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Schroders equity head talks up US prospects | Trustnet Skip to the content

Schroders equity head talks up US prospects

13 September 2010

Schroder's Maisonneuve believes the prospects for sustained economic growth are better in the US than Europe, Japan or even China.

By Charlotte Banks,

Analyst, Financial Express

The US has the most favourable demographic profile in the developed world, and with it, offers some of the best prospects for investors according to Schroders' Virginie Maisonneuve.

Maisonneuve, who is head of global & international equity at Schroders said like the rest of the developed world, the US is ageing.

"By 2050, the median US citizen will be 5 years older than today and the proportion of the population over 65 will rise from 13 per cent to 21.6 per cent," she said.

"However, by western standards, the US looks positively youthful. The proportion of retirees in Japan, and the median age in western Europe, is already higher than the 2050 estimates for the US. Old-age dependency in the US will be just 35 per cent in 2050, compared to 51 per cent in western Europe and a whopping 74 per cent in Japan. The US even compares favourably with China, where the proportion of the population of working age will converge with that of the US over the next 40 years, and dependency will be 38 per cent by 2050."

In terms of overall population growth, Maisonneuve said the US is also exceptional in that it is growing throughout the forecast period at 0.77 per cent per year.

"In Japan and some western European countries, the population has already begun to shrink, and several others, including China, are expected to follow suit in coming decades," she said.

Maisonneuve said the US does have the most favourable demographic profile of any country in the developed world, pointing to higher fertility and a relatively relaxed attitude to immigration. She said this implies that the prospects for sustained economic growth and consumption are better than in Europe, Japan and in the long run, even China.

Data from Financial Express shows that in the last 12 months to 9 September, the MSCI North America Index outperformed the MSCI Japan, MSCI China and MSCI Europe Indices.

Performance of MSCI indicies over 1-yr

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Source: Financial Express Analytics

Maisonneuve said the ageing population poses significant problems for some companies and industries in the US.

"Occupations with the greatest replacement needs as the boomers retire include airline pilots, engineers, construction workers and mechanics. The US manufacturing sector is likely to face skills shortages and rising labour costs, eroding competitiveness versus low-cost Asian economies, although clearly relative currency values will also play a key role over the next decade," she said.

Further analysis shows there are two IMA UT and OEIC defined funds with exposure to North America and the manufacturing sector, these are the Dimensional - International Value fund and the Insynergy - Odey fund.

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Source: Financial Express Analytics

Looking at the whole of the data on Financial Express reveals there are 39 funds with exposure to the US and the manufacturing sector, this includes a number of mutual and offshore funds.

Maisonneuve points out that these are also the industries with the largest unfunded pension liabilities.

"General Motors, Ford, Boeing, General Electric and Delta Airlines all appear in the top ten most underfunded plans. Given declining bond yields and volatile stock market returns, current accounting assumptions appear untenable, and adjusting these will result in higher pension costs that could jeopardise earnings by as much as 10 per cent for some large-cap names," she said.

In addition to pension funds, further analysis shows there are 32 IMA UT and OEIC defined funds with exposure to General Electric, one with exposure to Ford, one with exposure to General Motors, three with exposure to Boeing and one with exposure to Delta.

Looking forward Masionneuve said she believes the US is very much a stockpicker's market.

"Some companies are well-positioned to benefit from demographic trends both domestically and internationally, and have demonstrated the ability to manage their labour costs and pension liabilities. Others are simply value traps. Its demographic profile bestows on America a country competitive advantage, but only some companies will be able to translate this into shareholder returns," she concluded.

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