(18)
|
-
|
2
|
3
|
(11)
|
4
|
(1)
|
-
|
3
|
(8)
|
|
|
(9)
|
(11)
|
(20)
|
18
|
(36)
|
(5)
|
2
|
5
|
(36)
|
11
|
(5)
|
2
|
8
|
(28)
|
|
Operating assumption
changes:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense4
|
-
|
(17)
|
(17)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(17)
|
8
|
3
|
1
|
12
|
(5)
|
|
- project and other
related expenses
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
- mortality/morbidity
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
- lapses5
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(9)
|
-
|
-
|
(8)
|
(17)
|
-
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
(11)
|
|
- other
|
1
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
|
|
1
|
(17)
|
(16)
|
-
|
(9)
|
-
|
-
|
(8)
|
(33)
|
8
|
5
|
5
|
18
|
(15)
|
|
Expected return on
shareholders' net worth
|
60
|
9
|
69
|
24
|
26
|
7
|
8
|
1
|
135
|
4
|
5
|
1
|
10
|
145
|
|
Other operating variances6
|
(6)
|
(2)
|
(8)
|
4
|
13
|
-
|
1
|
1
|
11
|
(1)
|
(5)
|
(11)
|
(17)
|
(6)
|
|
Earnings after tax and non-controlling interests
|
385
|
(6)
|
379
|
178
|
122
|
38
|
41
|
5
|
763
|
70
|
38
|
13
|
121
|
884
|
1. Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumption set across a number of our businesses, most notably in France. Adverse experience reflects normal volatility in mortality and increased retention limits in the US.
2. Persistency experience remains volatile across most of our businesses, in part reflecting the wider economic circumstances. Asia reflects an accumulation of small adverse experience across businesses.
3. Other experience includes positive tax variances in France and adverse spread variance in the US.
4. Maintenance expense assumptions reflect the adverse impact of reallocating expenses from acquisition to maintenance in Ireland and provision release in Poland.
5. Persistency assumptions have been updated in a number of businesses, including refinement of 2010 assumptions in the US.
6. Other operating variances for the US relate to modelling enhancements offset by the marginal impact of new business on the value of deferred tax losses, and in Other Higher Growth markets, management action to improve persistency.
Page 19
E2 - Geographical analysis of life MCEV operating earnings continued
|
Net of tax and
non-controlling interests
Full year 2011
|
UK
£m
|
Ireland
£m
|
UK & Ireland
£m
|
France
£m
|
United States
£m
|
Spain
£m
|
Italy
£m
|
Other
£m
|
Developed markets
£m
|
Poland
£m
|
Asia
£m
|
Other
£m
|
Higher Growth markets
£m
|
Continuing operations
£m
|
|
Value of new business
|
281
|
(3)
|
278
|
79
|
(85)
|
28
|
23
|
4
|
327
|
34
|
55
|
16
|
105
|
432
|
|
Earnings from existing business
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected existing
business contribution (reference rate)
|
158
|
9
|
167
|
71
|
40
|
13
|
7
|
7
|
305
|
51
|
12
|
9
|
72
|
377
|
|
- expected existing business
contribution (in excess
of reference rate)
|
252
|
17
|
269
|
84
|
334
|
26
|
22
|
1
|
736
|
15
|
7
|
3
|
25
|
761
|
|
Experience variances
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense1
|
2
|
(6)
|
(4)
|
(9)
|
(30)
|
1
|
(4)
|
4
|
(42)
|
4
|
-
|
(2)
|
2
|
(40)
|
|
- project and other
related expenses1
|
(22)
|
-
|
(22)
|
(10)
|
(11)
|
(1)
|
-
|
-
|
(44)
|
-
|
(3)
|
(1)
|
(4)
|
(48)
|
|
- mortality/morbidity2
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
21
|
(18)
|
(2)
|
4
|
1
|
8
|
8
|
6
|
-
|
14
|
22
|
|
- lapses3
|
(7)
|
(8)
|
(15)
|
8
|
3
|
(3)
|
-
|
(5)
|
(12)
|
3
|
(11)
|
1
|
(7)
|
(19)
|
|
- other4
|
113
|
(2)
|
111
|
6
|
(9)
|
-
|
2
|
1
|
111
|
7
|
(2)
|
(1)
|
4
|
115
|
|
|
87
|
(15)
|
72
|
16
|
(65)
|
(5)
|
2
|
1
|
21
|
22
|
(10)
|
(3)
|
9
|
30
|
|
Operating assumption changes:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense5
|
47
|
(45)
|
2
|
7
|
(35)
|
(2)
|
(10)
|
(1)
|
(39)
|
36
|
14
|
(1)
|
49
|
10
|
|
- project and other
related expenses5
|
(49)
|
-
|
(49)
|
(2)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(51)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
(51)
|
|
- mortality/morbidity6
|
(14)
|
-
|
(14)
|
101
|
-
|
(5)
|
-
|
4
|
86
|
16
|
(6)
|
1
|
11
|
97
|
|
- lapses7
|
-
|
(38)
|
(38)
|
73
|
(88)
|
(23)
|
(1)
|
(29)
|
(106)
|
26
|
(18)
|
4
|
12
|
(94)
|
|
- other8
|
7
|
-
|
7
|
(21)
|
49
|
-
|
(8)
|
(2)
|
25
|
84
|
-
|
3
|
87
|
112
|
|
|
(9)
|
(83)
|
(92)
|
158
|
(74)
|
(30)
|
(19)
|
(28)
|
(85)
|
162
|
(10)
|
7
|
159
|
74
|
|
Expected return on shareholders' net worth
|
109
|
20
|
129
|
36
|
42
|
13
|
16
|
1
|
237
|
7
|
12
|
2
|
21
|
258
|
|
Other operating variances9
|
6
|
(9)
|
(3)
|
237
|
(36)
|
1
|
(29)
|
2
|
172
|
4
|
(7)
|
(14)
|
(17)
|
155
|
|
Earnings after tax and non-controlling interests
|
884
|
(64)
|
820
|
681
|
156
|
46
|
22
|
(12)
|
1,713
|
295
|
59
|
20
|
374
|
2,087
|
1 Adverse expense experience occurred across a number of businesses.
2 Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumption set across a number of our businesses, most notably in France. Adverse experience reflects normal volatility in mortality and increased retention limits in the US.
3 Persistency experience continues to be somewhat volatile across our businesses. Asia reflects an accumulation of small adverse experience across businesses.
4 Other experience includes tax benefits from the transfer of former RBS joint venture business into the long-term fund in the UK.
5 Maintenance and project expense assumptions have been revised in many regions with a broadly neutral impact on continuing business.
6 Mortality assumptions have been updated in France reflecting experience.
7 Persistency assumptions have been updated in a number of businesses reflecting lower expected lapses in France (AFER), increases due to the economic environment in Ireland and Spain, and, in the US, revisions to dynamic policyholder
lapse behaviour.
8 Other operating assumption changes in Poland relate to a change to assumed management actions in relation to product charges, and, in the US, revisions to policyholder utilisation of rider benefits offset by revisions to annuity spread assumptions.
9 Other operating variances relate to modelling changes and the release of a modelling provision in France, and modelling refinements in Italy, and, in the US, the marginal impact of new business on the value of deferred tax losses, with cost
of capital transactions and model refinements broadly offsetting.
Page 20
E3 - Geographical analysis of fund management operating earnings
The summarised consolidated income statement - MCEV basis, includes earnings from the Group's fund management operations
as analysed below. This excludes the proportion of the results of Aviva Investors fund management businesses and other fund management operations within the Group that arise from the provision of fund management services to our Life businesses.
