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Titherington: 2013 will be the year of emerging markets | Trustnet Skip to the content

Titherington: 2013 will be the year of emerging markets

05 March 2013

The JP Morgan manager says valuations in the sector are at historically low levels but that the decline of two major headwinds mean they will not stay this way for long.

By Thomas McMahon

Reporter, FE Trustnet

Emerging markets are set for a rebound, according to Richard Titherington, manager of the JPM Emerging Markets Income fund, who says their underperformance in recent years cannot continue.

ALT_TAG He adds that valuations are at historically low levels, providing an attractive entry point for investors.

The MSCI Emerging Markets index has underperformed the FTSE All Share over the past three and five years, but Titherington believes this is due to cyclical factors that will start to shift this year.

"Valuations on emerging market equities are at the low end of their historic range, not far off crisis valuations," the manager said.

"However, profitability in the emerging markets is right up there at US levels. Our expectations are that in 2013 and 2014, profitability will improve across emerging markets and remain structurally higher."

"The two headwinds have been: one, inflation, which was a big issue in 2011 and 2012 but we think that has turned over now."

"Two, earnings historically are more volatile. Growth has never been the problem; it’s more about converting revenue growth into bottom-line growth."

"Emerging markets are more cyclical due to greater commodities exposure. They are also more sensitive to the business cycle."

"As the global economy has slowed down, corporates in the developed world are better at holding up."

"In 2013, we will see that coming back to favour emerging markets. Investors have been paying a premium for defensives, so the Philippines, Mexico and Chile have all re-rated and cyclicality has been valued lower, which is potentially interesting for investors."

JPM Emerging Markets Income was launched in July of last year off the back of the success of the closed-ended JPM Global Emerging Markets Income Trust.

The investment trust has proved so popular that it has been trading at a constant premium to net asset value, currently 0.8 per cent, according to the AIC.

Since last July the open-ended portfolio has performed more or less in line with the IMA Global Emerging markets sector, returning 18.3 per cent. It is currently yielding 4.7 per cent, according to the manager.

Performance of fund vs sector since launch

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics


Titherington explains that the strategy on the fund leads it to have a bias towards mid caps, which means it is more diversified than a typical emerging markets fund.

"Many companies are not a significant part of the broader emerging market index," he said.

A large team of analysts helps Titherington to gather ideas, with regional portfolio managers and sector specialists contributing. JP Morgan plans to add to this research team on the fund.

Titherington aims to hold 20 per cent in stocks with a yield of over 6 per cent, 20 per cent with a yield under 3 per cent and 60 per cent in between. Currently it holds 25 per cent in high-yielding stocks, which the manager sees as reflective of the low valuations in the market.

"When you think about valuations, high dividend yields are indicators of low valuations," he said.

The broad areas of expertise among the team allow it to utilise the whole range of emerging market countries, he adds.

"A lot of people seem to focus just on Asia when they think about emerging markets and income, but if anything, the income opportunities are greater in Latin America than in Asia."

The fund holds 15.2 per cent in Latin America and a further 36.9 per cent in EMEA.

"We are underweight cyclicality, so commodities companies, IT and exporting companies, as well as financials," he said.

"Although that’s mainly because banks in emerging market countries are growing their loan books rather than paying out more to shareholders."

"From a country perspective, the emphasis is towards valuations, so we own cheaper markets like South Africa."

South Africa and Brazil are two markets that have been paying out a high proportion of earnings to shareholders, and Titherington says he expects this to continue in years to come.

The manager adds that there are three main differences between the open-ended fund and the closed-ended trust.

"One, the investment trust can maintain an income reserve, so the payout on the trust should be more stable," he said.

"Two, the IT can use gearing, although if you look at the portfolio characteristics, the Beta of the OEIC is similar, so we offset the lack of gearing by having a slightly more aggressive stock-selection policy."

"Three, there is less cash-flow in the investment trust, so it has a smaller cap exposure of about 10 per cent of the portfolio."

Performance of trust vs benchmark since launch

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics


Data from FE Analytics shows that the trust has returned 37.77 per cent since launch in August 2010, more than double the 15.22 per cent made by MSCI Emerging Markets index.

It is 9 per cent geared, which has helped it produce that outperformance.

Titherington says that even though there are other areas of the market which are cheap, emerging markets make much more sense in the long-run.

"If anything, European equities are more volatile than emerging market equities right now," he said.

"We are going through a multi-decade rebalancing of the world. It is hard to imagine over the next five to 10 years that the developed world will have a growth rate which will match the rest of the world."

"So as long as you do not overpay for emerging market equities, the long-term fundamentals favour the asset class."

The JPM Global Emerging Markets Income fund requires a minimum investment of £1,000 and has a total expense ratio (TER) of 1.68 per cent.

The trust has an ongoing charges figure of 1.21 per cent, but has a performance fee as well.

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.