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Deepest recession in history to get even worse, say experts | Trustnet Skip to the content

Deepest recession in history to get even worse, say experts

25 July 2012

The extreme drop in GDP surpassed even the most pessimistic forecasts, but economists say there will be more bad news to come unless the Government takes drastic action.

By Mark Smith

Senior Reporter, FE Trustnet

Today’s surprise 0.7 per cent fall in GDP marks the deepest recession in British history. While some commentators say that most businesses still have plenty of wind in their sails and remain on course for recovery, senior industry figures believe things will get worse before they get better. 


Lord Oakeshott, portfolio manager at OLIM and former Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman 

"Any business failing its key objective like this would change its strategy or its management or probably both." 

"George Osborne has got no business experience. He has never worked outside politics. He is doing surprisingly well for a chancellor on work experience." 

"But really in a torrid time like this I think we do need absolutely the best people available. Britain should do the same now with a bold plan A-plus. We need our A-team at the Treasury." 


Azad Zangana (pictured), European economist at Schroders 

ALT_TAG"The results for second-quarter GDP are poor to say the least. While the vast majority of economists had forecast another negative quarter, the final print was worse than even the most pessimistic forecast surveyed by Bloomberg." 

"Looking ahead, we expect the UK economy to return to growth in the third quarter as most of the special factors that dampened activity in the second quarter reverse, but also thanks to an additional boost from London hosting the Olympic Games." 

"Nevertheless, the data is clearly showing more underlying weakness than we expected, especially in the services sector of the economy."

"We predict a return to recession in 2013, partly caused by the eurozone debt crisis, but also partly caused by a lack of effective policy left available to the Bank of England." 

"We expect the Bank of England to continue its quantitative easing programme beyond November, but we do not expect it to have a meaningful impact."

"As a result of the latest GDP figures, we have therefore cut our annual 2012 GDP forecast from -0.1 per cent to a very weak -0.5 per cent."

"We have also cut our 2013 forecast from 0.7 to 0.5 per cent growth, which is significantly lower than the latest consensus of 1.6 per cent." 


Gervais Williams (pictured), manager of The Diverse Income Trust

ALT_TAG"Generally I’m not expecting much from the economy. My holdings have to be selected on that basis."

 "I don’t worry too much about the exact GDP number each time it comes out because it is often revised later. Bad as it is here, there are plenty of economies that are looking much worse." 

"In fact, some tiny stocks can sustain growth more easily than the larger companies. Smaller stocks can be more nimble and run around the feet of the majors and some are exposed to new markets and sectors that are still underdeveloped."

"Clearly not all companies can sustain growth so it is important to find the best." 


Richard Lloyd (pictured), executive director at Which? 

ALT_TAG"Today's shocking GDP figures are further evidence of what hard-pressed consumers know only too well, that we are in the midst of the biggest financial squeeze since the 1920s." 

"Our consumer report found Britons are among the most economically vulnerable in Europe, with people’s ability to save at rock-bottom and personal debt levels sky-high."

"Alarming numbers of people say they are forced to take on new forms of debt just to make ends meet and many more say they would not cope with unexpected shocks to their income or household bills."

"Three-quarters of the British public describe the UK economy as ‘poor’ and half of the population believe it will only get worse over the coming 12 months." 

"The chancellor needs to get money back in people’s pockets to help households who are struggling to cope with rising fuel, energy, mortgage and food costs."

"That’s what will really boost consumer confidence and spending power, which is essential for getting sustainable growth going in the economy." 


John Cridland, director-general of the Confederation of British Industry

"These are very disappointing figures. They show there has been a lack of growth in the first half of 2012." 

"When I talk to businesses on the ground, however, the overwhelming view is that right now the economy is flat rather than negative, and there is potential for Britain to get back into growth later in the year." 

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