These results are included within the Life MCEV operating earnings.
|
|
6 months
2012
£m
|
6 months 2011
£m
|
Full year
2011
£m
|
|
Aviva Investors
|
3
|
6
|
21
|
|
United Kingdom
|
4
|
3
|
11
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Total - continuing operations
|
7
|
9
|
32
|
|
Total - discontinued operations
|
-
|
9
|
9
|
|
Total
|
7
|
18
|
41
|
E4 - Other operations
Where subsidiaries provide services to our life business, that proportion has been excluded. These results are included within the Life MCEV operating return.
|
|
6 months 2012
£m
|
6 months 2011
£m
|
Full year
2011
£m
|
|
Developed markets
|
(19)
|
(13)
|
(41)
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
(8)
|
(17)
|
(30)
|
|
Other operations
|
(69)
|
(50)
|
(133)
|
|
Total - continuing operations
|
(96)
|
(80)
|
(204)
|
|
Total - discontinued operations
|
-
|
7
|
7
|
|
Total
|
(96)
|
(73)
|
(197)
|
E5 - Exceptional items and Integration and restructuring costs
There were no exceptional items in the first half of 2012 (HY11: nil).
Integration and restructuring costs are £188 million (HY11: £60 million). This includes costs associated with preparing the businesses for Solvency II implementation of £74 million, a £44 million charge relating to the merging of the UK and Ireland businesses and a £17 million expense associated with the transformation of Aviva Investors. Expenditure relating to other restructuring exercises across the Group are £53 million.
Page 21
E6 - Segmentation of condensed consolidated statement of financial position
|
|
30 June 2012
|
|
Restated
30 June 2011
|
|
Full year 2011
|
|
|
Life and related businesses
£m
|
General business and other
£m
|
Group
£m
|
|
Life and related businesses
£m
|
General business and other
£m
|
Group
£m
|
|
Life and related businesses
£m
|
General business and other
£m
|
Group
£m
|
|
Total assets before acquired value of
in-force long-term business
|
282,274
|
29,717
|
311,991
|
|
291,631
|
29,880
|
321,511
|
|
281,471
|
30,090
|
311,561
|
|
Acquired additional value of in-force
long-term business
|
618
|
-
|
618
|
|
1,095
|
-
|
1,095
|
|
815
|
-
|
815
|
|
Total assets included in the IFRS statement of financial position
|
282,892
|
29,717
|
312,609
|
|
292,726
|
29,880
|
322,606
|
|
282,286
|
30,090
|
312,376
|
|
Liabilities of the long-term business
|
(267,996)
|
-
|
(267,996)
|
|
(277,171)
|
-
|
(277,171)
|
|
(266,622)
|
-
|
(266,622)
|
|
Liabilities of the general insurance and
other businesses
|
-
|
(30,008)
|
(30,008)
|
|
-
|
(30,230)
|
(30,230)
|
|
-
|
(30,391)
|
(30,391)
|
|
Net assets on a statutory IFRS basis
|
14,896
|
(291)
|
14,605
|
|
15,555
|
(350)
|
15,205
|
|
15,664
|
(301)
|
15,363
|
|
Additional value of in-force
long-term business1
|
1,064
|
-
|
1,064
|
|
4,169
|
-
|
4,169
|
|
132
|
-
|
132
|
|
Net assets on an MCEV basis2
|
15,960
|
(291)
|
15,669
|
|
19,724
|
(350)
|
19,374
|
|
15,796
|
(301)
|
15,495
|
|
Equity capital, capital reserves, shares held
by employee trusts and other reserves
|
|
|
6,222
|
|
|
|
6,773
|
|
|
|
6,389
|
|
IFRS basis retained earnings
|
|
|
4,854
|
|
|
|
5,303
|
|
|
|
5,954
|
|
Additional MCEV basis retained earnings
|
|
|
1,203
|
|
|
|
3,528
|
|
|
|
486
|
|
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc on an
MCEV basis
|
|
|
12,279
|
|
|
|
15,604
|
|
|
|
12,829
|
|
Preference share capital, direct capital
instruments and fixed rate tier 1 notes
|
|
|
1,582
|
|
|
|
1,190
|
|
|
|
1,190
|
|
Non-controlling interests
|
|
|
1,808
|
|
|
|
2,580
|
|
|
|
1,476
|
|
MCEV basis total equity
|
|
|
15,669
|
|
|
|
19,374
|
|
|
|
15,495
|
1. The analysis between the Group's and non-controlling interests' share of the additional value of in-force long-term business is as follows:
|
|
30 June
2012
£m
|
Full year
2011
£m
|
Movement
in period
£m
|
|
Group's share included in shareholders' funds
|
1,203
|
486
|
717
|
|
Non-controlling interests' share
|
309
|
(54)
|
363
|
|
Movements in AFS securities
|
(448)
|
(300)
|
(148)
|
|
Additional value of in-force long-term business
|
1,064
|
132
|
932
|
2. Analysis of net assets on an MCEV basis is made up as follows:
|
|
30 June
2012
£m
|
Restated
30 June
2011
£m
|
Full year
2011
£m
|
|
Embedded value
|
12,902
|
15,300
|
12,274
|
|
Non-controlling interests
|
1,152
|
1,850
|
820
|
|
|
14,054
|
17,150
|
13,094
|
|
Goodwill and intangible assets allocated to long-term business3
|
1,234
|
2,378
|
2,117
|
|
Notional allocation of IAS19 pension fund surplus/(deficit) to long-term business4
|
672
|
196
|
585
|
|
Long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis
|
15,960
|
19,724
|
15,796
|
3. Goodwill and intangible assets includes amounts related to associated undertakings and joint ventures.
4. The value of the Aviva Staff Pension Scheme surplus has been notionally allocated between segments, based on current funding and, within the long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis, the Life proportion has been included. The pension fund surplus notionally allocated to long-term business is net of the agreed funding borne by the UK with-profit funds.
Page 22
E7 - Analysis of life and pension earnings
The following table provides an analysis of the movement in embedded value for covered business. The analysis is shown separately for free surplus, required capital and the value of in-force covered business, and includes amounts transferred between these categories. All figures are shown net of tax and non-controlling interests.
|
|
Continuing operations
|
|
Net of tax and
non-controlling interests
30 June 2012
|
Free surplus
£m
|
Required
capital1
£m
|
VIF
£m
|
Total
MCEV
£m
|
|
Opening Group MCEV
|
1,344
|
7,965
|
2,965
|
12,274
|
|
New business value
|
(449)
|
249
|
341
|
141
|
|
Expected existing business contribution (reference rate)
|
-
|
-
|
187
|
187
|
|
Expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate)
|
-
|
-
|
460
|
460
|
|
Transfers from VIF and required capital to the free surplus
|
922
|
(345)
|
(577)
|
-
|
|
Experience variances
|
(77)
|
8
|
(17)
|
(86)
|
|
Assumption changes
|
(28)
|
22
|
(4)
|
(10)
|
|
Expected return on shareholders' net worth
|
27
|
84
|
-
|
111
|
|
Other operating variances
|
135
|
3
|
(197)
|
(59)
|
|
Operating MCEV earnings
|
530
|
21
|
193
|
744
|
|
Economic variances
|
(248)
|
196
|
546
|
494
|
|
Other non-operating variances2
|
(13)
|
-
|
2
|
(11)
|
|
Total MCEV earnings
|
269
|
217
|
741
|
1,227
|
|
Capital and dividend flows3
|
(508)
|
-
|
-
|
(508)
|
|
Foreign exchange variances
|
3
|
(116)
|
5
|
(108)
|
|
Acquired/divested business4
|
5
|
(4)
|
16
|
17
|
|
Closing MCEV
|
1,113
|
8,062
|
3,727
|
12,902
|
1. Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.
2. Other non-operating variances relate to costs for Solvency II implementation and other restructuring exercises.
3. Included within capital and dividend flows is the transfer to Life and related businesses from other segments consisting of service company profits and losses during the reported period that have emerged from the value of in-force. Since the "look through" into service companies includes only future profits and losses, these amounts must be eliminated from the closing embedded value.
