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Retail investor opinion divided on where to invest

21 April 2010

Stockmarket volatility leave investors taking shelter in absolute return funds and other defensive areas.

By Martin Wood,

Senior Analyst, Financial Express

The Investment Management Association (IMA) recently published its statistics for February, and they tell an interesting tale of where retail investor sentiment has been heading. In a moment we can examine some informative fund-specific performance data, but let us first review the large movements that have been taking place.

In sectoral terms, Property was predominant in net retail sales over the last quarter of 2009, and in January of this year. In February this sector slipped to fifth place, and a number of other trends - a polarised mix of caution and optimism - are suggested by the sales figures.

Bubbling to the top stratum are the Sterling Strategic Bond and Absolute Return sectors, both relatively defensive areas to invest in. They are joined by an enthusiastic uptake of Global Growth funds, and this in an ISA season which has logged the highest sales for eight years.

That mixture of the cautious and the internationally adventurous comes at the expense of equities in the UK All Companies sector, which sits near the bottom of the sales chart, and indicates that doubts still persist about the fragility of UK PLC's recovery. Another casualty is Sterling Corporate Bond, which suffered net outflows of investors' cash.

These movements indicate a disparate mood among retail investors. Absolute Return funds promise a consistent return - better than cash deposits - regardless of market conditions, and it is not difficult to see why risk-averse investors would choose this route. But similarly, the investment-grade securities in the Sterling Corporate Bond sector are uncorrelated to the stockmarket, and offer a shelter from its vagaries. What seems to be happening in bond investments is a shift from the stolid to the higher-yielding, junk-tinged fringes of corporate debt, as investors seeking income push the envelope.

If the rise in absolute return funds reflects uncertainties about UK's stockmarket, the idea that funds with a global reach can bypass the malaise that continues to afflict developed Western economies also feeds into this view - leading investors to widen their horizons.

With this mix of what could be called 'I'm an investor, get me out of here', it would be interesting to look at some of the best funds in these sectors, and to take stock of how their investors have fared over a, frankly, chaotic three-year period. Our first table sets out some headline performance figures for the sectors themselves.

Total Return Bid-Bid performance table from UK IMA UT and OEICs universe

Name  6-mth  1-yr  3-yr  5-yr  Volatility 3-yr
IMA Absolute Return
 1.80  10.49  10.38  -  3.89
IMA Global Growth
 10.63  37.81  5.28  49.44  19.21
IMA Property
 6.82  25.92  -30.15  0.67  15.35
IMA Sterling Corporate Bond
 5.42  26.76  8.76  15.03  7.65
IMA Sterling Strategic Bond
 6.79  30.93  10.28  19.42  8.37
IMA UK All Companies
 8.70  41.91  -7.05  35.35  19.99

Data to 19/04/2010. Rebased in £ sterling

It is not difficult to see where the trade-offs between risk in the form of volatility, and return lie in this snapshot, but the median values for sector will mask a wide range of outcomes at the individual fund level. For the next table, we have selected the best funds in each sector based on their three-year total return.

Best in sector over 3-yrs TR

Sector  Fund  6-mth  1-yr  3-yr  5-yr Volatility 3-yr
IMA Absolute Return
Schroder - SISF Emerging Markets Debt
 5.94  14.77  57.96  73.89  9.75
IMA Global Growth
Ecclesiastical - Amity International
 13.48  42.93  33.09  107.16  17.89
IMA Property
Threadneedle - UK Property
 4.79  4.55  -9.08  -  2.89
IMA Sterling Corporate Bond
M&G - Strategic Corporate Bond
 5.11  23.26  36.34  45.57  6.22
IMA Sterling Strategic Bond
M&G - Optimal Income
 6.58  30.56  33.74  -  8.24
IMA UK All Companies
L&G - UK Alpha
 4.86  66.71  20.71  -  22.80

Data to 19/04/2010. Rebased in £ sterling

A note is required here: the Schroder fund is domiciled in Luxembourg, and denominated in US dollars. It is nonetheless licensed for sale to UK investors, and accepted by the IMA in its UK listings. Our link will connect with the fund's factsheet, from which it can be seen that its structure is extensive. Interested investors will no doubt wish to approach this offering with the benefit of professional advice.

That said, the table shows how markedly individual funds' performance can diverge from their sector averages in terms of both the risk and the reward side of the equation. What we need here is a measure that can gauge whether that trade-off is working in investors' favour, and Sharpe Ratio can provide a broad indicator. Our third table runs the beauty contest on that basis.

Best in sector: Sharpe

Sector
Fund
 6-mth  1-yr 3-yr
 5-yr Volatility  3-yr
Sharpe
IMA Absolute Return
Schroder - SISF Emerging Markets Debt
 5.94  14.77 57.96
73.89
 9.75  1.31
IMA Global Growth
Ecclesiastical - Amity International
 13.48  42.93  33.09  107.16  17.89  0.39
IMA Property
Threadneedle - UK Property
 4.79  4.55  -9.08  -  2.89  0.00
IMA Sterling Corporate Bond
M&G - Strategic Corporate Bond
 5.11  23.26  36.34  45.57  6.22  1.16
IMA Sterling Strategic Bond
UBS - Active Bond
 1.5  5.79  18.72  23.07  2.87  0.83
IMA UK All Companies
L&G - UK Alpha
 4.86  66.71  20.71  -  22.80  0.13

Data to 19/04/2010. Rebased in £ sterling


The line-up of best in sector has held steady, with only UBS Active Bond displacing M&G's Optimal Income into second place. The difference in Sharpe, however is negligible - UBS's 0.83 plays an M&G result of 0.81.

Arguably, the seeds of Property's fall from grace can be seen in Threadneedle's statistics, while UBS has some way to go to show that its strategic vehicle can outperform plain old Sterling Bonds.

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.