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How to stack the fixed income odds in your favour

23 March 2013

Many emerging nations now have lower debt ratios and larger foreign currency reserves than their counterparts in the West, yet their bonds offer far higher yields.

By Thomas McMahon

Senior Reporter, FE Trustnet

Emerging market bond funds are a relatively new option for retail investors looking for exposure to the fast-growing economies of the developing world.

Over the past three years such funds from highly regarded providers including Invesco have produced better returns than most of their UK-focused counterparts.

Some advisers question their value, suggesting that they may be too risky for retail investors.

However Tony Yousefian (pictured), manager of the OPM Fixed Interest fund, thinks the risks have been over-played.

ALT_TAG "The investment community has likened it to emerging market equities in terms of risk and volatility," he said.

"However, there are two reasons why we think that as an asset class it’s offering good value at the moment."

"Firstly, if you are going to lend to anyone you want it to be to someone who is going to pay you back."

"Putting it crudely, forget the developed countries, you want to lend to the emerging market countries which don’t have the same debt problems."

"Their debt ratios are far lower than the West, and they have strong [foreign exchange] reserves."

"Secondly, emerging markets by definition, if they are running better balance sheets, their currencies are stronger, as one of the ways in which developed markets have tried to reduce their debt burden is to devalue their currencies."

"But devaluation has two sides: if one side devalues, the other appreciates."

While Yousefian sees the currency issue as a benefit, Bestinvest’s Jason Hollands (pictured) cautions that it can work against investors as well.

ALT_TAG "There have been a lot of products launched in the space recently, including corporate bond funds, primarily driven by institutional investors like pension funds," he said.

"The problem for retail investors is a lot invest in local currencies rather than US-denominated bonds and so you are taking on a lot of currency risk."

Hollands adds that the funds are not as stable as those that invest in UK bonds.

"The thing is that typically bond investors want a lower-volatility asset than equities, but that is not the case with emerging market debt funds," he said.

"Currently we do not use them in our discretionary portfolios, although we do have one on our buy-list – Investec Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt."


Yousefian holds this £2.3bn fund, which is currently yielding 5.81 per cent and is managed by Peter Eerdmans, in the top-10 of OPM Fixed Interest.

Performance of fund since launch vs sector and benchmark


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Source: FE Analytics

Over the past five years it has been one of the best performers in the IMA Global Bonds sector, returning 95.45 per cent, according to data from FE Analytics.

Most of the fund’s gains came in the earlier part of that period; it has slipped into the second quartile of the sector over three years, making just 22 per cent.

Some commentators suggest that the asset class may have already passed its peak.

Mark Dampier (pictured), head of research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "I do not see the point of buying the emerging market bond funds right now, mostly because they are over-valued."

ALT_TAG "The time to buy is the next debt crisis, when you can get 7 per cent yield. The right time to buy emerging market debt is when it’s unwanted."

Yousefian, however, thinks that with global investors rediscovering an appetite for riskier assets, now could be a good time to buy into the funds.

"We have seen some selling off in the last few months as appetite for risk returns. It is one of the few areas you can still pick up value," he said.

Dampier says that he prefers high yield bond funds for his fixed interest exposure.

"I admit that I missed it [the strong performance of emerging market debt] to begin with, but I just do not think you are being rewarded enough."

"You could say the same for high yield too, but I have the better view of high yield."

Dampier prefers to hold Royal London Sterling Extra Yield, which is currently paying out 6.4 per cent, according to data from FE Analytics.

"I bought some more recently. In fact it’s the biggest holding in my portfolio and it’s going up most days."

"I wouldn’t expect super returns, but you are getting an equity-type return out of it."

The fund has performed exceptionally well over the past three years, making 47.98 per cent while the IMA Sterling Strategic Bond sector has risen just 22.88 per cent.

Performance of fund vs sector over 3yrs


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Source: FE Analytics

Dampier is also buying FE Alpha Manager Ariel Bezalel’s Jupiter Strategic Bond fund for his personal portfolio.


"I prefer to stick with Strategic Bond funds because I do not see interest rates going up in the UK. I am not saying that emerging market debt is going to crash, and I am not a believer that sovereign debt is going to blow up."

Data from FE Analytics shows that Jupiter Strategic Bond has made 70.24 per cent over five years, while the sector has grown by 36.38 per cent.

Performance of fund vs sector over 5yrs

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Source: FE Analytics

Performance has been more modest over three years, with the fund up 29.48 per cent while the sector has risen by 22.79 per cent.

The fund has continued to see strong inflows, however, and is currently £1.46bn in size.

"I am backing the manager really, he has done relatively well in this tough investment climate," Dampier said.

"You need to have funds that do different things in this type of market, because events keep changing things."

"Aiming your portfolio in one direction is wrong unless you think you are able to predict the future."

"Emerging market bonds could play a role in that, but to be honest I think there are better options right now."

Hollands says that for investors looking for emerging markets exposure, it is better to stick to equities.

"We like emerging market equities as an asset class because we feel valuations are quite attractive compared to a couple of years ago when investors were prepared to pay a premium for equities, but that has obviously reversed," he said.

"Within emerging markets, we are cautious on China."

"The market had got very nervous six to 12 months ago. Some of those fears have dissipated; somewhat obviously China does have quite considerable complications, not least the shadow banking system, which we are worried about."

"Our top pick at the moment, First State Global Emerging Markets Leaders, is underweight China."

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.