4. Acquired/divested business includes the acquisition of Pelayo Vida on 17 January 2012.
|
|
Continuing operations
|
|
Discontinued operations
|
|
Total
|
|
Restated
Net of tax and
non-controlling interests
30 June 2011
|
Free
surplus
£m
|
Required
capital1
£m
|
VIF
£m
|
Total
MCEV
£m
|
|
Free surplus
£m
|
Required
capital1
£m
|
VIF
£m
|
Total
MCEV
£m
|
|
Total MCEV
£m
|
|
Opening Group MCEV
|
1,247
|
7,398
|
5,733
|
14,378
|
|
356
|
944
|
196
|
1,496
|
|
15,874
|
|
New business value
|
(488)
|
319
|
392
|
223
|
|
(29)
|
14
|
15
|
-
|
|
223
|
|
Expected existing business contribution (reference rate)
|
-
|
-
|
172
|
172
|
|
-
|
-
|
7
|
7
|
|
179
|
|
Expected existing business contribution (in excess of
reference rate)
|
-
|
-
|
393
|
393
|
|
-
|
-
|
41
|
41
|
|
434
|
|
Transfers from VIF and required capital to the free surplus
|
897
|
(309)
|
(588)
|
-
|
|
85
|
(25)
|
(60)
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
Experience variances
|
25
|
50
|
(103)
|
(28)
|
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
2
|
|
(26)
|
|
Assumption changes
|
68
|
(126)
|
43
|
(15)
|
|
-
|
-
|
42
|
42
|
|
27
|
|
Expected return on shareholders' net worth
|
48
|
97
|
-
|
145
|
|
5
|
12
|
-
|
17
|
|
162
|
|
Other operating variances
|
(134)
|
23
|
105
|
(6)
|
|
(2)
|
3
|
(4)
|
(3)
|
|
(9)
|
|
Operating MCEV earnings
|
416
|
54
|
414
|
884
|
|
61
|
4
|
41
|
106
|
|
990
|
|
Economic variances
|
119
|
23
|
31
|
173
|
|
212
|
(83)
|
(255)
|
(126)
|
|
47
|
|
Other non-operating variances2
|
7
|
(19)
|
15
|
3
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
3
|
|
Total MCEV earnings
|
542
|
58
|
460
|
1,060
|
|
273
|
(79)
|
(214)
|
(20)
|
|
1,040
|
|
Capital and dividend flows3
|
(414)
|
-
|
-
|
(414)
|
|
(3)
|
-
|
-
|
(3)
|
|
(417)
|
|
Foreign exchange variances
|
18
|
110
|
148
|
276
|
|
16
|
28
|
2
|
46
|
|
322
|
|
Acquired/divested business4
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
(642)
|
(893)
|
16
|
(1,519)
|
|
(1,519)
|
|
Closing MCEV
|
1,393
|
7,566
|
6,341
|
15,300
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
15,300
|
1. Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.
2. Other non-operating variances primarily relat to costs for Solvency II implementation and other restructuring exercises.
3. Included within capital and dividend flows is the transfer to Life and related businesses from other segments consisting of service company profits and losses during the reported period that have emerged from the value of in-force. Since the "look through" into service companies includes only future profits and losses, these amounts must be eliminated from the closing embedded value.
4. Divested business is the removal of Delta Lloyd from covered business subsequent to the reduction of our holding to 42% on 6 May 2011.
Page 23
E7 - Analysis of life and pension earnings continued
|
|
Continuing operations
|
|
Discontinued operations
|
|
Total
|
|
Net of tax and
non-controlling interests
Full year 2011
|
Free surplus
£m
|
Required
capital1
£m
|
VIF
£m
|
Total
MCEV
£m
|
|
Free surplus
£m
|
Required
capital1
£m
|
VIF
£m
|
Total
MCEV
£m
|
|
Total
MCEV
£m
|
|
Opening Group MCEV
|
1,247
|
7,398
|
5,733
|
14,378
|
|
356
|
944
|
196
|
1,496
|
|
15,874
|
|
New business value
|
(905)
|
559
|
778
|
432
|
|
(29)
|
14
|
15
|
-
|
|
432
|
|
Expected existing business contribution (reference rate)
|
-
|
-
|
377
|
377
|
|
-
|
-
|
7
|
7
|
|
384
|
|
Expected existing business contribution (in excess of
reference rate)
|
-
|
-
|
761
|
761
|
|
-
|
-
|
41
|
41
|
|
802
|
|
Transfers from VIF and required capital to the free surplus
|
1,822
|
(583)
|
(1,239)
|
-
|
|
85
|
(25)
|
(60)
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
Experience variances
|
45
|
161
|
(176)
|
30
|
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
2
|
|
32
|
|
Assumption changes
|
96
|
(92)
|
70
|
74
|
|
-
|
-
|
42
|
42
|
|
116
|
|
Expected return on shareholders' net worth
|
91
|
167
|
-
|
258
|
|
5
|
12
|
-
|
17
|
|
275
|
|
Other operating variances
|
118
|
15
|
22
|
155
|
|
(2)
|
3
|
(4)
|
(3)
|
|
152
|
|
Operating MCEV earnings
|
1,267
|
227
|
593
|
2,087
|
|
61
|
4
|
41
|
106
|
|
2,193
|
|
Economic variances
|
(704)
|
452
|
(3,132)
|
(3,384)
|
|
212
|
(83)
|
(255)
|
(126)
|
|
(3,510)
|
|
Other non-operating variances2
|
(51)
|
(18)
|
49
|
(20)
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
(20)
|
|
Total MCEV earnings
|
512
|
661
|
(2,490)
|
(1,317)
|
|
273
|
(79)
|
(214)
|
(20)
|
|
(1,337)
|
|
Capital and dividend flows3,4
|
(398)
|
-
|
(92)
|
(490)
|
|
(3)
|
-
|
-
|
(3)
|
|
(493)
|
|
Foreign exchange variances
|
(17)
|
(94)
|
(186)
|
(297)
|
|
16
|
28
|
2
|
46
|
|
(251)
|
|
Acquired/divested business5
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
(642)
|
(893)
|
16
|
(1,519)
|
|
(1,519)
|
|
Closing MCEV
|
1,344
|
7,965
|
2,965
|
12,274
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
12,274
|
1 Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.
2 Other non-operating variances are described under Exceptional items in note E5.
3 Included within capital and dividend flows is the transfer to Life and related businesses from other segments consisting of service company profits and losses during the reported period that have emerged from the value of in-force. Since the 'look through' into service companies includes only future profits and losses, these amounts must be eliminated from the closing embedded value.
4 As a result of the January 2012 announced disposal of the Czech, Hungarian, and Romanian businesses, the VIF movement reflects the write-down of this business to the IFRS carrying value.
5. Divested business is the removal of Delta Lloyd from covered business subsequent to the reduction of our holding to 42% on 6 May 2011.
Page 24
E8 - Life MCEV operating earnings
The table below presents the life and pensions MCEV earnings broken down into constituent parts. The life and pensions MCEV operating earnings comprise: the value of new business written during the year; the earnings from existing business including other operating variances; and the expected investment return on the shareholders' net worth.
These components are calculated using economic assumptions as at the start of the year (in-force business) or start of the quarter (new business) and operating (demographic and expenses) assumptions as at the end of the year.
|
Gross of tax and
non-controlling interests
|
6 months
2012
£m
|
Restated
6 months
2011
£m
|
Full year
2011
£m
|
|
Value of new business
|
205
|
369
|
689
|
|
Earnings from existing business
|
|
|
|
|
- expected returns at the reference rate
|
272
|
261
|
566
|
|
- expected returns in excess of the reference rate
|
813
|
614
|
1,199
|
|
- expected returns
|
1,085
|
875
|
1,765
|
|
- experience variances
|
(114)
|
(39)
|
46
|
|
- operating assumption changes
|
(21)
|
(25)
|
41
|
|
Other operating variance
|
(108)
|
(7)
|
177
|
|
Expected return on shareholders' net worth
|
181
|
229
|
411
|
|
Life and Pensions operating earnings before tax
|
1,228
|
1,402
|
3,129
|
|
Economic Variances
|
1,173
|
81
|
(6,541)
|
|
Other non-operating variances
|
(14)
|
6
|
(32)
|
|
Life and Pensions earnings before tax
|
2,387
|
1,489
|
(3,444)
|
|
Tax on operating earnings
|
(348)
|
(408)
|
(908)
|
|
Tax on other activities
|
(398)
|
(26)
|
2,098
|
|
Life and Pensions earnings after tax - continuing operations
|
1,641
|
1,055
|
(2,254)
|
|
Life and Pensions earnings after tax - discontinued operations
|
-
|
(33)
|
(33)
|
|
Total Life and Pensions earnings after tax
|
1,641
|
1,022
|
(2,287)
|
There were no separate development costs reported in these years.
