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Gleeson: Why gold will never be part of my portfolio

FE's head of research explains why he has an aversion to the precious metal, which is becoming more and more popular with retail investors.

By Rob Gleeson, Head of Research, FE
Thursday August 23, 2012


The defining characteristic of all precious metals is their resistance to tarnishing. This was undoubtedly a much-desired trait once, but given that we live in a world that now contains Teflon and Scotchgard, it really doesn’t seem like gold deserves the adoration it gets.ALT_TAG

Everybody loves gold; be it in teeth or pension funds, but what investment purpose can be served by an asset that derives most of its value from being shiny?

Part of gold’s appeal is its safe-haven status; indeed it is probably the sole truly risk-free investment. If you own a bar of gold now, in the future you will still have a bar of gold.

Since there is no promise of a bar of gold, you aren’t relying on the word of a counter party, so there is no credit risk.

You don’t have to worry about looking for a buyer, or a seller, because quantities equivalent to the entire world's annual output change hands every day and so liquidity risk is non-existent.

The real value of gold tends to remain constant over the long term – the value of goods and services you can exchange for a bar of gold now will broadly remain the same over time, regardless of what happens to prices. 

No matter what goes on in the outside word, gold stays the same, but therein lies the problem. A bar of gold now will not be any more than a bar of gold in the future.

Its nominal value may change, but in the long-term its intrinsic value remains the same. It provides no income, is of limited practical use, despite there being trace amounts in my laptop and mobile phone.

It isn’t particularly scarce, being almost infinitely recyclable; the world stock is ever expanding. Along with having almost no risk, it also has almost no growth potential. 

What gold is good for, however, is as a store of value. It is no coincidence that in times of financial stress the price of gold rockets as demand spikes.

If the financial system collapses, the paper-based system of promissory notes becomes worthless and gold will be the only asset left.

Gold is the ultimate fear asset, its tremendous increases of the last few years have been driven by fear; this is the investment equivalent of stockpiling beans in a homemade bomb shelter. 

Performance of gold over 5-yrs

ALT_TAG 

Source: FE Analytics

The financial crisis will probably be resolved eventually; once greed returns people will dump gold for higher yielding and higher growth assets and its value will plummet.

If you are smart enough, or lucky enough, you can exploit these patterns to make short-term trading gains, but in that respect gold is no different to anything else traded on an exchange.

The most likely outcome is that you have no more or less than you started with – if you have held on to your gold for a long time. If you jumped in only recently, you will be looking at large losses. 

Gold has a place then; but it is only suitable for a narrow, tightly defined investment strategy. If you have no need of growth or income, but a strong desire to preserve the real value of your portfolio, look no further – for extra peace of mind, why not put it in a safe and bury it in the garden. The remaining 99.9 per cent of us however, should look elsewhere. 

Rob Gleeson is head of research at FE. The views expressed here are his own.



 
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Right Said Fed Aug 26th, 2012 at 09:52 PM

This is classic equity bug stuff. They are so steadfastly stuck in normality bias despite all of their marketing proclaiming the pas is no guide to future performance. "look at average returns of >6% pa since eighteen canteen" (Prof Siegel). Fabulous analysis. How many of us can benefit from 100+ years of average returns? (I'd be interested to know how much of that was achieved in the last 40 years since credit was allowed to grow unfettered. A lot I suspect). They make it sound like gold is an equity replacement when most rational gold "bugs" do not see it that way. They are fighting the wrong battle. Why? I wonder! They need to sell equity funds. Gold is a store of value undoubtedly. Just look at the bond market these days to see how important that is to people right now. The new mantra is return of capital not return in capital. Gold is a chaos hedge, the probability of which has grown considerably in recent years, so the chaos option value has risen thus taking with it the gold price. To glibly assert the crisis will resolve itself is further confirmation of the normality bias. Incredible blind faith when you think about how the world has been grappling with this for five years now and is no further forward. Debt continues to grow, the wests creditors are diversifying into hard assets through fear of default (which is what QE is effectively) which will force up bond yields and kill equities. It took something like 15 years for equities to return to previous highs after the 1930s depression (a similar credit fuelled bust). Good luck with that. Buffet is the prime example of the normality bias. I lost a lot of respect for him when he became a mouthpiece for the US govt.

