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Record gold price to rise further | Trustnet Skip to the content

Record gold price to rise further

02 March 2011

Western monetary policy and uncertainty in the Middle East will continue to drive the precious metal’s growth.

By Mark Smith,

Reporter, Financial Express

The price of gold has surged to another all-time high in the wake of the ongoing crisis in North Africa, but Alpha Manager Tom Winnifrith, who manages SF t1ps Smaller Companies Gold, believes the idea that people are seeking the commodity as a safe haven is wrong.

"Gold prices have only been driven by the Middle East in the last two weeks or so," he said.

"It has gone from $800 an ounce to $1,400 in the six months prior to the unrest because of the extraordinary global economic situation."

The fund manager believes that it is the policies of Western economies and not geopolitical unrest that is pushing prices ever higher.

"People are ignoring the fact that uprisings began in the Middle East because of bread riots and rising inflation, not because of despotic rulers. This was a direct result of quantitative easing," he added.

"The inflation genie is out of the bottle, which will have a lasting effect, not just on gold but on economies as a whole. The situation is not being helped by the printing of money in the UK and US to bring currency in line with Asian currencies."

Richard Davis, who is a portfolio manager within BlackRock’s natural resources equity team, agrees that gold is being driven by more than civil unrest.

"Medium-term factors, such as investor concern about the global recovery, currency volatility, and the increasing pricing power and size of the emerging-market consumer, will continue to drive demand for gold over the medium term," he said.

"The behavioural shift by central banks into buying and storing gold again has played a significant role in increasing demand while substantially reducing supply for the rest of the market."

According to Winnifrith, gold prices will continue to rise and investors could look to make gains on the precious metal.

"If you asked me whether I would rather own gold or currency I would say gold, but the real money is in gold equities."

"In gold bullion you might expect to make 50 per cent but having shares in gold equity you can expect to make four times that amount." he explained.

Performance of funds over 18-months

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Source: Financial Express Analytics

SF t1ps Smaller Companies Gold has returned investors 123 per cent over the last five years, compared with Investec Global Gold returning 49 per cent and BlackRock Gold & General returning 40 per cent in the same period.

Richard Hancock, analyst at Financial Management Bureau, shares Winnifrith’s outlook.

He said: "I don’t think gold has reached its peak yet. The figure $2,000 has been suggested by commentators whose opinions I really trust, so, relative to currency, I think it is still a good time to hold it."

However, Graham Toone, head of investment research at AFH Wealth Management, disagrees: "I can understand investment as a hedge against geopolitical instability but gold is not an area we feel comfortable investing in," he said.

"For the man in the street it is too unpredictable, too hard to value. Gold has had a great run but we believe in prices returning to mean."

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