Podger, manager of the £1.3bn Fidelity Global Special Situations fund, says he is not buying into the market hype because he has not seen enough positive underlying economic data to support the current equity rally.
The manager says the "January effect" should not be misinterpreted as an inflection point for markets, and believes the re-emergence of problems in the US is a particular threat.
"For sure, I think we will definitely see a correction in the markets," he said.
"We have been in a cycle of fear over the eurozone crisis, the Chinese slowdown and the US fiscal cliff for quite some time. There has been some more optimism recently as the US policy makers have made a temporary budget deal – but the next hurdle is the debt cap."
"That could quite easily go wrong but we have to see how US politics plays out in the next couple of weeks. We have seen poor trade data coming out of China so I can’t see how it will be plain sailing from here."
"In terms of Japan, the new stimulus measures are encouraging. However, the only thing I can see from 'Abenomics' is getting the currency down. In order to get the desired inflation it would need concerted intervention and support from foreign money."
"All in all, I think the rally we have seen is a seasonal thing. Everyone always starts the year in a more positive frame of mind and I think something is bound to go wrong," Podger added.
Podger has a good track record in the short- medium- and long-term, beating his peer group composite over the last one, three, five and 10 years.
However, the same cannot be said of his Fidelity Global Special Situations fund, which Podger took charge of in March last year. It has underperformed both its benchmark and sector over three and five years.
However, it has made a decent start under Podger, beating its sector and the index, albeit with more volatility.
Performance of fund vs sector and index since March 2012
Source: FE Analytics
The manager thinks central banking measures made in the second half of last year have resulted in the recent over-buying of global equities.
"In late 2012, there was a contraction of spreads in the bond market and tailwinds in the eurozone were reduced as the ECB said it would stand up and defend the periphery at any cost," he said.
"Corporate earnings have been savagely re-rated, however I think we can afford to be a little sceptical about their earnings forecasts for the upcoming year."
"The global economy isn’t terribly strong and I think those estimates may be a little high – this could mean that there is every chance of a correction."
"What is encouraging is that equity markets have stayed relatively cheap and corporates are not taking part in much capital expenditure. Investors may start to wake up to this and turn their attention to equities as spreads continue to compress in the bond market."
"This would be very interesting but I am still concerned."
"I – like the majority of active managers – hate paying up for stocks and I want to get them as cheap as possible. If that trend continues then I would be tempted, like many others, to sell," he added.
Fidelity Global Special Situations’ largest regional weighting is in North America, with 51.6 per cent of the portfolio held there. It counts large US multi-national corporates such as Google and Microsoft in its top-10 holdings.
The fund requires a minimum investment of £1,000 and has a total expense ratio (TER) of 1.71 per cent.
Robert Talbut, chief investment officer at Royal London Asset Management, agrees with Podger's outlook.
"While my strategic view of being more constructive on the outlook for equities relative to bonds remains, I believe that the former have run too far, too fast in the shorter term," he said.
"Indeed there are developments which add weight to my longer-term view that we are in danger of ignoring some of the strategic issues which have conveniently been overlooked by the über-bulls, which still have the ability to create significant air pockets for riskier assets."
Talbut says that a continued lack of global growth and bank-lending are two areas of particular concern.