Other non-operating variances are described under Exceptional items in note E5.
The table above presents a summarised breakdown of the life and pensions MCEV earnings on a gross of non-controlling interests basis and gross of tax with tax shown separately. The Group favours the gross presentation for consistency with the IFRS results. The table below compares the key items on the different bases as the subsequent analysis is provided predominantly on a net of tax and non-controlling interests basis as preferred by the CFO Forum Principles.
Key indicators
|
|
6 months 2012
|
|
Restated
6 months 2011
|
|
Full year 2011
|
|
|
Net of non-controlling interests
and tax
£m
|
Gross of non-controlling interests
and tax
£m
|
|
Net of non-controlling interests
and tax
£m
|
Gross of non-controlling
interests
and tax
£m
|
|
Net of non-controlling interests
and tax
£m
|
Gross of non-controlling interests
and tax
£m
|
|
Value of new business - continuing operations
|
141
|
205
|
|
223
|
369
|
|
432
|
689
|
|
Value of new business - discontinued operations
|
-
|
-
|
|
-
|
1
|
|
-
|
1
|
|
Total value of new business
|
141
|
205
|
|
223
|
370
|
|
432
|
690
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Life and pensions operating return - continuing operations
|
744
|
1,228
|
|
884
|
1,402
|
|
2,087
|
3,129
|
|
Life and pensions operating return - discontinued operations
|
-
|
-
|
|
106
|
270
|
|
106
|
270
|
|
Life and pensions operating return
|
744
|
1,228
|
|
990
|
1,672
|
|
2,193
|
3,399
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Life and pensions earnings - continuing operations
|
1,227
|
2,387
|
|
1,060
|
1,489
|
|
(1,317)
|
(3,444)
|
|
Life and pensions earnings - discontinued operations
|
-
|
-
|
|
(20)
|
(46)
|
|
(20)
|
(46)
|
|
Life and pensions earnings
|
1,227
|
2,387
|
|
1,040
|
1,443
|
|
(1,337)
|
(3,490)
|
Page 25
E9 - Free surplus emergence
|
|
Existing business
|
|
New business
|
|
Total business
|
|
Net of tax and
non-controlling interests
30 June 2012
|
Transfer from VIF to net worth £m
|
Return on net worth
£m
|
Impact of experience variances and assumption changes on net worth
£m
|
Release of required capital to free surplus
£m
|
Total existing business surplus generation
£m
|
|
Impact on
net worth
£m
|
Reduction in free surplus from required capital
£m
|
Total new business surplus generation
£m
|
|
Total free surplus generation
£m
|
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
|
183
|
47
|
196
|
(13)
|
413
|
|
(70)
|
19
|
(51)
|
|
362
|
|
Developed markets excluding United Kingdom & Ireland
|
293
|
51
|
(137)
|
223
|
430
|
|
(89)
|
(241)
|
(330)
|
|
100
|
|
Developed markets
|
476
|
98
|
59
|
210
|
843
|
|
(159)
|
(222)
|
(381)
|
|
462
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
101
|
13
|
4
|
18
|
136
|
|
(41)
|
(27)
|
(68)
|
|
68
|
|
Total
|
577
|
111
|
63
|
228
|
979
|
|
(200)
|
(249)
|
(449)
|
|
530
|
|
|
Existing business
|
|
New business
|
|
Total business
|
|
Net of tax and
non-controlling interests
30 June 2011
|
Transfer from VIF to net worth £m
|
Return on net worth
£m
|
Impact of experience variances and assumption changes on
net worth
£m
|
Release of required capital to free surplus
£m
|
Total existing business
surplus generation
£m
|
|
Impact on
net worth
£m
|
Reduction in free surplus from required capital
£m
|
Total new business surplus generation
£m
|
|
Total free surplus generation
£m
|
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
|
179
|
69
|
(86)
|
97
|
259
|
|
(34)
|
(47)
|
(81)
|
|
178
|
|
Developed markets excluding United Kingdom & Ireland
|
313
|
66
|
(23)
|
164
|
520
|
|
(90)
|
(243)
|
(333)
|
|
187
|
|
Developed markets
|
492
|
135
|
(109)
|
261
|
779
|
|
(124)
|
(290)
|
(414)
|
|
365
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
96
|
10
|
15
|
4
|
125
|
|
(45)
|
(29)
|
(74)
|
|
51
|
|
Total - continuing operations
|
588
|
145
|
(94)
|
265
|
904
|
|
(169)
|
(319)
|
(488)
|
|
416
|
|
Total - discontinued operations
|
60
|
17
|
3
|
10
|
90
|
|
(15)
|
(14)
|
(29)
|
|
61
|
|
Total
|
648
|
162
|
(91)
|
275
|
994
|
|
(184)
|
(333)
|
(517)
|
|
477
|
|
|
Existing business
|
|
New business
|
|
Total business
|
|
Net of tax and
non-controlling interests
Full year 2011
|
Transfer from VIF to net worth £m
|
Return on net worth
£m
|
Impact of experience variances and assumption changes on
net worth
£m
|
Release of required capital to free surplus
£m
|
Total existing business
surplus generation
£m
|
|
Impact on
net worth
£m
|
Reduction in free surplus from required capital
£m
|
Total new business surplus generation
£m
|
|
Total free surplus generation
£m
|
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
|
420
|
129
|
204
|
(72)
|
681
|
|
(121)
|
(6)
|
(127)
|
|
554
|
|
Developed markets excluding United Kingdom & Ireland
|
627
|
108
|
102
|
397
|
1,234
|
|
(139)
|
(502)
|
(641)
|
|
593
|
|
Developed markets
|
1,047
|
237
|
306
|
325
|
1,915
|
|
(260)
|
(508)
|
(768)
|
|
1,147
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
192
|
21
|
37
|
7
|
257
|
|
(86)
|
(51)
|
(137)
|
|
120
|
|
Total - continuing operations
|
1,239
|
258
|
343
|
332
|
2,172
|
|
(346)
|
(559)
|
(905)
|
|
1,267
|
|
Total - discontinued operations
|
60
|
17
|
3
|
10
|
90
|
|
(15)
|
(14)
|
(29)
|
|
61
|
|
Total
|
1,299
|
275
|
346
|
342
|
2,262
|
|
(361)
|
(573)
|
(934)
|
|
1,328
|
Page 26
E10 - Maturity profile of business
(a) Total in-force business
To show the profile of the VIF emergence, the value of VIF in the statements of financial position has been split into five year tranches depending on the date when the profit is expected to emerge.
|
Net of non-controlling interest
30 June 2012
£m
|
0-5
|
6-10
|
11-15
|
16-20
|
20+
|
Total
|
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
|
319
|
780
|
709
|
355
|
768
|
2,931
|
|
Developed markets excluding United Kingdom & Ireland
|
255
|
(306)
|
(213)
|
(66)
|
(234)
|
(564)
|
|
Developed markets
|
574
|
474
|
496
|
289
|
534
|
2,367
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
624
|
338
|
179
|
111
|
108
|
1,360
|
|
Total
|
1,198
|
812
|
675
|
400
|
642
|
3,727
|
|
Net of non-controlling interest
Full year 2011
£m
|
0-5
|
6-10
|
11-15
|
16-20
|
20+
|
Total
|
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
|
177
|
866
|
704
|
312
|
663
|
2,722
|
|
Developed markets excluding United Kingdom & Ireland
|
(34)
|
(499)
|
(205)
|
(68)
|
(272)
|
(1,078)
|
|
Developed markets
|
143
|
367
|
499
|
244
|
391
|
1,644
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
600
|
332
|
177
|
106
|
106
|
1,321
|
|
Total
|
743
|
699
|
676
|
350
|
497
|
2,965
|
(b) New business
To show the profile of the VIF emergence, the value of new business has been split into five year tranches depending on the date when the profit is expected to emerge.