Reply
Anthony Aug 24th, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Everyone here seems unconvinced by Rob Gleeson’s argument, but Warren Buffett has exactly the same view:

http://www.trustnet.com/News/Research.aspx?id=321939

Reply
Will Aug 24th, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Question...which would you rather have when the balloon goes up...a handful of share certificates or some gold / silver bullion?

Yes.I bought into gold in '06 when the SIPP rules changed....have made around 236% in 6 yrs..and I'm not selling an ounce...all the world's central banks magicking mountains of money out of thin air...not good!

Reply
pensioner Aug 23rd, 2012 at 07:52 PM

Of course the "fear and greed" people are constantly trading gold, driving the price up and down. But if you need cash when they have driven shares down, it is useful to have some gold which they have probably driven up.

Reply
farmideas Aug 23rd, 2012 at 05:53 PM

10 out of 10 Gold can only be a buy when it's cheap, such as the dip to $270 which Chancellor Brown thought was a 'sell' opportunity

Reply
Theo Aug 23rd, 2012 at 04:58 PM

I think everything Gleeson has said has some grain of truth, but he has exaggerated everything.

In particular, gold has not held a steady value throughout history at all. In 1970 it was about $30/oz, in 1980 it jumped to $500 which it held until 2005, by 2010 it had shot up to $1200 and $1650 in 2012. It is certain to go much higher if the Western economies collapse, but will surely collapse when our problems are overcome. Those who are good at timing the market, will do well.

As I have no illusions about my ability to time the market and as gold has no earning power of its own, it is a pure gamble and this is why I would not invest in it. Investing is about small steady progress and has nothing to do with gambling. Naive people should take note of the fact that the big gamblers, hedge fund managers, Soros etc., are careful enough to do it with other people's money. Only suicidal fools do it on their own.

Reply
John Clark Aug 23rd, 2012 at 04:42 PM

Gold is a good store of wealth over very long periods of time. Unfortunately it provides no growth nor income and in the words of J M Keynes "in the long run we're all dead".

Reply
Jason Aug 23rd, 2012 at 03:56 PM

Gold has traditionally been a safe have and has been a stellar investment over the last five years with a return of crica 213%. However, a word of caution, the emergence of ETFs and other securities enabling investors to more readily trade gold appears to have increased price volaility and gold is becoming more correlated with equities.

Reply
Kamal Aug 23rd, 2012 at 03:40 PM

I suspect that if everyone started pouring into solid Gold then there would be less demand for ceratin financial intermediaries fund/houses commentators, banks and so forth.

Solid Gold has and will most likely be the true measure of the stability of the financial systems and nations.

So is this article written with a hint of self preservation.

Reply
John Griffiths Aug 23rd, 2012 at 03:04 PM

Poppycock. The amount of gold bought by individuals is tiny. We are talking sovereign states buying gold to protect future wealth (Russia, India, China etc.) Look at the value of gold compared to the purchasing power of the $. Currencies will continue to devalue as more cash printed. Countries are already showing signs of wanting payment in gold not $ (Iran for oil etc.) Anyway you look at, gold and silver are the best ways to protect long term wealth

Reply
David Martin Livermore Aug 23rd, 2012 at 02:22 PM

If you'd sold everything 10 years ago & bought gold, you'd have done rather well, though you'd have hacked off a lot of financial intermediaries, deprived of initial and trail commission.

What is more, if your grandfather had taken everything out of the bank, as gold sovereigns, in 1914 and kept them in a sock they'd have kept their purchasing power---- a sov was £1 then, £250 nowadays.

Reply
Ladysmeader Aug 23rd, 2012 at 02:02 PM

"The financial crisis will probably be resolved eventually " says Mr Gleeson. Probably and eventually indicate uncertainty and whilst there is uncertainty, gold is a safe haven.

Reply
Disgusted Aug 23rd, 2012 at 01:52 PM

I also understood national governments to have stopped selling their gold reserves, and now buying it. This gold bull market began well before anyone had heard of the financial crisis, and with burgeoning middle classes in China and India, may well go on long after it is resolved.

Reply
Ram Aug 23rd, 2012 at 01:45 PM

One has to look at the history world had many crisis including wars but price of gold is always on the up there is no worry for gold going bust like companies and banks and now the governments.

So gold is good investment for the money you do not want for tleast 10 yrs.I have not invested but I am looking at it now

Reply
Peter Bridges Aug 23rd, 2012 at 01:26 PM

Mr Glezson has missed out on outstanding returns from the precious metal and comes across as a bit naive.

Reply
 

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