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Five managers for a bearish outlook

Industry experts recommend the managers they think will do a good job of protecting investors’ capital if the surge in equity markets begins to falter.

By Thomas McMahon, Reporter, FE Trustnet Follow
Friday September 07, 2012


The FTSE reacted well to yesterday’s announcement of a bond-buying programme by ECB head Mario Draghi, but most analysts expect the bounce to be short-lived.

Here are five FE Alpha Managers that industry experts believe will do a good job of protecting investors' capital if the surge runs out of steam.


Philip Gibbs

Darius McDermott, managing director of Chelsea Financial Services, recommends Philip Gibbs, who runs the Jupiter Absolute Return fund. 

"He had a spectacular 2008 when the index lost a huge amount," said McDermott. "It’s been an interesting couple of years for him recently, but there should be enough volatility for him to capture it."

Gibbs was managing Jupiter Financial Opportunities in 2008 when the sector he was investing in was at the centre of the economic storm.

The fund made 7.3 per cent in 2008 while its MSCI AC World Financials benchmark lost 36.24 per cent. 

Performance of fund and index in 2008

Name  2008 
Jupiter - Financial Opportunities  7.3 
MSCI ACWI/Financials   -36.24 

Source: FE Analytics

Gibbs now runs Jupiter Absolute Return, which McDermott says is one of the few funds in the sector he rates.


Martin Gray

Both McDermott and Hargreaves Lansdown’s Rob Morgan recommend FE Alpha Manager Martin Gray, who heads up the CF Miton Special Situations fund.

"When times are tough you want a proven asset allocator and he’s been able to take a defensive stance but become bullish when the better times are there," Morgan said.

"His aim is to not lose too much capital, so in the good times his fund is pretty dull, but what he does bring is a total return mentality."

Data from FE Analytics shows that Martin Gray’s CF Miton Special Situations Portfolio has made money in every single calendar year since 2002, including 2008 when its IMA Flexible Investment sector lost 26.11 per cent.

Performance of manager vs peer group over 10-yrs

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics


Sebastian Lyon

Morgan also recommends Sebastian Lyon. Although Lyon's Trojan fund is officially soft-closed to new investors, it is available on a number of platforms such as Cofunds and Hargreaves Lansdown.

James Brown, analyst at Winterflood Securities, rates Lyon’s performance in the closed-ended space too, where he runs the Personal Assets Trust.

"He’s been very bearish for the past few years, very bearish on currencies and holds a lot of gold," he said.

Performance of fund vs trust and index over 3-yrs

ALT_TAG


Anthony Cross

Philippa Gee, managing director of Philippa Gee Wealth Management, recommends Anthony Cross of the CF Liontrust Special Situations fund due to his ability to make money in falling markets.

"He is a very savvy manager who I would also expect will perform very well if we get a rising market," she added.

Data from FE Analytics shows that Cross has outperformed his peer group composite in two out of three years that saw falling markets and seven out of 10 that saw rising ones. 

Cross made 4.77 per cent last year while his peers lost 7.05 per cent.

Performance of manager vs peer group

Name  2012 returns (%) 2011 returns (%)    2010 returns (%)   2009 returns (%)    2008 returns (%)   
Anthony Cross  14.97  4.77  29.28  35.93  -26.6 
Anthony Cross peer group composite  8.77  -7.05  20.01  36.22  -36.28 

Source: FE Analytics


Neil Woodford

Woodford is well-known for his work on the giant Invesco Perpetual Income and High Income funds, but he also runs the Edinburgh Investment Trust in the closed-ended space.

 Brown said: "He has been very bearish in the last few years, particularly about the problems in Europe, and has been in counter-cyclical stocks like tobacco and pharmas."

Data from FE Analytics shows the trust has significantly outperformed its FTSE All Share benchmark since Woodford took control in September 2008, making 75.31 per cent while the index gained 29.49 per cent.

Performance of trust vs index over 3-yrs

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics




 
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Geoff Downs Sep 07th, 2012 at 12:24 PM

David,

At present Governments and Bankers are printing money and this is keeping markets elevated. In these conditions two of my investments have done o.k. We will get QE3, so I'm fairly happy to stay invested. At the first sign the money printing stops I will take cover in cash or even Gilts.

Reply
Kevin Baillie Sep 07th, 2012 at 10:23 AM

So that's where I've been going wrong. I invest in Pharmas while Neil Woodford invests in farmers ...

Reply
The FE Trustnet team. Sep 07th, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Kevin,

Thanks very much for flagging up that very obvious error! That has now been amended.

Many thanks,

The FE Trustnet team.

Reply
Ark Welder Sep 07th, 2012 at 11:03 AM

It's the latest medication to wean smokers off their habit: a dried-up cow pat.

[As an aside, there is a cow pat hand cream available. Suitable for vegetarians, apparently...]

Reply
jai jinendra Sep 08th, 2012 at 11:01 PM

You don't have to be nasty to vegetarians

Reply
Geoff Downs Sep 07th, 2012 at 08:41 AM

I am invested with three of the managers listed. The article is a good one apart from one major issue. It is true to remind people of 2008 and how some managers performed then. My fear is that 2008, however serious, was just a warm up for what is to come. In that sense I feel no managers will perform and even the more defensive ones will get blown away.

Reply
dmb Sep 07th, 2012 at 09:56 AM

That being the case, why stay invested?

Reply
DavidStephen Sep 07th, 2012 at 10:18 AM

I completely agree with dmb.
If you think markets are going to fall either go into cash where 3% is still available or if you're more adventurous go short.
Either way there is no point in investing with a manager because you think he will do less badly than his counterparts.
We had the case yesterday of Premier who were predicting a fall to post Lehman levels but were still over 99% invested in equities.
It's time some of these doom and gloom managers put their money where their mouth is and went into cash or short positions.

Reply
 

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