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Tigue warns of emerging markets 'blow up'

Jonathan Boyd
Jeremy Tigue, manager of the Foreign & Colonial Investment Trust, warns 2010 could be a challenging year for emerging markets investors.

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Tigue says issues such as the currency spat between China and the US could be a major factor.

"China is obviously the most important developing nation but concerns linger over their exchange rate. Do they let this go up against the dollar, impacting their domestic economy, or carry on with their current policy of keeping the exchange rate low, thus exporting deflation to the rest of the world and contributing to global economic problems?" he asks.

China's links to the US economy are not just based on trade in goods: the country is a significant holder of US Treasuries. "A decision to ditch this policy could spark rate rises in the US and derail economic recovery in the developed markets," Tigue adds.

In terms of sectors, Tigue sees healthcare as one to watch because valuations currently have been driven low by regulatory overhang related to US healthcare reform. Once that is out of the way price visibility for drugs in particular will return.

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