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Dampier: Threat of war a significant risk to investors

Hargreaves Lansdown’s head of research is concerned about growing tensions between Israel and Iran and the possible implications for equity markets.

By Thomas McMahon, Reporter, FE Trustnet Follow
Thursday September 20, 2012


Investors should be wary of the potential for war with Iran to scupper the rally currently pushing markets higher, according to Mark Dampier, head of research at Hargreaves Lansdown.

The FTSE 100 is up 4.12 per cent since 5 September on renewed optimism stemming from QE3 in the US and policy changes in Europe, and many professional and private investors have upped their risk exposure as a result

ALT_TAGA JP Morgan fund managers’ survey on Monday found that large numbers were even going overweight European equities.

However, with a fleet massing in Iran and the rhetoric growing fiercer, Dampier (pictured) suggests that investors may have forgotten about politics in their desperation to find good economic news. 

"The thing markets are not thinking about is the geopolitical risk. I wouldn’t be surprised if we woke up one morning to see Israeli bombers have bombed Iran. There are already gunboats gathering in the region on a 12-day exercise," he said. 

"What would it do to markets? I think oil has priced in the possibility but what about the stock market?" 

Data from FE Analytics shows that the markets fell in the months prior to the announcement of war with Iraq on 19 March 2003, before rebounding strongly. 

Performance of indices in 2003

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics

If war does occur in Iran, Dampier thinks markets would fall considerably before any rebound.

Although the situation in the Middle East has gained more attention, tensions are also high in the Far East, with nationalist demonstrations being held in China over Japan’s decision to reassert its sovereignty over disputed islands. 

Certain powerful Chinese operatives have even suggested the country use its economic power to push its claim by refusing to buy Japanese government bonds.

Ishaq Siddiqi, market strategist at ETX Capital, blamed the tension in part for a weak opening for European markets today. 

Dampier, however, thinks that in the medium-term the situation will be resolved. 

"I think they both need each other so they will find a solution among themselves somehow," he commented. 

He adds that investors need to be calm in their assessment of risk, highlighting that there is never a time they can be entirely confident of investing. 

"There’s always some crisis lurking," he said. "Probably the time when it seemed the most calm, when it seemed safest to get into the markets was 1987, and we all know what happened then [Black Monday, when stock markets all around the world crashed]." 

Performance of indices in 1987

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics

"There’s a lot of potential risk out there so I can understand why people want to diversify their portfolio and I think that’s sensible." 

Dampier previously told FE Trustnet he thinks investors should keep some of their money in cash in the current environment. 

"Crises do not last forever and holding cash does give you a great opportunity to cash in when things improve," he finished. 



 
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Ilmarinen Sep 23rd, 2012 at 09:25 PM

Yes and China and Japan.

Reply
Theo Sep 22nd, 2012 at 05:46 PM

First it will be Syria and then Iran, but it will be hardly a war.

Reply
lowey Sep 21st, 2012 at 03:32 PM

The American economy is a perpetual war economy built during WW2 and America is certain to engage in more wars in the future. They outlined a strategic map to take down Syria, Iran etc

Reply
Nicholas Sep 20th, 2012 at 10:11 PM

Best to regard this as an opportunity to buy good stocks at good prices, no?

Reply
Ark Welder Sep 20th, 2012 at 06:10 PM

"I wouldn’t be surprised if we woke up one morning to see Israeli bombers have bombed Iran. There are already gunboats gathering in the region on a 12-day exercise,"

Putting these two sentences does more for sensationalism than it does for either military or investment analysis.

No mention of the South China Sea either.


P.S. This cynic is a HL client. But not a client that relies on their advice - or analysis.

Reply
John Griffiths Sep 20th, 2012 at 05:04 PM

Good for gold & silver

Reply
Robert Sep 20th, 2012 at 04:57 PM

Well that would certainly be a "trigger" for the market correction.

Reply
John Clark Sep 20th, 2012 at 04:50 PM

It should also be noted that "cash" is not quite as bad as the industry claims.

Sources such as the Barclays Equity Gilt Study use UK Treasury bills as a proxy for cash, which roughly equates to bank base rate. But with minimal effort investors can achieve much higher interest rates on their savings, even after tax. There are also no trading costs or fund fees - and, of course, no risk to (nominal) capital.

No; despite what industry pundits usually proclaim, cash isn't so terrible - especially in such uncertain times.

Reply
Theo Sep 20th, 2012 at 04:25 PM

My esteem for Dampier is rising. Unlike some fund managers and other spokesmen from diverse fund houses, who are only out to sel, his articles are sensible and not just sales talks to gullible investors and IFAs.

War against Iran is certain, NATO and Israel have never been known to back down on anything, and the warships are not there for fun. But it is strange that in spite of our dire economic situation and the need for the utmost austerity, we are creating a war situation against Iran which raises oil prices and so transfers wealth from us to the oil producers.

Keep all the cash you can in reserve, invest only half of what you can save and wait for the crush.

Reply
Disgusted Sep 20th, 2012 at 02:11 PM

Have to agree with No 1 investor, a degree of scepticism is healthy, outright cynicism is not. It's a mistake to assume that cynicism equates to wisdom. It seems to me that HL have a vested interest in their clients being invested in the right funds, which grows their porfolios, which grows HL's trail commission. But then, I'm obviously niaive.

Reply
Isodet Sep 20th, 2012 at 01:41 PM

"Being advised to hold cash by a company (HL) that makes money from its customers being invested in funds (i.e. NOT holding cash) makes me feel that we're actually getting some genuine honest advice from Hargreaves Lansdown here."

Maybe, or a double bluff, as if it does come to pass, then HL will be shouting to all to fill the boots whilst a cheap buying opportunity, so they cream it off then.

More than one way to skin a cat that stick broken glass up its a**e...

Reply
No 1 investor Sep 20th, 2012 at 01:52 PM

So basically, whatever HL say you'll automatically assume they're trying to steal your money? Get real - it's amazing how jealous some people are of success.

Reply
Marco Fernandes Sep 20th, 2012 at 02:38 PM

Well said !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yes i also do find interesting always having a MR wise man always saying the same regarding trying to steal money ,commision bla bla bla
Mr Dampier actually tends to be very up front with his advices and if anything and considering that yes i am one of theyre HL clients i find quite nice of him in being like that and giving his face -his wisdom does not cost a penny,take it if you want it or just dont read about it but please stop coming always with the usual nonsense and scepticism regarding commisions etc ,he literally is a multi millionaire and has just been on the news regarding the massive divi payout ,wake up and smell the grass and have some respect sometimes..

Reply
dlp6666 Sep 20th, 2012 at 01:26 PM

Being advised to hold cash by a company (HL) that makes money from its customers being invested in funds (i.e. NOT holding cash) makes me feel that we're actually getting some genuine honest advice from Hargreaves Lansdown here.

Reply
 

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