|
Net of non-controlling interest
30 June 2012
£m
|
0-5
|
6-10
|
11-15
|
16-20
|
20+
|
Total
|
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
|
50
|
45
|
31
|
22
|
57
|
205
|
|
Developed markets excluding United Kingdom & Ireland
|
45
|
4
|
10
|
0
|
(18)
|
41
|
|
Developed markets
|
95
|
49
|
41
|
22
|
39
|
246
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
48
|
20
|
10
|
8
|
9
|
95
|
|
Total
|
143
|
69
|
51
|
30
|
48
|
341
|
|
Net of non-controlling interest
Full year 2011
£m
|
0-5
|
6-10
|
11-15
|
16-20
|
20+
|
Total
|
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
|
104
|
61
|
36
|
26
|
172
|
399
|
|
Developed markets excluding United Kingdom & Ireland
|
143
|
(39)
|
59
|
23
|
2
|
188
|
|
Developed markets
|
247
|
22
|
95
|
49
|
174
|
587
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
101
|
46
|
22
|
13
|
9
|
191
|
|
Total - continuing operations
|
348
|
68
|
117
|
62
|
183
|
778
|
|
Total - discontinued operations1
|
(8)
|
11
|
10
|
(1)
|
3
|
15
|
|
Total
|
340
|
79
|
127
|
61
|
186
|
793
|
1 Current period discontinued operations represent the results of Delta Lloyd up to 6 May 2011 only.
Page 27
E11 - Segmental analysis of life and related business embedded value
|
Net of
non-controlling interests
30 June 2012
|
Free surplus
£m
|
Required
capital1
£m
|
VIF
£m
|
Total
MCEV
£m
|
|
United Kingdom
|
1,093
|
2,797
|
2,496
|
6,386
|
|
Ireland
|
21
|
310
|
435
|
766
|
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
|
1,114
|
3,107
|
2,931
|
7,152
|
|
France2
|
(199)
|
1,971
|
992
|
2,764
|
|
United States3
|
3
|
1,634
|
(1,311)
|
326
|
|
Spain
|
109
|
219
|
32
|
360
|
|
Italy4
|
(216)
|
727
|
(314)
|
197
|
|
Other
|
38
|
22
|
37
|
97
|
|
Developed markets
|
849
|
7,680
|
2,367
|
10,896
|
|
Poland
|
91
|
104
|
951
|
1,146
|
|
Asia
|
146
|
256
|
297
|
699
|
|
Other
|
27
|
22
|
112
|
161
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
264
|
382
|
1,360
|
2,006
|
|
Total
|
1,113
|
8,062
|
3,727
|
12,902
|
1. Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.
2. France has a positive surplus on a statutory basis.
3. Aviva USA's holding company debt amounting to £738 million at 30 June 2012 has been included within non-covered business.
4. Required capital in Italy reflects the current economic environment and is in excess of regulatory requirements. The increase from full year 2011 results from a true-up of prior estimates.
|
Restated Net of
non-controlling interests
30 June 2011
|
Free
surplus
£m
|
Required
capital1
£m
|
VIF
£m
|
Total
MCEV
£m
|
|
United Kingdom
|
1,099
|
2,919
|
2,621
|
6,639
|
|
Ireland
|
10
|
353
|
454
|
817
|
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
|
1,109
|
3,272
|
3,075
|
7,456
|
|
France2
|
(110)
|
1,854
|
1,537
|
3,281
|
|
United States2,3
|
(188)
|
1,433
|
(76)
|
1,169
|
|
Spain
|
119
|
265
|
250
|
634
|
|
Italy
|
176
|
340
|
32
|
548
|
|
Other
|
64
|
23
|
143
|
230
|
|
Developed markets
|
1,170
|
7,187
|
4961
|
13,318
|
|
Poland
|
95
|
120
|
920
|
1,135
|
|
Asia
|
117
|
226
|
364
|
707
|
|
Other
|
11
|
33
|
96
|
140
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
223
|
379
|
1,380
|
1,982
|
|
Total
|
1,393
|
7,566
|
6,341
|
15,300
|
1. Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.
2. France and Aviva USA have a positive surplus on a statutory basis.
3. Aviva USA's holding company debt amounting to £709 million at 30 June 2011 has been included within non-covered business.
|
Net of
non-controlling interests
Full year 2011
|
Free
surplus
£m
|
Required
capital1
£m
|
VIF
£m
|
Total
MCEV
£m
|
|
United Kingdom
|
1,036
|
2,859
|
2,320
|
6,215
|
|
Ireland
|
40
|
343
|
400
|
783
|
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
|
1,076
|
3,202
|
2,720
|
6,998
|
|
France2
|
(145)
|
2,048
|
800
|
2,703
|
|
United States2,3
|
(11)
|
1,575
|
(1,362)
|
202
|
|
Spain
|
118
|
227
|
105
|
450
|
|
Italy4
|
8
|
499
|
(658)
|
(151)
|
|
Other
|
39
|
21
|
38
|
98
|
|
Developed markets
|
1,085
|
7,572
|
1,643
|
10,300
|
|
Poland
|
131
|
102
|
929
|
1,162
|
|
Asia
|
98
|
270
|
300
|
668
|
|
Other
|
30
|
21
|
93
|
144
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
259
|
393
|
1,322
|
1,974
|
|
Total
|
1,344
|
7,965
|
2,965
|
12,274
|
1 Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.
2 France and Aviva USA have a positive surplus on a statutory basis.
3 Aviva USA's holding company debt amounting to £736 million at 31 December 2011 has been included within non-covered business.
4 Negative MCEV in Italy results from widening of spreads on sovereign debt over the year
The required capital across our life businesses varies between 100% and 325% of EU minimum or equivalent. The weighted average level of required capital for our life business expressed as a percentage of the EU minimum (or equivalent) solvency margin has increased to 138% (FY2011: 135%). These levels of required capital are used in the calculation of the Group's embedded value to evaluate the cost of locked in capital. At 30 June 2012 the aggregate regulatory requirements based on the EU minimum test amounted to £5.8 billion (FY2011: £5.9 billion). At this date, the actual net worth held in our long-term business was £9.1 billion (FY2011: £9.3 billion) which represents 157% (FY2011: 158%) of these minimum requirements.
Page 28
E12 - Risk allowance within present value of in-force (VIF)
Within the VIF in the tables, there are additional allowances for risks not included within the basic present value of future
profits calculation.
|
Net of
non-controlling interests
30 June 2012
|
PVFP
£m
|
Frictional costs
£m
|
Non-hedgeable risks
£m
|
Time value of financial options and guarantees
£m
|
VIF
£m
|
|
United Kingdom
|
3,176
|
(238)
|
(386)
|
(56)
|
2,496
|
|
Ireland
|
473
|
(10)
|
(27)
|
(1)
|
435
|
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
|
3,649
|
(248)
|
(413)
|
(57)
|
2,931
|
|
France
|
1,838
|
(115)
|
(190)
|
(541)
|
992
|
|
United States
|
(567)
|
(145)
|
(70)
|
(529)
|
(1,311)
|
|
Spain
|
97
|
(9)
|
(43)
|
(13)
|
32
|
|
Italy
|
(246)
|
(1)
|
(17)
|
(50)
|
(314)
|
|
Other
|
46
|
(1)
|
(6)
|
(2)
|
37
|
|
Developed markets
|
4,817
|
(519)
|
(739)
|
(1,192)
|
2,367
|
|
Poland
|
1,114
|
(11)
|
(149)
|
(3)
|
951
|
|
Asia
|
448
|
(27)
|
(72)
|
(52)
|
297
|
|
Other
|
115
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
-
|
112
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
1,677
|
(39)
|
(223)
|
(55)
|
1,360
|
|
Total
|
6,494
|
(558)
|
(962)
|
(1,247)
|
3,727
|
The Time Value of Options and Guarantees has become more negative by £379 million to £(1,247) million, reflecting adverse impacts from economic movements; in particular, increases in swaption volatility and decreases in risk-free rates.
