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QE3 could push US economy to breaking point, says Chillingworth

Rathbones’ CIO claims the inflationary consequences of the stimulus measure will increase the pressure on consumers and may do more harm than good.

By Alexander Paget, Reporter, FE Trustnet
Friday September 14, 2012


The inflation that will result from the latest round of quantitative easing (QE) in the US could rise so high that it derails the very recovery the stimulus measure was brought in to support, according to Julian Chillingworth (pictured), chief investment officer at Rathbones.

ALT_TAGThe Federal Reserve last night announced the launch of “QE3” which will see it buy $40bn of mortgage-backed securities every month to reduce borrowing rates for homeowners in the hope of stimulating the housing market and creating jobs. 

While Chillingworth thinks Ben Bernanke has helped market sentiment in the short term, he believes the chairman of the Federal Reserve’s actions could increase pressures on the consumers.

He said: "The inflationary consequences of Bernanke’s move – higher commodity prices, most notably oil – could reach a break point, choking the consumer and tipping the economy. That’s the paradox." 

Despite his worries over inflation, Chillingworth believes that many positives will also result from this latest bout of quantitative easing. 

"The policy of sustaining low mortgage rates is providing a powerful stimulus that should work its way through to consumer sentiment and help elevate spending." 

In addition, Chillingworth believes the positive impact of QE on employment levels is debatable. 

“We have come across analysts who are highly sceptical of the benefits of QE on employment levels,” he said. “Some estimate that a further $500bn of QE will only reduce unemployment by a few tenths of a percentage.”

“Combined with the on-going debt problems, it is clear that the Fed alone cannot fix the economy, and government policy-makers must act as well.”

Even though the price of gold has dropped 0.18 per cent today at the time of writing, it has rallied over the last few days, due to the implications of the liquidity measures. 

Gold has traditionally been viewed as a currency in itself during periods of inflation. However, Chillingworth believes that investors should be wary of its recent relationship with equity markets. 

"Gold should provide a barometer (of inflation), but its recent correlation to risk assets needs to be watched closely by investors looking to leverage off QE3." 

Trevor Greetham, director of asset allocation at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, believes that QE3 has addressed some of the major issues faced by the US and will bring it much-needed respite.

"Once again the Fed has upstaged the ECB with a powerful and open-ended easing programme aimed right at the core of the problem – housing finance," he said. 

"We're hopeful this ease will help trigger a new economic upswing but these things don't happen overnight. Soft economic data could create some good buying opportunities in the next few months." 

Keith Wade, Schroders' chief economist, believes that the implications of a new bout of quantitative easing will reduce market headwinds for the bullish investor.

"Markets love it and risk assets have rallied on the news. The search for yield will become even more acute and investors will be driven into riskier assets in the search for income." 

However, Wade remains sceptical that QE alone will have a lasting impact on the economy and believes other stimulation measures are now required. 

"Stronger markets will boost wealth and confidence," he commented.

"However, there is growing disenchantment with QE as many question how simply printing money can affect decisions to invest in the real economy. Much of the QE so far has ended up trapped in the banking system rather than being lent."



 
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micky Sep 15th, 2012 at 01:33 PM

The rating agencies are / were certainly part of the problem.The banks aren't continually bolstering there balance sheets to pay off claims, the claims aren't that much.
And besides the the banks balance sheets are all faked anyway, that's why they were manipulating LIBOR so the they don't have to reveal the real asset values.

Reply
micky finigan Sep 15th, 2012 at 08:27 AM

"We blame the banks for what is probably the Rating Agencies fault"

Yeah right, because the rating agencies fixed the LIBOR rate.

Reply
Alan Sep 15th, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Read the New York court reports. When selling things it is normal to put a price on goods before sale, so with libor. Cut out the politics of US hitting out at UK banks which we have caught on to and the situation is clearer.Who sent us the securitised rust belt loans validated as investment quality? Banks are continually having to bolster balance sheet for claims and the rest of us will stay in recession..ad infinitum. I am not a banker.

Reply
Alan Sep 14th, 2012 at 06:05 PM

There are not many alternatives.. The value of money is not only the quantity of it but the speed at which it circulates. Inflation can be avoided if money supply is adjusted when the economy improves..
What a mess we get into with banks.. we want them to lend more but a whole industry has grown up taking money from banks by way of compensation.. rightly of wrongly. Do I really believe compensation for misselling isIjutified - probably not. It would have been better used by lending it to industry. We blame the banks for what is probably the Rating Agencies fault.. No wonder we are in a mess.

Reply
Theo Sep 14th, 2012 at 05:31 PM

Chillingworth is very wise. On one hand QE3 may do good and on the other hand it may not. Fancy that!

Reply
valiant Sep 14th, 2012 at 05:08 PM

My understanding of the present economic problems facing most countries hinges around the debt problem. The US is attempting through QE and stimulus to inflate the debt away. In reality they are creating more debt by following these policies. Mr Chillingworth may be right if he suggests markets will rise because unlike me they believe these policies will work. In the long run the debt problem because it is not being solved will implode, the question is when.

Reply
 

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