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How to cash in on the global population boom

Mining and agriculture funds are among those set to reap the benefits if the world population continues to grow at its current rate.

By Thomas McMahon, Reporter, FE Trustnet Follow
Friday July 27, 2012


With prices falling across a whole range of commodities in recent weeks, it may be time to consider investing in the funds exposed to them. 

Fears of a slowdown in China have hit mining stocks in particular, but many believe that the long-term outlook remains positive. 

"The next boom will be driven by other emerging economies which together dwarf China, and more opportunities will present themselves," said Brian Dennehy of fundexpert.co.uk. 

"Even if India just catches up with China, the potential for commodities is considerable."

"Developed countries will also drive prices higher. America needs to upgrade and maintain its broken sewage systems, maritime infrastructure and railways." 

"Now is not the time to be bottom fishing, as we believe commodity prices will fall further before the next boom begins in June."

Here are some options for anyone who believes the commodities supercycle will continue: 


Mining

The HSBC Global Mining Index has lost 14.94 per cent since the beginning of the year and 34.91 per cent over the past 12 months, with fears over a slowdown in China a major reason for the fall. 

BlackRock Global Funds World Mining, run by FE Alpha Manager Evy Hambro, is the most well-established fund in the sector and has returned 122.96 per cent to investors since launch. 

Performance of fund since launch vs index 

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics

It has done so with the volatility expected of the sector, recording a seven-year annualised figure of 31.99 per cent.

The max drawdown of the fund – the largest amount investors could have lost if they had bought and sold at the worst possible moments – is a frightening 70.72 per cent, but the long-term returns of the fund speak for themselves. 

Arjen Los, manager of the Dominion Chic fund, told FE Trustnet earlier this week that the long-term trend of industrialisation and excess growth in China was still going strong.


Gold

Gold has experienced a long-term surge that has seen the price of the metal grow by 427.35 per cent since 2002. 

Performance of commodity over 10-yrs 

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics

Since the start of the year however, it has lost 1.28 per cent, while it is down 9.21 per cent since its high in February.

Performance of commodity in 2012

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics

The iShares Gold Trust ETF has done a good job of tracking the price over five years, returning slightly less than the precious metal in that time. 

With more quantitative easing likely in the UK, and the possibility of similar measures being introduced in the US and even Europe in the coming years, it would be unwise to bet against gold continuing on its current upward trend. 

Richard Troue, investment analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, told FE Trustnet in April that an ETF was a good way of gaining exposure to gold. 


Agriculture

Record corn prices last month brought agriculture back into the picture for many investors. The immediate cause was a drought in the US, but data from FE Analytics shows the price of the crop has been growing steadily for many years. 

Performance of fund vs index 

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics

A number of agriculture funds have been launched recently, with many analysts predicting that a booming world population will lead to higher food prices. 

Ever since the MSCI Agriculture and Food Chain index was opened in April 2009, it has gained 58.59 per cent, with only Allianz Global Agricultural Trends managing to keep up.

The portfolio has made 72.59 per cent during this time, but with a three-year annualised volatility of 20.35 per cent, almost double the index’s 11.65 per cent. 



 
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Theo Jul 27th, 2012 at 04:52 PM

Congratulations to Black Rock, the doyen of the mining funds. It has been tracking the index perfectly, except for under performing it by about 3% pa which is about equal to its true annual charges. A closet tracker?

As for the Allianz Agric. fund its path is like that of a car driven by a drunk. Are there no ETFs we can buy?

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