Gilts and energy shocks: an unhappy relationship

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Publication date: 10 April 2026

Published by: Guinness Global Investors

Before tensions over Iran exploded into open conflict, the market had become increasingly comfortable with the broader global disinflation story. Gilts had rallied hard into the end of February on expectations of further Bank of England interest rate cuts, helped further by lower US Treasury yields. This made them vulnerable to a sharp reversal as war in the Middle East caused oil and gas prices to surge. 

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