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Tide finally turns in equities' favour, says Fidelity chief

It’s been all gloom for equity investors in recent months, but there are some who think we’re over the worst.

By Joshua Ausden, News Editor Follow
Monday August 06, 2012


We’re on the verge of a strong run for equity markets, according to Fidelity’s Dominic Rossi (pictured), who thinks much of the downside risk is now factored into prices.

ALT_TAG The chief investment officer at the firm remains vigilant, but says he is quietly confident that risk assets will outperform for a sustained period.

“As time has progressed and doomsday scenarios have been avoided, equity markets have switched out of panic mode, and grown accustomed to the possibility of a Greek default and Spanish and Italian bailouts,” he explained.

“In my view, these risks are now largely factored into valuations. While we are by no means out of the woods yet, there are more reasons to be cautiously optimistic.”

“The tide is beginning to turn for equities and historically when such a turning point is reached markets can move ahead strongly.”

The last year or so has been pretty miserable for many equity investors. According to FE data, 11 of the 17 pure equity IMA sectors have lost money over a twelve month period, including the hugely popular IMA Global, Asia Pacific ex Japan and UK Smaller Companies sectors.

Performance of IMA sectors over 1yr
ALT_TAG
Source: FE Analytics

However, Rossi says it’s now time for investors to put the pain of the last year behind them and focus on the more optimistic macro outlook.

“Having been bearish on equities for the last 18 months, I now see growing evidence for cautious optimism on the part of equity investors,” he said. “The humility being shown towards equities has been justified, but equity markets have a habit of moving back out of the shadows when they become most overlooked.”

“Previously, I said the key risks to equity markets were bank deleveraging, policy inaction and political risk related to the eurozone crisis, and commodity prices. Encouragingly, these risks have been recognised and either mitigated by a growing acceptance among policymakers to undertake the right actions, or priced into equity valuations or, in the case of commodity prices, risks have subsided due to a mix of demand and supply factors.”

Though markets have rallied in short bursts during the last year, Rossi says the recent upturn – which has seen the FTSE 100 break the 5,800 barrier for the first time since April – is more telling.

“Markets are rising for the right reasons - income and security - despite the well-documented risks. With the prospect of significant downside in equities receding, I think markets now have an opportunity to build on what appears to be a consolidating platform.”

“Even with the US fiscal issue still outstanding, US bond yields suggest that most of the investors who wanted to get out of the equity market have already done so.”

“I feel a lot of the reasons for not owning equities have become well-established and well-embedded within current valuations. The time has come to stop thinking about selling equities and to start thinking about buying them.”

Rossi’s comments echo those of Rathbone’s chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth, who thinks the relative value in equities more than cancels out perceived headwinds.

FE Alpha Manager Martin Gray remains unconvinced however, arguing in a recent interview with FE Trustnet that positive corporate figures are “built on sand.”



 
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valiant Aug 06th, 2012 at 11:12 PM

That should read like Suzie not Theo.

Reply
valiant Aug 06th, 2012 at 05:36 PM

It's an interesting call by Mr Rossi. Markets have risen quite sharply in recent weeks, so in one sense he is slightly late. With the Footsie 100 only around 19% off its all time high you have to marvel at what is driving these markets. The answer can only be that investors think the debt crisis is solved. Like Theo I think it's not and is now entering a more dangerous phase.

Reply
Suzie Aug 06th, 2012 at 04:07 PM

Those two links make interesting reading alongside today's feature and thanks to Trustnet for tracking them down. In last August's article Mr Rossi suggests that "we will only see equity markets return to growth once there is a satisfactory resolution of the global debt hangover and developing markets can kick-start the world economy".

I really don't see that a satisfactory resolution of the debt crisis has yet appeared on even the distant horizon. America's enormous debt mountain has been swept under the carpet for now, and Europe, despite occasional reassuring utterances, is still crumbling at the edges. I'd love to be proved wrong, but for now I incline more to Martin Gray's view.

Reply
Theo Aug 06th, 2012 at 03:54 PM

The last two paragraphs remind me of Newton's law in physics which says that to every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. There must be a similar law in economics which says to every economic opinion there is an equal and opposite opinion.

Reply
Duncan Jones Aug 06th, 2012 at 03:01 PM

The truth is the world is still at the mercy of debt laden sovereigns and banks. Do NOT underestimate their opacity. The need to deleverage against a febrile economic backdrop is the proverbial Catch 22. Concentrate on the known knowns and focus on quality companies the likes of which Neil Woodford invests in.This situation has its origins in the 1971 decision by Nixon to abandon the gold standard.Don't let anyone try and tell you the genie is now back in the bottle 'cos it aint'!!

Reply
valiant Aug 06th, 2012 at 02:27 PM

Trustnet are showing various reports highlighting Fund Groups and individuals who are now bullish on equities. Mr Rossi claims he has been bearish on equities for eighteen months. Perhaps Trustnet could check their records and see if they can produce a report or article where Mr Rossi has detailed his bearish views in the last 18 months. Such detail would be very useful to see.

Reply
The FE Trustnet team Aug 06th, 2012 at 02:36 PM

Please find in below links.

http://www.trustnet.com/News/Research.aspx?id=294356

http://www.trustnet.com/News/Research.aspx?id=249416


Many thanks,

The FE Trustnet team

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