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Downside winners outperform rallying rivals

The likes of Invesco Perpetual Income, First State Asia Pacific and Newton Global Higher Income all underperformed significantly in 2009 and 2010, but still finish near the top of their sector over five years.

By Joshua Ausden, News Editor, FE Trustnet Follow
Tuesday July 24, 2012


Funds that protect against the downside significantly beat those that shoot the lights out during up markets, according to the latest FE Trustnet study.

While many of these defensive funds fell well short of their benchmark during rising markets – particularly in 2009 and 2010 – their ability to protect against the downside has more than compensated for this in the medium- and long-term. 

In the UK Equity Income sector, the average fund that managed top-quartile status in 2008 and 2011 has returned 15.2 per cent over five years.

By contrast, the average fund that was top-quartile during the QE-inspired bull run of 2009 and 2010 lost 5.62 per cent. This means that these funds not only fall short of the average downside winner, but also of their sector average. 

Performance of portfolios and sector over 5-yrs

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Source: FE Analytics

All nine downside winners in the UK Equity Income sector have outperformed their sector average by at least 10 per cent over five years; by comparison, only one upside winner – Unicorn UK Income – managed to return more than the average UK Equity Income fund.

These downside winners include the likes of Invesco Perpetual Income, Invesco Perpetual UK Strategic Income and Trojan Income, which are all headed up by an FE Alpha Manager and have five FE crowns.

All three also significantly underperformed their sector in 2009. 

Performance of funds vs sector over 10-yrs

Name  5-yr returns (%)  10-yr returns (%)  
Trojan Income  29.19  N/A 
Invesco Perp UK Strategic Income   16.25  142.69 
Natwest Equity Income  15.15  N/A  
Threadneedle UK Equity Income   14.95  126.17 
Invesco Perp High Income   14.91  181.47 
SJP UK High Income   13.66  142.06 
Invesco Perp Income   13.65  175.52 
Threadneedle UK Equity Alpha Income   11.28  N/A  
Artemis Income   7.7  142.91 
IMA UK Equity Income   -2.3  98.78 

Source: FE Analytics

Those that were top quartile in 2009 and 2010 include the AXA Framlington UK Equity Income and Standard Life UK Equity Income Unconstrained portfolios, which are down 21.15 and 14.15 per cent respectively over five years. 

This trend extends to equity sectors outside of the UK as well; in IMA Asia Pacific ex Japan, for example, the average fund that managed top-quartile performance in 2008 and 2011 has returned 52.51 per cent over five years – around twice as much as the average top-quartile funds in both 2009 and 2010. 

Performance of portfolios and sector over 5-yrs

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics

The average upside winner managed to beat the average Asia Pacific ex Japan portfolio, however. 

First State Asia Pacific and Newton Asian Income, which both unperformed their sector average in 2009, are among those in the list of downside winners.

There is a similar pattern in the Global Emerging Markets, Europe ex UK and global equity sectors as well.

With the threat of an all-out collapse of the euro still a real risk to equity markets, finding funds that have the ability to protect against the downside is likely to be a priority for short-, medium- and even long-term investors. 

Darius McDermott, managing director of Chelsea Financial, agrees.

"If volatility is on the same level as we’ve seen since the financial crisis, then you’re definitely going to want to be in those that protect against the downside," he said. 

"When a fund falls 20 per cent more than a rival, it’s very, very difficult for them to make that money back."

"There’s also the issue of psychology for an investor; the last few years have made everyone a little more cautious, so you’d rather get from A to B with less volatility and a lower drawdown." 

McDermott also points to the importance of protecting against the downside in other periods in history, including the dotcom crash back in the early 2000s.



 
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Theo Jul 24th, 2012 at 04:20 PM


Quite interesting study. Some managers tend to over perform in falling markets and to under perform in rising markets. Others do the opposite. The skill (or luck) is in making the right guesses in advance. Minimising any losses is more important because if a fund falls by 50%(say), it will have to rise by 100% to break even.

In the last 30 years, in UK, there were 23 rising years and 7 falling ones, but 5 of the latter were in the 2nd half of this period. Not surprising if in the last 15 years the pessimist fund managers have been winning.

But who can say who the next winners will be? In investing, the only sure thing is the fees we shall be paying.

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