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Guy Stephens: You need selective equity exposure from here

28 October 2015

The Rowan Dartington Signature director talks through the trends he is seeing in the market and why investors shouldn’t just be buying the index.

By Guy Stephens,

Rowan Dartington Signature

Global economic growth concerns dominated financial markets throughout August and much of September. Since then however, equity markets seem to have found a new lease of life.

Having, on several occasions, fallen down to levels not seen since 2012, the FTSE 100 now sits almost 10 per cent higher than its recent low of 5,898 in August.

This bounce has been even more pronounced in the US where the S&P 500 now stands 13 per cent higher over the same period.

Have the concerns that caused the summer setback been resolved? Almost certainly not!

Performance of indices over 2015

 

Source: FE Analytics

China was undoubtedly the trigger and fears of economic slowdown have, if anything, spread beyond that of the Asian nation since then, as investors consider the knock-on effects of such a significant economy falling over.

 This was enough to dissuade the Federal Reserve from what seemed like an inevitable September rate rise and, six weeks on, it seems unlikely that view will have changed when Yellen and co reconvene this week.

A large portion of the market’s recent leg-up has been due to the more accommodative stance of some central banks, namely the US, Europe and China.

With all eyes drawn to the ever evolving macroeconomic environment at present, company fundamentals have once again been playing second fiddle.

So let’s consider the current corporate earnings season which has crept somewhat under the radar during this time, relative to previous quarters. 

Tech stocks have been some of the biggest winners so far. Google, Amazon and Microsoft have all posted strong third quarter revenue and earnings figures and the performance of the tech sector has responded in kind.

 

Performance of indices over 2015

 

Source: FE Analytics

Outside of tech, those sensitive to a rise in consumer spending look to have fared well. McDonald’s, the world’s biggest restaurant chain by sales, increased its quarterly sales for the first time since 2013.

Caterpillar Group, meanwhile, so often seen as a bellwether for the strength of the global economy, reported a sharp drop in quarterly net profit and reined in its outlook for 2016, as global activity remains weak in construction, mining and oil & gas.

These sectors unsurprisingly remain distressed given the question mark that has been placed over Chinese demand.

Manufacturing companies have also been feeling the squeeze, particularly exporters who face the added headwind of US dollar strength which remains significant. With other central banks loosening policy, September’s delayed rate rise offered little in the way of respite for the strength of the dollar.

So there are clearly some notable sector divergences in terms of underlying earnings and in terms of market performance.

By-and-large, market sentiment appears to be in a much happier place than it has been for the last two months.

The market bounce has though primarily been an expansion of valuation multiples, back to the more elevated levels that we had become accustomed to recently, prior to August’s setback. This increases the pressure on underlying earnings to keep pace in the face of some intimidating headwinds.

This all sounds somewhat familiar to the challenges faced by markets before growth concerns shot to the forefront, although perhaps with a slightly higher sense of instability in the wake of those events.

We believe, more than ever, that the benefits of being carefully selective with your exposure to equity markets provide the best opportunity to outperform.

Guy Stephens is a director at Rowan Dartington Signature. The views expressed are his own and should not be taken as investment advice.

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