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China set for a rebound | Trustnet Skip to the content

China set for a rebound

07 February 2012

Pictet’s Klaus Bockstaller explains why he is optimistic about the region's prospects in the coming months.

By Alex Paget,

Reporter

China’s poor performance last year was a short-term cyclical slowdown rather than a sign of things to come, according to Klaus Bockstaller, head of emerging markets at Pictet Asset Management.

While the dire performance of the Chinese stock market last year has put many people off the region, Bockstaller thinks investors should think twice before cutting their exposure.

"Investors will scrutinise data for any signs of knock-on effects on consumer spending and on bank bad debt ratios, but we remain confident that China will deal with near-term cyclical pressures without triggering a deeper downturn," said Bockstaller, who also heads up the FSA-recognised offshore Pictet Emerging Markets fund.

"Emerging market equities are looking relatively cheap in terms of price/earnings and price/book ratios, which are both well below long-term averages and close to levels that have in the past revived the risk appetite of investors."

The manager also points to Russia as a particularly interesting prospect for investors, though his focus remains more fixed on China.

According to FE Analytics, the average IMA China/Greater China fund lost 21.88 per cent in 2011. Every portfolio in the sector lost at least 10 per cent, while the worst performer – Henderson Horizon China – lost 31.45 per cent.

However, the market has rebounded significantly so far this year, and Bockstaller believes these funds are set to regain their 2011 losses before long.

Performance of sector since beginning of 2011

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics

"Equity prices in emerging markets fell 18 per cent last year, but rallied by 10 per cent in January – strongly in Brazil, India and Russia," he explained.

"Moreover, emerging market currencies – whose weakness added to the losses suffered by emerging market equity investors in 2011 – are now showing signs of strength as foreign investment flows back," he added.

His views echoes those of manager Fen Sung, who said in a recent FE Trustnet article that the Chinese markets are likely to rally in the coming year.

The Pictet Emerging Market fund has $1.1bn assets under management (AUM). It has returned 229 per cent in the last decade, marginally underperforming its MSCI Emerging Markets benchmark.

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.