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Risk: What you need to know when building a portfolio

Hargreaves Lansdown’s Danny Cox says risk is more about investments not living up to expectations than how high the chance is of losing everything.

By Mark Smith, Senior reporter Follow
Wednesday June 20, 2012


Risk is one of the fundamental considerations of finance and is central to the process of building any portfolio. 

ALT_TAG While regulatory bodies such as the FSA aim to protect investors from taking on more risk than they can afford, recent events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the ongoing eurozone problems emphasise critical flaws with the concept: risk is nearly impossible to determine, almost completely subjective and open to sudden and unpredictable changes. 

"Risk is in the eye of the beholder," said Hargreaves Lansdown’s Danny Cox. "Risk can be understood as the possibility of not getting back your initial investment, and that is it at its most catastrophic, but in general terms it is best to understand risk as the chance of your investments not living up to expectations." 

"The last five years have taught us that regardless of how diversified your investments, all assets can fall together. Equities fell more than 40 per cent following the collapse of Lehman Brothers and bonds didn’t fare much better."

Most investors understand that the greater the amount of risk that they are willing to take on, the greater the potential return. 

However, even this simple principle is coming under threat as the world struggles to come to terms with the vast levels of debt held by the likes of Greece, Portugal and Ireland.  

Data from FE Analytics shows that the average Global Emerging Market fund, a relatively high-risk investment, has provided an annualised return of 6.2 per cent over the last 15 years compared with 4.64 per cent from the average Sterling Corporate Bond fund.

Annualised returns of sectors over 15-yrs

Name  Returns (%) 
IMA Global Emerging Markets  6.2 
IMA UK Equity Income   5.73 
IMA UK Gilt   5.5 
IMA Sterling Corporate Bond  4.64 
IMA UK All Companies  4.42 

Source: FE Analytics


One of the FSA’s requirements is that IFAs fill out an attitude-to-risk questionnaire with their clients before they can recommend any investments.

"Risk-profiling tools plug investors into a whole set of different parameters to come out with an answer but the trouble is that this isn’t the final stage. Risk is all about perception," explained Cox. 

He says that risk questionnaires attempt to quantify into a simple number what is an intellectually unquantifiable concept.

"Attitude to risk can be split into three broad subdivisions," he added. "An investors’ capacity for risk – how much they can physically afford to lose without impacting their lifestyle, their risk tolerance – this is fairly subjective and asks how much loss are investors willing to see in their portfolio at any given time, and finally, how much risk is required for them to realise their investment goals." 

"When you combine these then you can run into some problems when they don’t add up. An investor might need to put their money into higher-risk equities to reach a given goal but actually isn’t willing to see a 20 per cent loss on their investments, for instance."

Even when investors have decided on a set of investments that fit their attitude to risk, these are subject to change in the wider economy, while their profile is subject to changes in their own personal circumstances and other external factors. 

Share prices fluctuate, interest rates vary and inflation is a risk too. Investors who haven’t recently revisited their attitude to risk could discover that they are being too cautious. 

"Nobody knows how long the problems in the economy are going to run for," says Cox. "The eurozone crisis might be resolved tomorrow or it could be another four years. We recommend investors take a long-term view and spread themselves across as many risks as possible."

"If they don’t want to take risk, then leave their capital in cash and accept that they will lose money versus inflation."



 
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fortuneteller Jun 21st, 2012 at 11:02 AM

As long as the potential investor is fully informed of the risks and understands completely the capacity for loss and this is all hammered down then that is acceptable. Where a potential client feels they have the capacity for loss but do not have the assets to back this up then we should always fully explain that this is a high risk strategy. If the client still feels inclined to take a high risk then this should be fully documented in the fact find and any subsequent report. As long as we do our job in a thorough and resposible manner, we can not be held responsible for any losses clients incur.The risk questionaire is just another tool to help us to achieve this. Risk I agree is a subjective thing mostly but we sometimes have to try and protect investors from themselves to the best of our ability, not always easy, we are all so terrifyed of complaints, sometimes I feel the industry drifts towards cautious portfolios too much

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Rob McD Jun 20th, 2012 at 05:25 PM

I have yet to see any article that defines risk in an understandable way. I want to understand the difference between volatility and long term loss. I don't see anybody distinguishing between them.

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