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A fund for a frontier markets boom

13 December 2012

Oriel Securities puts the BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust in the same bracket as Jupiter European Opportunities and Murray International.

By Thomas McMahon,

Reporter, FE Trustnet

Investors looking to beat inflation should consider the BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust, according to Oriel Securities’ Tom Tuite-Dalton, who says it is set to rebound from a difficult start.

The analyst adds that the current yield of 3 per cent is attractive, while the portfolio’s underlying companies are generating above-inflation earnings growth. 

Share price performance has been poor since launch in 2010, but Tuite-Dalton says that sentiment rather than fundamentals are to blame, and the portfolio’s access to commodities and cash-rich markets makes it a sound long-term play. 

"The frontier market asset class remains under-owned, under-researched, and broadly out of fashion," he said.

"The BlackRock emerging markets team appears well positioned to exploit what they view as an excellent long-term investment opportunity in this commodity and cash-rich sector."

Data from FE Analytics shows that the trust has lost 19.58 per cent since launch in January 2011, while the MSCI Frontier Emerging Markets index is down just 3.83 per cent.

Performance of trust vs index and sector since Jan 2011

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Source: FE Analytics

The share price hit a low point in October 2011 when it was down 33.14 per cent since its launch, just prior to the Arab Spring. 

However, Tuite-Dalton says that even then Oriel retained confidence in the trust, listing it with Alexander Darwall’s Jupiter European Opportunities and Bruce Stout’s Murray International Trust as one of the three portfolio best-placed to consistently increase earnings above inflation in the coming years. 

He said: "BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust's share price has subsequently recovered from its lows, but is still well below issue price."

"So far, it has generated an attractive income stream, with the portfolio generating decent earnings growth well above inflation." 

"Vecht is confident that the trust's earnings can continue to beat inflation. We share his optimism, given attractive valuations, strong balance sheets and asset-rich economies." 

The trust is trading on a discount to NAV of 4.6 per cent, according to figures from the AIC. Jupiter European Opportunities and Murray International Trust are both trading on premiums. 

Manager Sam Vecht has a long track record of investing in emerging economies.

He also runs the five crown-rated BlackRock Greater Europe IT, as well as the BlackRock European Trust and Blackrock Global Funds Emerging Europe

Data from FE Analytics shows that he has outperformed his peer group in five out of six rising markets over the past eight years of available information.

However, the overall figures show he has underperformed his peer group composite, returning 115.96 per cent since September 2004 while his peer group is up 131.25 per cent. 

Performance of manager vs peer group since Sep 2004

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Source: FE Analytics

The trust’s largest weighting is towards Nigeria, in which it has 15.9 per cent of its assets invested.

The Nigerian market rose 53 per cent in the year to 30 September, while Kenya – where the trust has 1.7 per cent – rose 77 per cent. The portfolio holds more than 10 per cent in each of Qatar and the UAE, and 9.4 per cent in Kazakhstan.

Local issues in these markets can have a strong effect on performance, Oriel warns, as a lack of institutional western investment means that "hot money" flows are weaker and problems tend to be more country-specific. 

Despite this volatility, frontier markets are better positioned than many developed markets thanks to lower levels of indebtedness and the massively higher potential for growth, according to the management team.

Tuite Dalton added: "We share their view that the sector represents an attractive opportunity for investors within the broader emerging markets universe."

"In our view, so-called risky frontier equity markets may well prove to be a more effective store of long-term value than government bonds or cash." 

The trust has an ongoing charges of figure of 1.25 per cent.  

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.