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Why Scottish Mortgage is betting heavily on tech

04 April 2014

Investors have to back their sector and stock positions and risk being wrong to succeed, says Baillie Gifford's Tom Slater.

By Jenna Voigt,

Features Editor, FE Trustnet

Investors have underestimated the power of the technological change that is going on in the world according to Tom Slater, deputy manager on the Scottish Mortgage Trust.

There are pitfalls in the sector, with the tech bubble of the early 2000s a particularly worrying memory for many investors.

Slater, who ran the fund while lead manager James Anderson took a sabbatical in recent months, admits a number of stocks over the years have been mistakes, including gaming company Nintendo, but he says without the gumption to make those calls, he would have missed out on strong gains from the portfolio's winners.

"Nintendo was a stupid thing to do, but it allows you to get things like Amazon and run them to a big enough size to offset the losses," he said. "It is down to a small number of stocks that generate the returns."

Among the tech companies Slater holds in the trust are Amazon, Google, LinkedIn, Dropbox and Twitter.

However, one of his favourite stocks is Chinese ecommerce company Alibaba, which is to list on the New York stock exchange later this year.

"It will be the big IPO of the year most likely," he said.

He likes the firm because, like Amazon, it has a strong competitive position and is changing the way a type of market functions. He adds that China is a huge untapped market for ecommerce, as even online giant Amazon has not built up a position in the country.

The trust has participated in a number of IPOs recently, including previously mentioned Twitter and Facebook, as well as HR software vendor Workday and American flash sales website for children's clothes and accessories Zulilly.

Slater is also much less negative on China than the consensus, saying that the long-term story in China is a good one.

"Over the last year we've been pretty out of sync with the market [on China]. We are upbeat about the long term prospects for China," he said.

The Scottish Mortgage IT has a long history of outperformance, beating both its benchmark - the FTSE All World index - and the IT Global sector over the last one, three, five and 10 years.

Over the last decade, the trust made 314.41 per cent, more than doubling the returns of the sector and index, which made 150.51 per cent and 132.45 per cent, respectively.

Performance of trust vs sector and index over 10yrs


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Source: FE Analytics

According to recent FE Trustnet research, the trust has performed exception well since the crisis year of 2008, picking up more than 300 per cent since March 2009.

The trust tends to perform better in rising markets; however, so investors might want to think twice if they think the recent equity rally - particularly in developed markets - is nearing an end. While the trust outperformed in 2009, 2010 and in the surge of 2012 and 2013, it fell much further than the market and its peers in the crisis year of 2008 and in the down markets of 2011.

In 2011, Scottish Mortgage lost 15.15 more cent, more than twice the losses sustained by the FTSE All World index and the IT Global sector.

Slater and Anderson are backing the US as the biggest sector weighting in the trust. Among the top-10 holdings are US internet and tech giants Amazon, Facebook and Google, as well as Chinese web services company Baidu.

Europe is the next largest region, with the bulk of that weighting invested in the single currency area (16.2 per cent). The managers are also invested in UK stocks, with 11.3 per cent staying close to home.

Slater says backing your convictions and rising being wrong is the key to delivering successful long-term market beating returns.

"We come from a standpoint of expecting to get a couple of stocks wrong," he said. "You have to be able to take enough risk [to offset any losses]."

Investors wishing to buy into the trust would be able to do so at slightly less than the value of its underlying assets - the trust is trading on a discount of 0.95 per cent.

This discount is much narrower than its one or three year averages, although the trust was trading on a premium of more than 4 per cent earlier this year, so investors may not be so averse to picking it up on this narrow discount.

The trust is extremely cheap relative to open-ended funds and other investment trusts, with ongoing charges of just 0.51 per cent. Slater added that they are planning to reduce charges to below 0.5 per cent in the near future.

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.