Former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci has warned that US president Donald Trump’s decision-making for the rest of his term will be driven by a need for attention and desire to make money, generating continued volatility for markets and the US economy.
Scaramucci was appointed White House communications director on 21 July 2017, making a swift exit just 10 days later. Reflecting on his brief stint working for Trump and the decision to accept the job when offered, he admitted “the whole thing was a disaster” and that he had made “an ego-based decision”.
“Every time I have done that, I have made a mistake – and that is something investors can do, too,” he said, speaking at the Guinness Global Investors annual conference. “We can get emotionally tied to something without looking at it with more objectivity.”
Scaramucci noted that since Trump’s years as a “buffoon” on Wall Street, “[the president] has become darker”.
“He wanted to do all the crazy stuff he’s doing now in his first term,” he claimed. “Trump wanted to build an arch. Trump wanted to rename the Kennedy Center. Trump wanted to build a ballroom. He wanted to impose 50% [tariffs].”
The difference during his second term is that the president is “not following the political cadence of the people anymore”, Scaramucci warned.
One of Trump’s most controversial decisions in his second term so far was announced on 2 April 2025, also known as ‘Liberation Day’, when he introduced tariffs, including a 10% blanket duty on all imports and a second tier of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs targeting specific countries. This rocked markets as they tried to absorb the levies.
Many of these tariffs have since been deemed illegal by the Supreme Court, prompting the US government to provide refunds to the tune of tens of billions of dollars.
There are also the ongoing ramifications of the US’ and Israel’s conflict with Iran to consider, including energy crises and inflation.
Despite all this volatility, the S&P 500 has managed a 16.1% gain during Trump’s second term, bolstered by the AI build-out. However, it has been outpaced by the rest of the world, as shown in the graph below.
Performance of the S&P 500 vs MSCI ACWI ex USA
Source: FE Analytics
Scaramucci said: “When Trump flips a coin in the morning, he’s got two things in his head: ‘I want attention and I want to make money’. Depending on where the coin lands that day, that’s what he’ll focus on.”
He expects this mentality to dominate the president’s decision-making in the final two years of his term, meaning extended volatility is likely.
However, Trump could be checked by the upcoming midterm elections in November.
Scaramucci said he is more confident that the Democrats will take the House, which will go some way to diminishing Trump’s political power. However, he thinks Democrats will have a tougher time clinching control over the Senate.
He pointed to the vote between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton in Texas as a key battleground.
“I think it will be very tough for Talarico to win in Texas,” Scaramucci noted. “Yes, he’s up in the polls and up in the money but you must understand the machinery of the big red machine in the Texas political system. They are going to bring out the vote, even though Paxton is a very flawed candidate.”
According to Scaramucci, good news for Trump in the midterms would be beating Talarico in Texas and the re-election of Republican senator Susan Collins.
“If those two things happen for Trump, he will more or less keep the Senate,” Scaramucci said. “And I think those things are very possible.”
Trump has pledged to spend up to $500m on Republican candidates in the midterms.
Scaramucci also warned that the societal costs of Trump’s decisions are important to keep in mind when considering long-term returns.
“I don’t want to live in a McMansion in a barbed-wire-fence compound with security while my fellow neighbours are suffering – it’s very bad for society, and the US dollar has lost 28% of its value since January of 2020,” he said.
According to the independently verified inflation and economic data platform Truflation, everyday prices since January 2020 to 15 September 2026 increased by around 29%, while the dollar today buys around 22-23% less than it did in January 2020.
“That [dollar] decline may be okay for investors – they can figure out how to hedge against that – but that is not okay for working class families,” Scaramucci said.
But the US also has longer-term issues that span beyond Trump’s term. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is currently approximately 126%, with federal debt sitting at $40trn.
Scaramucci claimed the US is a “deficit-spending, deficit-laden country” paying for debt through the “most pernicious and most regressive form of taxation, which is inflation”.
“Believe it or not, we had the deficit under control in the 1990s and we printed a budget surplus in the year 2000,” Scaramucci said. “It is possible to get it back under control without DOGE or a chainsaw – but it would require 15 to 20 years of united thinking by American political leaders.”