Five managers for a bearish outlook
Industry experts recommend the managers they think will do a good job of protecting investors’ capital if the surge in equity markets begins to falter.
The FTSE reacted well to yesterday’s announcement of a bond-buying programme by ECB head Mario Draghi, but most analysts expect the bounce to be short-lived.
Here are five FE Alpha Managers that industry experts believe will do a good job of protecting investors' capital if the surge runs out of steam.
Philip Gibbs
Darius McDermott, managing director of Chelsea Financial Services, recommends Philip Gibbs, who runs the
Jupiter Absolute Return fund.
"He had a spectacular 2008 when the index lost a huge amount," said McDermott. "It’s been an interesting couple of years for him recently, but there should be enough volatility for him to capture it."
Gibbs was managing
Jupiter Financial Opportunities in 2008 when the sector he was investing in was at the centre of the economic storm.
The fund made 7.3 per cent in 2008 while its MSCI AC World Financials benchmark lost 36.24 per cent.
Performance of fund and index in 2008
| Name |
2008 |
| Jupiter - Financial Opportunities |
7.3 |
| MSCI ACWI/Financials |
-36.24 |
Source: FE Analytics
Gibbs now runs Jupiter Absolute Return, which McDermott says is one of the few funds in the sector he rates.
Martin Gray
Both McDermott and Hargreaves Lansdown’s Rob Morgan recommend FE Alpha Manager Martin Gray, who heads up the
CF Miton Special Situations fund.
"When times are tough you want a proven asset allocator and he’s been able to take a defensive stance but become bullish when the better times are there," Morgan said.
"His aim is to not lose too much capital, so in the good times his fund is pretty dull, but what he does bring is a total return mentality."
Data from
FE Analytics shows that Martin Gray’s CF Miton Special Situations Portfolio has made money in every single calendar year since 2002, including 2008 when its IMA Flexible Investment sector lost 26.11 per cent.
Performance of manager vs peer group over 10-yrs
Source: FE Analytics
Sebastian Lyon
Morgan also recommends Sebastian Lyon. Although Lyon's
Trojan fund is officially soft-closed to new investors, it is available on a number of platforms such as Cofunds and Hargreaves Lansdown.
James Brown, analyst at Winterflood Securities, rates Lyon’s performance in the closed-ended space too, where he runs the Personal Assets Trust.
"He’s been very bearish for the past few years, very bearish on currencies and holds a lot of gold," he said.
Performance of fund vs trust and index over 3-yrs
Anthony Cross
Philippa Gee, managing director of Philippa Gee Wealth Management, recommends Anthony Cross of the
CF Liontrust Special Situations fund due to his ability to make money in falling markets.
"He is a very savvy manager who I would also expect will perform very well if we get a rising market," she added.
Data from
FE Analytics shows that Cross has outperformed his peer group composite in two out of three years that saw falling markets and seven out of 10 that saw rising ones.
Cross made 4.77 per cent last year while his peers lost 7.05 per cent.
Performance of manager vs peer group
| Name |
2012 returns (%) |
2011 returns (%) |
2010 returns (%) |
2009 returns (%) |
2008 returns (%) |
| Anthony Cross |
14.97 |
4.77 |
29.28 |
35.93 |
-26.6 |
| Anthony Cross peer group composite |
8.77 |
-7.05 |
20.01 |
36.22 |
-36.28 |
Source: FE Analytics
Neil Woodford
Woodford is well-known for his work on the giant Invesco Perpetual Income and High Income funds, but he also runs the Edinburgh Investment Trust in the closed-ended space.
Brown said: "He has been very bearish in the last few years, particularly about the problems in Europe, and has been in counter-cyclical stocks like tobacco and pharmas."
Data from
FE Analytics shows the trust has significantly outperformed its FTSE All Share benchmark since Woodford took control in September 2008, making 75.31 per cent while the index gained 29.49 per cent.
Performance of trust vs index over 3-yrs
Source: FE Analytics