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Edelsten: US bull-run far from over

03 September 2012

The S&P 500 is up 20 per cent over one year, but further monetary stimulus is likely to give markets a further boost.

By Thomas McMahon,

Reporter, FE Trustnet

A third round of quantitative easing (QE) in the US will give the American markets a boost of confidence, according to Simon Edelsten, manager of the Artemis Global Select fund, meaning investors should think about adding to their positions in the world's largest economy.  ALT_TAG

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said at the annual Jackson Hole monetary symposium last week that the bank was ready to make further asset purchases when necessary, which was widely understood to mean the policy would be implemented this autumn.

Edelsten, who is overweight the country in his globally focused fund, says that the policy has worked in the recent past and should support investment in the country. 

"It’s positive for confidence – in a few months’ time we will have had another round of QE and the election will be over, with all the worries about the fiscal cliff having passed," he claimed. 

"Housing data is already picking up and the employment figures are not bad – certainly much better than anywhere in Europe." 

Classical economic theory says investors should expect inflation to follow quantitative easing, boosting the prices of real assets such as high-end property, but Edelsten says this has not been happening. 

"The surprise from the point of view of classical economics is that recent quantitative easing hasn’t had much effect on inflation," he continued. 

"In simple terms, there are two ways money is created: money printing by central banks and fractional reserve lending by commercial banks – lending out $12 for every dollar placed with them." 

"What has been happening is that the commercial banks have been lending less – say $10 for every dollar – and that has been replaced by money printing." 

"This means that we can take QE3 as a positive for the US economy." 

Edelsten says that investors in the US need to pick their angles carefully, but that there are areas that can be hugely profitable.

"We have to find really good themes to invest in America. One is the spending power of the older generation, because all the wealth in the US is with them, so when they feel confident to spend their money – where will they spend it?" 

"For example, outdoor leisure stocks are a good area – we have the owner of the North Face brand and Shimano, the world’s largest bicycle-part maker." 

"Another area is banks, we have just bought a couple of regional banks in Texas and the sun-belt area." 

"A third area is shale gas – it’s hard to find a way to invest in this because the headline effect is the product becoming cheaper, which we have seen recently is bad for the producers." 

A number of gas producers have been forced to write down the value of their deposits due to the plummet in gas prices, and Edelsten says it is vital to look down the economic chain to find opportunities. 

"One of gas's main uses is in polyethylene, which goes into PVC. The biggest maker of it in the US is Shin-Etsu Chemical. I went to Japan to meet them recently and they confirmed that their margins have never been so good." 

"They never budgeted for falling gas prices so it has been a god-send for them." 

Performance of fund since launch vs sector and index

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Source: FE Analytics

Data from FE Analytics shows that Artemis Global Select has outperformed its IMA Global sector and MSCI AC World index since its launch in June last year.

Edelsten says continuing US competitiveness is one of the two themes that the fund is driven by, along with emerging market growth. 

In another sign of confidence in the US economy, BlackRock today announced the imminent launch of a new US equity income trust, to be managed by Bob Shearer and Kathleen Anderson.

BlackRock North American Income Trust will target a yield of 4 per cent. The company said in a statement: "The cash US companies are generating today is at high levels, suggesting equities are inexpensive and attractive in yield terms as compared with government and corporate bonds."

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