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Private equity trusts set for re-rating boost “in coming weeks”

08 August 2013

Oriel’s Iain Scouller expects NAV rises of 3 to 10 per cent across the board as reporting season gets underway.

By Thomas McMahon,

Senior Reporter, FE Trustnet

Private equity investment trusts could be set for price rises in the next few weeks as the reporting season gets underway on Monday, according to Iain Scouller, analyst at Oriel Securities.

SVG Capital will be the first to report on Monday, with the majority of other trusts expected to follow suit in the next three weeks.

Scouller says he expects NAV rises of 3 to 10 per cent across the board and that this could lead to share prices rising and discounts narrowing across the sector.

"Prices jumped up in January and February after strong results and revaluations in December, so if we get a reasonable reporting season in the next couple of weeks, we might get another move up in the share prices," he said.

"A lot have gone sideways in the last few weeks and maybe people need the news-flow to get investing again."

"Quoted markets have been strong and that has flowed through to valuations on private equity," he added.

"Earnings on private equity companies have been doing pretty well over the last two or three years as well, and earnings growth is coming through."

"Over the last six months, exit activity has picked up as well, with 3i and Electra both having achieved big exits."

Electra Private Equity sold Allflex Holdings for $1.35bn in July, representing a gross return of 15 times its original investment.

The private equity company also made big profits on the flotation of esure earlier this year, gaining a return worth three times its original investment.

3i has been looking to offload non-core businesses and has recently made gains on two Asian investments, and calibration services company Trescal.

However, neither are the preferred recommendations of Scouller. He has a sell rating on 3i Group on valuation grounds and a hold rating on the £1.2bn Electra Private Equity trust.

Performance of trusts vs index over 1yr

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Source: FE Analytics

Data from FE Analytics shows that the former has made 79.43 per cent in share price returns over the last year while the FTSE All Share is up just 14.35 per cent. Electra has risen by 33.2 per cent.

The NAV of private equity trusts is calculated by the companies and reported in semi-annual and annual reports.

There is therefore the potential for sudden moves in the discount and in the share price if the market reacts well to what it hears.


SVG Capital, trading on a 16.5 per cent discount, is a major "buy" recommendation; Scouller says it is likely to report an NAV rise of 20 per cent, boosted by its quoted investments.

The £1.47bn fund invests largely in funds run by Permira, but is branching out over the medium-term.

Data from FE Analytics shows it has made 48.75 per cent over the past year and the discount has also narrowed considerably.

Price and NAV of trust over 1yr

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Source: FE Analytics

Scouller says that he also thinks this is one that will benefit from realisations – or exits – in the second half of the year.

"We currently expect further progress in NAVs over the second half of the year," he said. "There is scope for continued realisations to provide uplift given the increasingly mature vintages of the portfolios, especially for funds such as Pantheon, SVG Capital and Candover."

"Funds with high US exposure such as NB Private Equity and HarbourVest should also be beneficiaries of continuing strong activity in US capital markets. Earnings growth should also be helpful."

The £893m Pantheon International Participations trust invests in a pool of underlying private equity funds, drawing on the expertise of the firm as a primary funding source. FE Trustnet looked at it in some detail earlier this year.

Data from FE Analytics shows that shares have risen 41.5 per cent in price over the past year, while the FTSE All Share has made 14.35 per cent. The trust is on a discount of 22.2 per cent.


Candover is a £133m portfolio of 11 unquoted companies that has had a more difficult year. It has made just 0.65 per cent in share price terms and sits on a much wider discount of 39.3 per cent.

Performance of trusts vs index over 1yr

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Source: FE Analytics

Oriel also has "buy" ratings on the £355m Graphite Enterprise trust and the $452m NB Private Equity trust.

Graphite is a £460m trust of funds with 43 per cent in the US and 34 per cent in developed Europe. Shares have risen 28.36 per cent over the past year and the trust sits on a 23.1 per cent discount.

NB Private Equity is a $823m Guernsey-domiciled trust of funds which is far more focused on the US, with 79 per cent in that country.

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.