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JP Morgan makes case for emerging markets income

09 November 2012

The trend among companies in developing nations to pay out dividends is growing.

By Thomas McMahon,

Reporter, FE Trustnet

The wide range of investable stocks open to the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust is a benefit rather than a curse, according to Emily Whiting, client portfolio manager on the team.

Many analysts say funds with a large geographical remit can suffer from having to research such a wide universe of potential stocks, and that gaining a full knowledge of all the available options is impossible.

However, Whiting says that this allows selective management to create a diverse portfolio of stocks with a low correlation, giving stability to investors. 

"Correlations have come closely together in the past couple of years but when you look at the breadth and depth of the emerging markets, the correlation when you drill down to stock level is lower," she commented. 

"The correlation between a beer company in South African and a toll-road company in Brazil is quite low." 

Whiting explains that there are 350 stocks globally yielding 4 per cent or more and 800 paying 2 per cent or more, giving the team, which is headed up by Richard Titherington, a large amount of choice in how they create the portfolio. 

The team targets a yield of 4 per cent, and Whiting says that this has been easily achievable, with the challenge coming in creating a portfolio capable of paying this in all market conditions.

"We delivered just over 5 per cent in both our first two years, but we are worried about making sure we can make 4 per cent when markets pick up. We want to be delivering as consistent a yield as possible." 

Investing in emerging markets for income is a relatively new story and investors have few options to turn to. This is one issue that may have helped keep the trust trading at a premium to NAV since launch. 

Price to NAV since July 2010

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Source: FE Analytics

The trust is currently trading at a premium of 1.5 per cent, according to data from the AIC, and has already issued a C-share class to meet demand. 

On the capital growth side it has made 17.68 per cent since launch, while the average trust in the IT Global Emerging Markets Equities sector has returned just 1.38 per cent. 

The trust has also outperformed the JP Morgan Emerging Markets IT, run by Austin Forey since 1997, which targets capital growth rather than income. 

Performance of trust vs sector and index since July 2010

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Source: FE Analytics

Its popularity has been such that JP Morgan opened a unit trust along the same theme in July of this year.

Whiting explains that the holdings in the open-ended fund are largely the same but the trust can more easily invest in smaller and mid cap companies. She adds that she expects the theme to grow in popularity. 

"The main reason is diversification. We saw the risk a few years ago when BP froze its dividend. It highlighted the concentration risk in the UK sector." 

"A lot of people still perceive the emerging markets as a growth asset class, but when you drill down and look at emerging markets you can find stable diversification with a low correlation."

Some analysts doubt whether the practice of paying dividends will last in geographical areas that do not have the tradition the UK has. 

Whiting says, however, that there is a widespread move in the management of emerging markets companies to prioritise investors.

"Our view is that what you have seen in emerging markets is that corporate discipline has changed and there’s a recognition of the impact of investors, and paying a sustainable dividend is the most important way of keeping many on board." 

"In the past month and a half we have entered into new positions in South Africa, where we feel valuations are attractive but we have seen management delivering on what they have said in terms of growth and capital allocation and these are the positions we want to hold long-term."

"South African companies are very dividend-friendly."

The trust has the ability to borrow up to £40m in gearing facilities, having taken out an original £20m at launch and then doubled that when it grew in size. 

Whiting says that the team has used the facility since launch as the interest it has to pay on the loans is less than that it receives on its investments. 

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