|
Restated
Net of
non-controlling interests
30 June 2011
|
PVFP
£m
|
Frictional costs
£m
|
Non-hedgeable risks
£m
|
Time value of financial options and guarantees
£m
|
VIF
£m
|
|
United Kingdom
|
3,287
|
(297)
|
(332)
|
(37)
|
2,621
|
|
Ireland
|
499
|
(16)
|
(26)
|
(3)
|
454
|
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
|
3,786
|
(313)
|
(358)
|
(40)
|
3,075
|
|
France
|
2,287
|
(172)
|
(187)
|
(391)
|
1,537
|
|
United States
|
441
|
(135)
|
(53)
|
(329)
|
(76)
|
|
Spain
|
324
|
(18)
|
(43)
|
(13)
|
250
|
|
Italy
|
133
|
(21)
|
(12)
|
(68)
|
32
|
|
Other
|
155
|
(1)
|
(9)
|
(2)
|
143
|
|
Developed markets
|
7,126
|
(660)
|
(662)
|
(843)
|
4,961
|
|
Poland
|
1,062
|
(15)
|
(122)
|
(5)
|
920
|
|
Asia
|
469
|
(25)
|
(60)
|
(20)
|
364
|
|
Other
|
100
|
(2)
|
(2)
|
-
|
96
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
1,631
|
(42)
|
(184)
|
(25)
|
1,380
|
|
Total
|
8,757
|
(702)
|
(846)
|
(868)
|
6,341
|
|
Net of
non-controlling interests
Full year 2011
|
PVFP
£m
|
Frictional costs
£m
|
Non-hedgeable risks
£m
|
Time value of financial options and guarantees
£m
|
VIF
£m
|
|
United Kingdom
|
2,977
|
(241)
|
(389)
|
(27)
|
2,320
|
|
Ireland
|
439
|
(14)
|
(22)
|
(3)
|
400
|
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
|
3,416
|
(255)
|
(411)
|
(30)
|
2,720
|
|
France
|
1,721
|
(147)
|
(182)
|
(592)
|
800
|
|
United States
|
(513)
|
(160)
|
(67)
|
(622)
|
(1,362)
|
|
Spain
|
176
|
(12)
|
(45)
|
(14)
|
105
|
|
Italy
|
(550)
|
(3)
|
(20)
|
(85)
|
(658)
|
|
Other
|
47
|
(1)
|
(6)
|
(2)
|
38
|
|
Developed markets
|
4,297
|
(578)
|
(731)
|
(1,345)
|
1,643
|
|
Poland
|
1,088
|
(11)
|
(145)
|
(3)
|
929
|
|
Asia
|
455
|
(26)
|
(67)
|
(62)
|
300
|
|
Other
|
96
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
-
|
93
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
1,639
|
(38)
|
(214)
|
(65)
|
1,322
|
|
Total
|
5,936
|
(616)
|
(945)
|
(1,410)
|
2,965
|
Page 29
E13 - Implied discount rates (IDR)
In the valuation of a block of business, the implied discount rate is the rate of discount such that a traditional embedded value calculation for the covered business equates to the MCEV.
The cash flows projected are the expected future cash flows including expected investment cash flows from equities, bonds and properties earning a risk premium in excess of risk free, statutory reserves and required capital. The risk premiums used are consistent with those used in the expected existing business contribution within operating earnings. As the risk premiums are positive, a discount rate higher than risk-free is required to give a value equal to the market-consistent embedded value.
Average derived risk discount rates are shown below for the embedded value.
|
|
30 June
2012
%
|
Full year
2011
%
|
|
United Kingdom
|
8.5%
|
9.3%
|
|
Ireland
|
2.6%
|
4.1%
|
|
United Kingdom & Ireland
|
7.6%
|
8.5%
|
|
France
|
6.8%
|
7.9%
|
|
United States1
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Spain
|
16.5%
|
15.0%
|
|
Italy1
|
32.0%
|
n/a
|
|
Other
|
3.8%
|
4.3%
|
|
Developed markets
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Poland
|
6.4%
|
6.5%
|
|
Asia
|
4.5%
|
5.2%
|
|
Other
|
8.8%
|
9.1%
|
|
Higher Growth markets
|
6.0%
|
6.3%
|
|
Total
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
1. Where there is significant difference in projected real world and risk neutral profits and the value of the in force business plus required capital is negative or close to zero, the IDR is not well defined and consequently IDR is not meaningful.
Page 30
E14 - Summary of non-controlling interest in life and related businesses' MCEV results
|
30 June 2012
|
Ireland
£m
|
France
£m
|
Spain
£m
|
Italy
£m
|
Developed markets
£m
|
Higher
Growth markets
£m
|
Total
£m
|
Share-holders' interest
£m
|
Group
£m
|
|
Value of new business after tax
|
(1)
|
6
|
10
|
6
|
21
|
2
|
23
|
141
|
164
|
|
Life MCEV operating earnings after tax
|
(1)
|
7
|
34
|
88
|
128
|
9
|
137
|
744
|
881
|
|
Life MCEV earnings/(loss) after tax
|
1
|
18
|
(20)
|
405
|
404
|
10
|
414
|
1,227
|
1,641
|
|
Closing covered businesses' embedded value
|
256
|
209
|
346
|
165
|
976
|
176
|
1,152
|
12,902
|
14,054
|
|
Restated
30 June 2011
|
Ireland
£m
|
France
£m
|
Spain
£m
|
Italy
£m
|
Developed markets
£m
|
Higher Growth markets
£m
|
Delta
Lloyd
£m
|
Total
£m
|
Share-holders' interest
£m
|
Group
£m
|
|
Value of new business after tax
|
-
|
11
|
18
|
19
|
48
|
2
|
-
|
50
|
223
|
273
|
|
Life MCEV operating earnings after tax
|
(2)
|
15
|
40
|
47
|
100
|
9
|
94
|
203
|
990
|
1,193
|
|
Life MCEV (loss)/earnings after tax
|
(12)
|
11
|
55
|
(70)
|
(16)
|
11
|
(13)
|
(18)
|
1,040
|
1,022
|
|
Closing covered businesses' embedded value
|
266
|
260
|
541
|
608
|
1,675
|
175
|
-
|
1,850
|
15,300
|
17,150
|
|
Full year 2011
|
Ireland
£m
|
France
£m
|
Spain
£m
|
Italy
£m
|
Developed
markets
£m
|
Higher Growth markets
£m
|
Delta
Lloyd
£m
|
Total
£m
|
Share-holders' interest
£m
|
Group
£m
|
|
Value of new business after tax
|
(1)
|
15
|
32
|
27
|
73
|
5
|
-
|
78
|
432
|
510
|
|
Life MCEV operating (loss)/earnings after tax
|
(10)
|
25
|
49
|
28
|
92
|
40
|
94
|
226
|
2,193
|
2,419
|
|
Life MCEV (loss)/earnings after tax
|
(29)
|
(16)
|
(8)
|
(928)
|
(981)
|
44
|
(13)
|
(950)
|
(1,337)
|
(2,287)
|
|
Closing covered businesses' embedded value
|
266
|
214
|
405
|
(244)
|
641
|
179
|
-
|
820
|
12,274
|
13,094
|
There are no non-controlling interests in the United Kingdom or the United States.
E15 - Principal assumptions
(a) Economic assumptions - Deterministic calculations
Economic assumptions are derived actively, based on market yields on risk-free fixed interest assets at the end of each reporting period.
