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Obama victory is excellent news for investors, says Williams | Trustnet Skip to the content

Obama victory is excellent news for investors, says Williams

08 November 2012

The MAM manager believes the final obstacle to a full recovery in the world's largest economy has now been removed.

By Alex Paget,

Reporter, FE Trustnet

The resolution to the uncertainty caused by the presidential race could kick-start US markets, according to Gervais Williams, managing director of MAM.

ALT_TAGWilliams believes that a clear-cut Obama victory means that tail risks have been reduced and the country can now move forward. 

"I think it is very good news that it was a clear-cut decision, because there was a real risk that it would have been very close and we would have been stuck in the same uncertain position we were previously in."

"We had the concerns that we did not know what Romney would have done in relation to China and the Fed’s liquidity measures."

"I think the result has been excellent in that respect," he said.

Williams thinks that now the election is over more attention will be drawn to the looming US fiscal cliff.

"The key issue now is the US fiscal cliff and unfortunately we are seeing that the Senate and the House of Representatives are in conflict over the issue."

"I think in the build-up to the election everyone was focusing on the result and the way to address the fiscal cliff has not been decided upon yet so it is still very uncertain."

While Williams remains concerned about the debt ceiling, he believes an agreement will be reached and then US markets will undoubtedly prosper.

"I do think the US fiscal cliff will be resolved, but I think it will be a very rocky road in the meantime."

"Once it is resolved, I think the underlying economy is OK so we as investors can look to add value to our portfolios in the region," he continued.

Simon Edelsten, manager of the Artemis Global Select fund, agrees with Williams that investors can now start to feel more confident.

"Businesses and investors tend to hold off in a run-up to an election as they don’t want to make a foolish decision when they are not sure of the outcome," he commented.

"This result gives investors the confidence to do what they were probably going to do in the first place."

"The US economy has been slowly but steadily recovering over the last few years and I think that will continue."

He added: "With an Obama victory we now know QE3 will carry on so bonds and banks don’t need to be re-addressed, which is good."

In terms of the fiscal cliff, Edelsten believes that the problems are being over-hyped across the Atlantic and it would be irrational to think a solution cannot be made.

"In America I think they are worrying about this too much," he said.

"In the build-up to the election the Republicans were trying to embarrass Obama over the fiscal cliff, but now the opportunity is not there. Taxes will have to go up of course, but that is the same everywhere."

"I think there is now a much better chance that a bilateral agreement can be reached by the end of the year."

The manager says he takes a very benign view of the problem and feels that worry over the fiscal cliff is part and parcel of the election debate so now both sides will undoubtedly come together to resolve the issue.

"I don’t think the Republicans will challenge a freshly elected president, because it would damage the US’s credit rating; I think it would also be deeply undemocratic," he continued.

"American politics is very pragmatic, these people are not idiots and they know this is no time to muck around as they are sitting on trillions of dollars of debt."

Luke Hickmore, co-manager of the SWIP Strategic Bond fund, agrees with Edelsten about the over-hyped fiscal cliff and believes investors can take solace from US history.

"The US economy and markets continue to improve and I think the fiscal cliff is a red herring," he said.

"We have seen that the US has gone to the brink a few times recently, be it either the national debt or Lehman crisis, and it managed to recover."

"I think they will certainly sort it out."

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