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Barnett: At least four more years of crisis for the eurozone

The highly rated manager is unconvinced that either the ECB bond-buying programme or QE3 in the US will improve the macro environment.

By Alexander Paget, Reporter, FE Trustnet
Thursday September 27, 2012


The eurozone economy will struggle for four more years at the very least, according to FE Alpha Manager Mark Barnett (pictured).

ALT_TAGBarnett says people only need to look at what is happening in countries that are addressing their deficit to see that the major problems in the region are only just beginning. 

"The eurozone worries me immensely," he said. "The process of deleveraging we have seen in the US and UK markets over the last four years or so has only just started on the continent." 

"Europe is further away from crisis resolution than other markets in the world economy." 

The manager says that despite the recent optimism that followed the ECB’s bond-buying programme, the fundamental causes of the sovereign debt crisis have yet to be addressed.

"Nothing of what [Mario] Draghi has done will change the general economic landscape,"   Barnett explained. 

"What he has done is thrown the ball back in the politicians’ court, who will now determine if the policies are enacted. This is especially the case in countries like Spain and Italy where we still see significant levels of debt." 

The manager also remains sceptical about the impact of stimulus measures implemented by the Federal Reserve.

He commented: "In terms of QE3, whilst this unlimited market stimulus is trying to boost the labour market, there is not much evidence that there has been change to employment growth." 

"Ultimately, this QE3 has not changed the overall economy but it has been a good move for asset prices." 

"Whether or not this new bout of quantitative easing will help boost the markets [in the long-term], I suspect not. It has not affected underlying growth rates." 

In conditions such as this one, Barnett thinks an income strategy is the only way forward.

"For me, dividend yield is the strategic priority; growth in dividends is the end point of a successful business model," he said. 

"The companies that will remain strong in the current poor market backdrop are ones that have consistent growth in their dividend yields." 

However, he says investors should worry less about how much money a company is paying out and more about how sustainable this amount is. 

"At the end of the day, the main factor is the reliability of companies delivering the growth they say they can deliver,"  he commented.

"There is no point investing in companies that say they return 5 per cent and end up losing 5 per cent instead."

"In the end, you will find that companies that sit in the top quartile of their sector are the companies that can consistently grow their dividend."


Mark Barnett heads up both the Invesco Perpetual UK Strategic Income fund and the closed-ended Invesco Perpetual Select UK Equity investment trust. 

Performance of manager vs peer group composite over 10-yrs

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics

According to FE Analytics, over 10 years the manager has returned 226.35 per cent compared with 139.32 per cent from his peer group composite. He has also been less volatile.



 
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Geoff Downs Sep 27th, 2012 at 10:54 PM

QE has no effect on the jobs market which the Federal Reserve are well aware. QE is about switching debt from the State to the citizens. Citizens though are already in debt and are unlikely to take on anymore.
QE has helped equity prices for sure and that looks likely to continue for a while.
The debt problems though remain and in some cases are worse. If borrowing remains low then it is hard to see how either the economy can flourish or equities remain elevated,

Reply
Ark Welder Sep 27th, 2012 at 06:20 PM

Mark Barnett also manages the Perpetual Income and Growth, and the Keystone investment trusts.

Has there been any editing of what he said? Two consecutive sentences seem to contradict each other, at least over the short-term:

"Ultimately, this QE3 has not changed the overall economy but it has been a good move for asset prices."

"Whether or not this new bout of quantitative will help boost the markets, I suspect not"


QE3 has been running for only two weeks, so it may be a tad early to judge its impact on the jobs market. Perhaps this, plus the extension of QE2, is as much to do with anaesthetising the uncertainty of the forthcoming US elections. Look to November and January.

Reply
Ilmarinen Sep 27th, 2012 at 04:28 PM

Spot on. Jeremy Warner in the Telegraph was saying only today that the euro crisis is so intractable as its various constituent elements are unique so neither politicians nor economists know how to solve it.

Reply
valiant Sep 27th, 2012 at 04:27 PM

I agree with his Europe remarks, although maybe four years is optimistic. Yes also dividend stocks may be better than other investments. He makes no reference though of the risk to capital. Then he wouldn't would he?

Reply
 

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