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Guy Stephens: Should investors keep buying the dips?

08 December 2016

Rowan Dartington technical investment director Guy Stephens looks at the case for equities against an increasingly challenging market backdrop.

By Guy Stephens,

Rowan Dartington

There would appear be a new word in circulation and this word is ‘Trumpism’, whether it is good is probably the global six million dollar/euro/yen/sterling/yuan question.

However, whatever the negatives of Trumpism, Brexit or now political unrest in Italy, investors are buying equities, despite dire warnings to the contrary if the worst should happen. 

The fact that Matteo Renzi lost his structural reform vote is not a surprise. What has surprised is the degree of the loss and this has further highlighted the disquiet within the electorate against the political elite, but now in Europe.

Quite where this leads is open to conjecture and debate with predictions lurching from systemic eurozone risk to an Italian banking crisis bailed out by the European Central Bank to not much at all as Brussels puts in measures to protect European integration.

Meanwhile, unemployment and immigration remains high and growth remains low whilst the weakest Eurozone members are left to struggle on in an inflexible straitjacket that benefits few.

2017 is a European election year and this is now shaping up to be a fascinating clash of the disillusioned voter facing up to the ruling elite. Quite how far they are prepared to go in voting in radical parties is a moot point but this possibility will certainly serve to create nervousness in Brussels.

First Brexit, then Trump and now a resounding defeat for Renzi, who was one of the most visionary leaders within the EU. Both Germany and France have significant issues back at home such that the focus of their leaders is not on a new EU vision, more a maintenance of the status quo so they can focus on their own electoral fortunes at home. That said, Austria elected a moderate and pro-EU president this weekend, a decision welcomed by many across Europe. 

We are not likely to see any significant change soon and as long as Mario Draghi continues to reaffirm his moral hazard quantitative easing insurance bazooka, then we probably have little to fear, for now.

I can recall commentators heralding the end of the eurozone back in 2008 and here we are today, with very little changed in terms of the original structural design despite various stresses and strains along the way. It is becoming abundantly clear, that despite any desire for the electorate to change the eurozone, that change will only come about through a measured and calm thought process with an agreed plan so as to limit financial turmoil.

We are not dealing with a breakaway unilateral banana republic here. This is the largest currency union and wealthiest economic area in the world. Even if anti-EU parties manage to gain some political power in 2017, their ability to effect dramatic and tumultuous change to the incumbent system is limited without agreement from all sides. We saw this with Greece where there were bloody noses all round following some strongly antagonistic rhetoric on gaining power.

This could also well be the case with Brexit and Trumpism.

Effecting change in the world takes time and should be a gentle nudge on the tiller by a few degrees over time rather than a sudden shock to the system. Those who have grandiose ideas of ‘power to the people’ and ‘revolution’ should stop dreaming of the unlikely and stop scaremongering that crisis lies ahead.

Much of the global financial system is still on life support via QE with central banks keeping the banking and economy stable. Whilst we can debate the success or otherwise of the extremes of monetary policy that we have seen over the last eight years, the abilities of the central authorities to exert control and prevent meltdown has been remarkable.

Perhaps this is why, despite Matteo Renzi losing his vote and the rise of populism, the markets believe there really is only so far that this will be allowed to disrupt the stability status quo, and probably, thank goodness for that.

Trumpism is a return to the animal spirits of capitalism with promises to cut taxes, dramatically increase spending and reflate US economic growth.

Ripping up the Dodd-Frank act that came into force after the banking crisis will be difficult for Trump to achieve but he may well succeed in watering down the more restrictive parts to it which are there to avoid a repeat banking crisis! Regulating the financial system into stasis after failing to regulate it sufficiently in the past which led to the 'Great Financial Crisis' is probably a perfectly understandable human behavioural reaction.

Perhaps it is now time for the entrepreneurial spirits to be let out once more even if this comes with the more distasteful side of entrepreneurial flair that encapsulates Donald Trump. His tweeting behaviour and lack of respect for historical political protocol is certainly going to provide for interesting headlines. It is abundantly clear that after two terms of American diplomacy and perceived impotency, we are going to see the return of forceful muscle flexing and American posturing. 

Where all this political change leads to will only become apparent throughout next year. Meanwhile, as the employment numbers showed on Friday, the US economy is performing well, interest rates are almost certain to rise on 14th December and the US capitalist machine looks primed to take a further lurch forward. Whilst that lies ahead, it is likely investors will continue to buy equities on the dips which could come along quite frequently as the politics ebb and flow.

Guy Stephens is technical investment director at Rowan Dartington. The views expressed above are his own and should not be taken as investment advice.

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