In setting the risk-free rate we have, wherever possible, used the mid-price swap yield curve for an AA-rated bank. The curve is extrapolated beyond the last available market data point to an ultimate forward rate using the Nelson-Siegel functional form if necessary. For markets in which there is no reliable swap yield curve, the relevant government bond yields are used. For certain business, swap rates are adjusted for a 'liquidity premium' in deriving the risk free rates, and these adjustments are shown below the reference rate table.
Required capital is shown as a multiple of the EU statutory minimum solvency margin or equivalent.
The principal economic assumptions used are as follows:
Reference rate (spot, swap rates) and expense inflation
|
|
United Kingdom
|
|
|
30 June 2012
%
|
30 June
2011
%
|
Full year
2011
%
|
Full year 2010
%
|
|
Reference rate
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 year
|
0.9%
|
1.1%
|
1.2%
|
1.0%
|
|
5 years
|
1.3%
|
2.5%
|
1.6%
|
2.7%
|
|
10 years
|
2.2%
|
3.6%
|
2.3%
|
3.7%
|
|
15 years
|
2.7%
|
4.1%
|
2.8%
|
4.1%
|
|
20 years
|
3.0%
|
4.3%
|
3.0%
|
4.2%
|
|
Expense inflation
|
2.6%
|
3.4%
|
2.8%
|
3.3%
|
Page 31
E15 - Principal assumptions continued
(a) Economic assumptions - Deterministic calculations continued
|
|
Eurozone
|
|
|
30 June
2012
%
|
30 June
2011
%
|
Full year
2011
%
|
Full year 2010
%
|
|
Reference rate
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 year
|
0.8%
|
2.0%
|
1.4%
|
1.3%
|
|
5 years
|
1.3%
|
2.9%
|
1.7%
|
2.5%
|
|
10 years
|
2.0%
|
3.5%
|
2.4%
|
3.4%
|
|
15 years
|
2.3%
|
3.9%
|
2.8%
|
3.8%
|
|
20 years
|
2.4%
|
4.0%
|
2.8%
|
3.8%
|
|
Expense inflation
|
1.9%
|
2.1%
|
1.9%
|
2.1%
|
|
|
Poland
|
|
|
30 June
2012
%
|
30 June
2011
%
|
Full year
2011
%
|
Full year 2010
%
|
|
Reference rate
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 year
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
4.9%
|
4.4%
|
|
5 years
|
4.6%
|
5.3%
|
4.8%
|
5.5%
|
|
10 years
|
4.7%
|
5.4%
|
5.0%
|
5.7%
|
|
15 years
|
4.4%
|
5.2%
|
4.7%
|
5.4%
|
|
20 years
|
4.1%
|
5.1%
|
4.3%
|
5.1%
|
|
Expense inflation
|
3.3%
|
3.1%
|
2.9%
|
3.0%
|
|
|
United States
|
|
|
30 June 2012
%
|
30 June
2011
%
|
Full year
2011
%
|
Full year 2010
%
|
|
Reference rate
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 year
|
0.5%
|
0.4%
|
0.7%
|
0.4%
|
|
5 years
|
1.0%
|
2.1%
|
1.2%
|
2.2%
|
|
10 years
|
1.8%
|
3.4%
|
2.1%
|
3.5%
|
|
15 years
|
2.3%
|
4.0%
|
2.5%
|
4.0%
|
|
20 years
|
2.5%
|
4.2%
|
2.6%
|
4.2%
|
|
Expense inflation
|
2.0%
|
3.0%
|
2.0%
|
3.0%
|
For service companies, expense inflation relates to the underlying expenses rather than the fees charged to the life company.
The following adjustments are made to the swap rate for immediate annuity type contracts and for all contracts for Aviva USA.
The risk-free rate is taken as the swap yield curve for the currency of the liability, adjusted by adding the following to each swap rate:
|
|
New business
|
|
Embedded value
|
|
|
1Q 2012
|
2Q 2012
|
1Q 2011
|
2Q2011
|
3Q 2011
|
4Q 2011
|
|
30 June
2012
|
30 June
2011
|
Full year 2011
|
|
UK Immediate annuities
|
1.34%
|
1.46%
|
1.14%
|
1.00%
|
1.20%
|
1.27%
|
|
1.43%
|
1.06%
|
1.30%
|
|
UK bulk purchase annuities
|
1.34%
|
1.46%
|
0.72%
|
0.65%
|
1.38%
|
1.36%
|
|
1.43%
|
1.06%
|
1.30%
|
|
France
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
0.87%
|
0.33%
|
1.18%
|
|
Spain
|
0.32%
|
0.69%
|
0.36%
|
0.31%
|
0.33%
|
0.96%
|
|
0.64%
|
0.33%
|
0.88%
|
|
US immediate annuities
|
1.26%
|
1.00%
|
0.66%
|
0.57%
|
0.59%
|
1.28%
|
|
1.17%
|
0.59%
|
1.33%
|
|
US deferred annuities and all other contracts
|
1.07%
|
0.84%
|
0.56%
|
0.49%
|
0.51%
|
1.09%
|
|
0.99%
|
0.51%
|
1.13%
|
The approach to estimating the market level of liquidity premium in corporate bond assets is consistent with the formula structure proposed by CFO/CRO Forum working party.
The formula is:
UK/Europe: 50% of (iBoxx Corporate bond spread - 40bp)
USA: 60% of (iBoxx Corporate bond spread - 40bp)
For assets valued on a marked to model basis (e.g., commercial mortgages), the liquidity premium is consistent with the underlying model valuation.
Adjustments are made where liabilities are not fully backed by assets earning a liquidity premium and for contracts that are exposed to some lapse risk. There has been no change to the types of contracts to which a liquidity premium is applied.
Page 32
E15 - Principal assumptions continued
(a) Economic assumptions - Deterministic calculations continued
Risk premium - used for operating profit, Implied Discount Rates (IDR), Internal Rates of Return (IRR) and payback period
For life and pensions operating earnings, Aviva uses normalised investment returns. The normalised investment returns are expressed as a swap rate based on the typical duration of the assets held plus an asset risk premium. More detail is given in note E1 - Basis of Preparation.
The use of asset risk premia only impacts operating earnings as expected returns reflect management's long-term expectations of asset returns in excess of the reference rate from investing in different asset classes. This assumption does not impact the embedded value or value of new business as asset risk premia are not recognised until earned. The asset risk premia set out in the table below are added to the ten year swap rate to calculate expected returns.
|
|
All territories
|
|
|
30 June
2012
|
30 June
2011
|
Full year
2011
|
Full year
2010
|
|
Equity risk premium
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
|
Property risk premium
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
Future returns on fixed interest investments are calculated from prospective yields less an adjustment for credit risk.
Required capital and tax
|
|
Tax rates5
|
|
Required capital
(% EU minimum or equivalent)
|
|
|
|
30 June
2012
|
30 June
2011
|
Full year
2011
|
Full year
2010
|
|
30 June
2012
|
30 June
2011
|
Full year
2011
|
|
United Kingdom1
|
23.0%
|
26.0%
|
25.0%
|
27.0%
|
|
100%/200%
|
100%/200%
|
100%/200%
|
|
Ireland2
|
12.5%
|
12.5%
|
12.5%
|
12.5%
|
|
174%/180%
|
174%/180%
|
174%/180%
|
|
France
|
34.4%
|
34.4%
|
34.4%
|
34.4%
|
|
107.5%
|
107.5%
|
107.5%
|
|
United States
|
35.0%
|
35.0%
|
35.0%
|
35.0%
|
|
325%
|
325%
|
325%
|
|
Spain3
|
30.0%
|
30.0%
|
30.0%
|
30.0%
|
|
122%-130%/156%
|
130%-134%/175%
|
122%-130%/156%
|
|
Italy4
|
34.3%
|
32.4%
|
34.3%
|
32.4%
|
|
305%
|
115%/165%
|
195%
|
|
Poland
|
19.0%
|
19.0%
|
19.0%
|
19.0%
|
|
125.5%
|
125.5%
|
125.5%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 The required capital in the United Kingdom under MCEV is 100% for unit-linked and other non-participating business and annuity business with 200% for BPA business. In addition, the reattribution of the inherited estate has led to additional capital being locked in to support the with-profit business, and this has been included within required capital.
