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Skandia: Eurozone crisis is coming to an end

Rupert Watson, head of asset allocation at the group, says the first signs of economic recovery on the continent are beginning to show.

By Alexander Paget, Reporter, FE Trustnet
Thursday September 13, 2012


European markets are finally on the road to recovery, according to Skandia’s Rupert Watson (pictured), who believes Germany’s ratification of the ECB’s bond-buying scheme is a victory for equity investors.

ALT_TAGWhile economic data in the region remains frail, Watson, head of asset allocation at Skandia, believes that there are sure signs that the eurozone headwinds are beginning to ease and markets will recover strongly as a result. 

"The eurozone has been battered by bad news for a long time but at last we are seeing some good news that looks like the first green shoots of recovery," he said. 

"Though economic data remains very weak, this easing of tension within the eurozone could lead to a better economic performance next year, which would have positive implications for deficit-reduction plans and the global economy," Watson added. 

He also believes that this sense of positivity will lead to a period of bullish investment across all sectors. 

"Yesterday's news that Germany's constitutional court has rejected efforts to block a permanent euro-area rescue fund paves the way for the €500bn bailout fund championed by Angela Merkel."

"We continue to think that the ECB's bond-buying announcement last week will mark a significant turning point in the crisis. This is positive for the eurozone, the UK, the global economy and markets." 

Watson also drew attention to a number of other macro issues that will encourage European investors, including the spike in Greek equities and the troika’s confirmation that Portuguese deficit-reduction plans are progressing forward. 

AFI panellist Ben Willis, head of research at Whitechurch Securities, believes that although no one can accurately predict the future of the European economy, there is certainly more reason for optimism now than there was a few months ago.

"It is definitely a case of buy and hold at the moment, while no one can whole-heartedly say we are fully on the road to recovery and it is job done, but there is certainly cause for optimism in European markets," he said. 

"Investors must understand that there will be potholes over the coming months and there will be short-term volatility."

Willis has been bullish on European equities for some time and has already reaped rewards. 

"It has been a core area of exposure focus as we have used it for equity income and capital growth," he explained. 

"In our contrarian view, the corporate side of the European market is a very attractive proposition, despite the pressure placed upon it from macro issues." 

Willis thinks that investors can find opportunity if they are willing to look past global and political problems and concentrate on good stock picking.

"There are still very strong companies based in Europe, like BMW, that you can buy into at very cheap prices."

"I think if an investor was to buy BMW stocks now there is a significant chance they could be sitting on a massive profit in a few years’ time," he finished. 



 
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RonnieB Sep 16th, 2012 at 11:16 PM

I agree with Mr Watson, the German Constitutional Courts decision last Wedn.to conditionally ratify the ECB's Bond buying scheme, makes available enough new funds to bail out/ support the larger EU economies such as Spain & Italy, as well as the smaller Greece & Portugal. All EU countries borrowed too much, we need time to cut back on govn. spending & to start repaying capital debt. I think we are turning the corner.

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Andrew Alexander Sep 14th, 2012 at 02:36 PM

And as luck might have it, this just dropped into my inbox...

"Things in Spain, no matter what one is told, are getting progressively worse. The reason: on one hand the continuing surge in regions and total debt, both of which jumped in Q2, on the other hand Spanish bank borrowings from the ECB soared to €389 billion in August, a new record, and up from €376 billion, just as TARGET2 liabilities rose to a new record of €429 billion as well, explaining where that surge in German TARGET2 claims went, on the third hand housing prices collapsed by 14.4% in Q2, the most ever, and tying all the hands together was that the Spanish economy contracted.

But please ignore the details. Focus on the important things, such as the surge in the Ibex, the S&P, consumer confidence, gold, crude, etc, however long these continue."

Reply
Andrew Alexander Sep 14th, 2012 at 02:16 PM

I have no doubt that eurozone valuations are looking cheap, but surely that is for a reason? Spain needs a bailout, but accepting one with conditionality will open pandoras box. Greece apparently needs another third bailout; do you really think the German populace will be content handing over another 100billion? This saga is nowhere near ending, lets be realistic here.

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valiant Sep 14th, 2012 at 10:02 AM

This article is no more than advertising for European funds and Skandia. There are some very in depth items on various websites that look in detail at the European issues and the USA debt problems. The idea that money printing etc is solving the real economic problems is simply not true, although you can say at least that is driving equities into bubble territory.

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