Growth over the next year is likely to be led by the emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) after the recovery in Europe, the US and Japan slowed in the second quarter of 2010, he said.
In the long-term, Geffen believes the outlook for global equity funds is still favourable, but market conditions suggest it is as much a question of what to avoid, as what to invest in.
Developed markets vs emerging markets over 10-yrs
Source: Financial Express Analytics
Geffen, who is rated a Trustnet Alpha Manager, said his own stock selection was highly reliant on in-house researchers and economists, who had helped him make the right calls on behalf of the Neptune Global Equity fund, selling out of stakes in financials in 2007 ahead of that sector's collapse in 2008.
The process also led him to energy and oil in 2003, just before the market started to improve. The fund's portfolio is fairly concentrated, focusing on between 40 to 50 stocks in areas where growth is seen as more likely. Geffen said this allows Neptune to invest in stocks in which there is high conviction, while also leaving a wide selection of stocks in which to consider investing later on.
Geffen vs peer group over 10-yrs
Source: Financial Express Analytics