2 Required capital in Ireland under MCEV is 174% for bancassurance and 180% for retail business.
3 Required capital in Spain is 156% of the EU minimum for Aviva Vida y Pensiones and 122% - 130% for bancassurance companies.
4 This is the aggregate required capital level for in force business in Italy and reflects the current economic environment. It has increased from 2011 due to a true up of prior estimates. New business metrics continue to use management target levels of required capital (115%-165% of EU minimum), which better reflects the capital requirements of the new business.
5 Current tax legislation and rates have been assumed to continue unaltered except in UK where changes in future tax rates have been considered on a best estimate basis as a known future change.
The UK Finance Act 2012 included a reduction in the UK corporation tax rate from 24% to 23% with effect from 1 April 2013. This is considered a known future change for MCEV purposes and has been reflected in the Group's MCEV net assets as at 30 June 2012.
As announced in the 2012 Budget, the rate is expected to reduce further to 22% from 1 April 2014. The benefit to the Group's MCEV net assets from the further 1% reduction in the rate from 23% to 22% is estimated at approximately £60 million and is not reflected in the Group's MCEV net assets as at 30 June 2012.
The UK Finance Act 2012 also included initial legislation introducing considerable changes to the regime for taxing UK life insurance companies applicable from 1 January 2013. These changes are considered to be a known future change for MCEV purposes and have resulted in a reduction in deferred tax liabilities, increasing the Group's MCEV net assets at 30 June 2012 by £15 million.
Other economic assumptions
Required capital relating to with-profit business is generally assumed to be covered by the surplus within the with-profit funds and
no effect has been attributed to shareholders. Where the fund is insufficient and additional shareholder support is required, this is included within required capital, including the RIEESA in the UK. Bonus rates on participating business have been set at levels consistent with the economic assumptions. The distribution of profit between policyholders and shareholders within the with-profit funds assumes that the shareholder interest in conventional with-profit business in the UK and Ireland continues at the current rate
of one-ninth of the cost of bonus.
(b) Economic Assumptions - Stochastic calculations
The calculation of time value of options and guarantees allows for expected management and policyholder actions in response to varying future investment conditions. The management actions modelled include changes to asset mix, bonus rates and rates of interest and other guarantees granted to policyholders. Modelled policyholder actions are described under 'Other assumptions'.
Page 33
E15 - Principal assumptions continued
Model - United States and United Kingdom
Swap rates are generated by a model, the LIBOR Market Model Plus (LMM+), which projects a full swap curve at monthly intervals.
At half year 2011, the LMM model was used in the UK to generate scenarios. Forward rates are assumed to have a distribution that lies between the log-normal and normal distributions. Although this no longer guarantees non-negative interest rates, it maintains interest rates within a more plausible range than the standard Libor Market Model, and gives a better fit to certain swaption volatility surfaces. The model is calibrated to volatilities for swaptions for ten year swaps for a range of option terms and strike rates. Swaption volatilities are taken from SuperDerivatives. Tests have been performed to ensure that sufficient scenarios have been used that the result converges to the stochastic value of the business being valued.
The total annual return on equities is calculated as the return on one-year swaps plus an excess return. For the US, this excess return is modelled using a log-normal model where volatility varies by time horizon. This allows the model to capture the term structure of implied volatilities. The model is calibrated to at-the-money options of a variety of terms. For the UK, a stochastic volatility jump defusion model is used, which allows for varying levels of volatility over time and across strike prices. Option volatilities are taken from Markit.
Assumptions for correlations between asset classes have been set based on historic data.
Model - Other Developed and Higher Growth markets
Swap rates are generated by a model, the LIBOR Market Model (LMM) that projects a full swap curve at monthly intervals. Forward rates are assumed to have a log-normal distribution which guarantees non-negative interest rates. The model is calibrated to at-the-money swaptions of a variety of terms and tenors. Swaption volatilities are taken from SuperDerivatives. Tests have been performed
to ensure that sufficient scenarios have been used that the result converges to the stochastic value of the business being valued.
The total annual return on equities is calculated as the return on one-year swaps plus an excess return. This excess return is generally modelled using a log-normal model where volatility varies by time horizon. This allows the model to capture the term structure of implied volatilities. The model is calibrated to at-the-money options of a variety of terms. Option volatilities are taken
from Markit.
The model also generates property total returns and real yield curves, although these are not significant asset classes for Aviva outside the UK. In the absence of liquid market data, the volatilities of these asset classes are based on historic data.
Assumptions for correlations between asset classes have been set based on historic data.
Asset classes
The significant asset classes for UK participating business are equities, property and long-term fixed rate bonds. The most significant assumptions are the distribution of future long-term interest rates (nominal and real) and swaption implied volatilities.
For many businesses, including US and France, the most important assets are fixed rate bonds of various durations.
Summary statistics
Swaption implied volatilities
The implied volatility is that determined by Black-Scholes' formula to reproduce the market price of the option. The following table
sets out the swaption implied volatilities.
|
|
30 June 2012
Swap length
|
|
30 June 2011
Swap length
|
|
Full year 2011
Swap length
|
|
Option length
|
10 years
|
15 years
|
20 years
|
25 years
|
|
10 years
|
15 years
|
20 years
|
25 years
|
|
10 years
|
15 years
|
20 years
|
25 years
|
|
UK sterling
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 years
|
17.7%
|
16.9%
|
16.2%
|
15.7%
|
|
13.3%
|
12.8%
|
12.5%
|
n/a
|
|
18.0%
|
16.8%
|
16.1%
|
15.6%
|
|
15 years
|
16.0%
|
15.4%
|
14.5%
|
14.0%
|
|
13.3%
|
12.7%
|
12.3%
|
n/a
|
|
16.2%
|
15.4%
|
14.8%
|
14.1%
|
|
20 years
|
15.5%
|
14.5%
|
13.6%
|
13.2%
|
|
13.0%
|
12.3%
|
11.8%
|
n/a
|
|
15.3%
|
14.5%
|
13.8%
|
13.1%
|
|
25 years
|
15.2%
|
14.3%
|
13.5%
|
13.1%
|
|
13.4%
|
12.5%
|
11.6%
|
n/a
|
|
15.4%
|
14.3%
|
13.5%
|
12.8%
|
|
Euro
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 years
|
29.7%
|
28.8%
|
28.4%
|
27.9%
|
|
16.9%
|
16.4%
|
15.9%
|
15.5%
|
|
27.3%
|
28.1%
|
28.7%
|
28.4%
|
|
15 years
|
32.7%
|
30.0%
|
28.0%
|
26.8%
|
|
15.6%
|
15.0%
|
14.5%
|
14.0%
|
|
31.6%
|
30.9%
|
29.3%
|
28.1%
|
|
20 years
|
31.7%
|
27.9%
|
25.4%
|
24.3%
|
|
14.7%
|
14.0%
|
13.4%
|
12.9%
|
|
38.2%
|
32.6%
|
29.2%
|
27.7%
|
|
25 years
|
29.2%
|
24.9%
|
22.9%
|
21.8%
|
|
13.6%
|
13.0%
|
12.4%
|
11.8%
|
|
35.0%
|
29.1%
|
26.3%
|
25.2%
|
|
US dollar
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 years
|
27.2%
|
25.9%
|
25.4%
|
25.6%
|
|
18.9%
|
19.0%
|
18.9%
|
18.6%
|
|
30.4%
|
29.3%
|
28.4%
|
28.3%
|
|
15 years
|
26.1%
|
24.4%
|
24.0%
|
24.3%
|
|
17.8%
|
17.6%
|
17.3%
|
16.8%
|
|
30.1%
|
28.1%
|
27.4%
|
27.7%
|
|
20 years
|
24.0%
|
22.5% |