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Japan at its worst point in 20 years, says Anderson

16 January 2013

The south-east Asian country has been heavily tipped recently, but the manager of the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust warns investors to steer clear.

By Jenna Voigt,

Features Editor, FE Trustnet

Investors should remain wary of the Japanese economy despite the positive market noise currently surrounding the region, according to star investment trust manager James Anderson.

ALT_TAG Anderson, who runs the Scottish Mortgage IT at Baillie Gifford, says he is inundated with analysis from stockbrokers every November saying Japan is about to take off, but has no interest in raising his exposure.

"There is less chance than at any point in the last 20 years that Japan is going in the right direction," said Anderson.

Financial professionals have argued that Japan’s recently elected prime minister has shown a strong commitment to pulling the country out of its long deflationary mire, but Anderson says this is unlikely to be the case.

He adds that he is finding it difficult at a stock-specific level to find any opportunities in the Japanese market.

"We only hold one [company in Japan] and I’m not sure it’s even doing very well."

He says a global focus is key to the trust’s success and that most of his interesting growth ideas come from outside London and New York. The trust has 17.7 per cent in emerging Asia and 8.5 per cent in other emerging market regions. Japan has just a 0.4 per cent weighting.

Anderson is particularly bullish about internet-based companies, which he says are both global in nature and require very little capital to grow.

"They are incredibly impressive companies," he continued. "They are transformational in growth, but also deeply destructive [of existing businesses]."

Among his largest holdings are Google, internet-based retail giant Amazon and Chinese web services company Baidu.

Scottish Mortgage IT, which is more than 100 years old, has three FE Crowns to its name and is trading on a 6.3 per cent discount. It is 16 per cent geared, which is much higher than the IT Global Growth sector average of 5 per cent.

The trust has outperformed both the IT Global Growth sector and FTSE All World index over one, three, five and 10 years.

Over the last decade, the trust is up 285.06 per cent, compared with 174.88 per cent from the sector and 132.26 per cent from the index.

Performance of trust vs sector and index over 10-yrs

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics

Although Scottish Mortgage is the third-best performing trust over 10 years, it is the most volatile in the sector, with an annualised score of 26.23 per cent.

The average fund scores just 13.59 per cent, according to FE Analytics.

Anderson takes a minimum five-year view when buying a stock and has said in the past: "Don’t own Scottish Mortgage if you cannot afford a five-year time horizon."

He thinks volatility is part and parcel of being a long-term investor and points out he has a very low turnover.

"I refuse to retire until Scottish Mortgage is no longer traded on a discount," he said.

One of Anderson’s highest-conviction prospects is Spanish-listed fashion group Inditex, a recent entrant into the trust’s top-10.

He says the stock is a striking example of globalisation in action and points out that high street brand Zara – which it owns – has expanded into 86 countries.

In the last year alone, Inditex has returned an impressive 63.96 per cent, according to Bloomberg, continuing a steady five-year upswing since 2008. However, Anderson believes there is still room for growth.

Tom Slater, co-manager on the trust, says he and Anderson are optimistic about technology companies, particularly in the US, and tips internet-based stocks such as Airbnb, which pairs travellers with lodging and is accessible via an app; private-hire car company Uber; and PayPal.

Slater says internet payment service PayPal already has 120 million users in 190 countries and expects it to benefit from the movement of money around the globe.

The Scottish Mortgage IT has an ongoing charges figure of 0.51 per cent, making it one of the cheapest portfolios in the IT Global Growth sector.

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.