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Stock pickers "powerless" in ongoing crisis

Industry insiders discuss how fund management and client expectations have changed after five years of crisis.

By Thomas McMahon, Reporter Follow
Wednesday August 01, 2012


Peter Walls, director Unicorn Asset Management

“From the fund manager’s point of view, for the first time in my career the political aspects of investment are to the fore, and really without being able to second-guess what politicians are going to do next it has made life very difficult. You cannot just build your investment process around pure fundamentals anymore; you have ALT_TAGto be aware of the political situation.” 

“This has led me to a certain extent to sit on my hands. I have not changed my portfolio radically over this period. It would be foolish to try to call markets but also to take all the risk out of my portfolio. So it’s a question of trying to be prepared for a change of direction even though it’s difficult to say when that may come, but it’s normally when you least expect it.”

“The key changes regarding investor expectations would be that because of changes in government bond rates the quest for income has accelerated. Now, demographics play a role in this theme, in that we are getting to the retirement of the baby-boomers so the quest for income was there already, but it has been accelerated.”

“Clients have become more cost-conscious as returns have suffered, so I think there’s probably quite a bit more focus on TER and more appetite for passives.”

“They want managers that are more risk-averse or concentrate more on portfolio protection. That’s probably the wrong way of going about things if you believe that markets have the potential to recover at some stage.” 


Anthony Rayner, portfolio analyst at Darwin Asset Management

“We’re in an unstable economic environment which everyone expects  to continue indefinitely, and that means people are paying far more attention to economic data releases and policy announcements. When the economy was more stable investors weren’t really interested in economic data points and stock-picking really drove markets, which is less and less the case now.” 

“If you look at Draghi’s speech last week for example, it drove markets up and had significant effect. Now that may not last, but it was an important event that moved markets. It’s not a stock-pickers world anymore.”

 “Those investors who are focussing solely on high quality stocks might not do as well as those who are considering the broad investment environment and the construction of a diversified portfolio.” 


Ben Willis, Whitechurch Securities

ALT_TAG“It’s probably true that if you buy and hold now you will be sitting on significant gains in five years. Corporates are in good health having restructured following the crisis and markets are low.”

“However, a lot of clients were invested in 2008, so it’s not easy to convince them of that. Others might remember the tech boom too.”

“Even though a lot of clients are risk-averse right now, given the market collapses in the past few years, this also cuts both ways.”

“There are a lot of clients who were coming off some quite high fixed savings rates in2009 and 2010 and they suddenly find they are being offered much lower rates and can’t get the income they need. They might be taking on more risk than they really want to in order to chase income.”



 
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Theo Aug 01st, 2012 at 04:47 PM

I think fund houses greatly exaggerate the importance of stock picking and research, no doubt for good marketing reasons.

We all know that index trackers, without one iota of research, score well above sector average. So if a manager can give a little more weight to a few companies he particularly fancies, or buy some on a day of unusual falls, he will finish the year above average and can name his bonus.

Once every 4 years, by pure chance he will find himself in the top quartile and he can name his bonus.

The IMA UK All Co. sector has 277 funds. Even if their managers pick their companies with a pin, about 4 of them will score top quartile 3 years in succession. And financial writers and IFAs (the latter with huge axes to grind), will be hailing them as the next messiahs and using them to "prove" the superiority of actively managed funds over the "cheapy trackers".

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David John Aburrow Aug 01st, 2012 at 02:23 PM

So"Stock pickers 'powerless' in ongoing crisis". Judging by the majority's track record in the past they were powerless then. Not that any of this will stop them getting their snouts ever deeper into the commissions/charges trough. Poor mug investor will continue to suffer. For me its a choice between trackers or a monkey with a dart board. Either way I win.

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