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Equities are a win-win for investors, says David Jane

02 April 2013

The manager claims quantitative easing will be positive for the asset class whether it gives western economies the hoped-for kick-start or simply increases inflation.

By Alex Paget,

Reporter, FE Trustnet

Equities represent an each-way bet in the current world of large-scale central bank stimulus, according to multi-asset manager David Jane, who believes real assets are the best way to protect against inflation.

The as-yet unlimited nature of quantitative easing (QE) is seen by many as the principal driver of the recent rally in equities, resulting in some experts calling the start of a bull run.

However Jane, who runs the TM Darwin Multi Asset fund, says equities are the best option for investors even if these predictions prove overly optimistic, and the negative effects of QE become more significant.

"The key to sustainability, which is absolutely critical, is that confidence picks up," he said.

"If confidence starts to improve then there will be added stability, so investors will be better off looking at real assets such as equities and property."

"But real assets are an each-way bet, really. If QE fails and they keep printing money, bringing inflation, then equities will prove to be the safer assets anyway."

"However, if QE works and the economy strengthens, then equities are obviously going to be beneficiaries of that. The purpose of this global stimulus is to force money into real assets so that the economy can grow."

Many market commentators say that the monetary easing has pushed investors into higher risk assets, but Jane is not convinced.

"I wouldn’t say equities are necessarily a riskier asset," he said.

"It is a bit of a moot point, as in term of absolute loss, at the end of the day, investors can lose just as much money in the likes of government bonds as they can in equities."

"Yes, equities are riskier in the short-term and are more volatile, but long-term losses can be just the same in fixed income."

Although there are concerns that too much money is piling into certain areas of the equity market, the manager say investors should not fear a short-term sell-off.

"Markets will not go up in a straight line. We have seen traditional defensive assets have underperformed in the last few months, but they will always do so in a rising market," he said.

"Markets will rotate and certain areas of the market will get overbought. However, the US is leading the way – and for good reason – due to the strength of its recovery and its current political stability."

"There are concerns that Japan has been overbought, but that is because of the renewed political certainty there."

"I hear market commentators say: 'Oh, I expect a correction by 5 to 10 per cent.' That will probably happen, but after they do sell off I think they will carry on regardless after that."

"I think you need to be in real assets to make sure you keep up with the game," he added.

Jane is the former head of equities at M&G. He began running the £28m TM Darwin Multi asset fund in June 2011.

According to FE Analytics, over that time the fund is a top-quartile performer in its IMA Mixed Investment 20%-60% Shares sector, with returns of 14.74 per cent.

Performance of fund vs sector since June 2011

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Source: FE Analytics

Our data shows that the fund has participated fully in the recent rally. It is up 14.07 per cent year-to-date, making it the best performer in its sector.

Although it can only hold 60 per cent in equities, it has still managed to beat the FTSE All Share over the period.

Jane currently holds half the portfolio in a globally diverse spread of equities. He says he is having to look further afield for his fixed income exposure, because there is so little value available in the most popular areas of the market.

He commented: "We have around 24 per cent in fixed income at the moment. Half of this is in overseas government bonds and especially eurozone government bonds, but we hedge them back into sterling, which has turned out to be quite a prudent move."

"The other half is in sterling index-linked; we don’t have any corporate bond or high yield nonsense. I think they just act like extra equity exposure and I feel corporate bonds have been overbought recently anyway."

"We keep index linkers as they are another hedge against inflation. If it does all go horribly wrong and the central banks forget to take the foot off the accelerator, then index-linked bonds are clearly going to benefit."

"However, it is difficult to make a valuation argument there as you are getting no yield whatsoever," he finished.

TM Darwin Multi Asset has an ongoing charges fee (OCF) 1.92 per cent and requires a minimum investment of £1,000.

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.