There are many ways to describe the outlook for the US and world economies. But at the midpoint of 2025, one word has risen to the top of the lexicon: uncertainty.
A lack of clarity over US trade policy — with rising tariffs at the center of the storm — has delivered a shock to the global economy. For the first time since 2022, US GDP in the first quarter declined. Some companies stopped issuing forward guidance. Capital expenditures have been delayed. Cargo volumes have plummeted at major ports. Hiring has slowed.
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