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Commercial property returns begin to slow down | Trustnet Skip to the content

Commercial property returns begin to slow down

29 October 2010

IFAs and fund managers alike forecast minimal growth for the commercial property market next year.

By Lora Coventry,

Analyst, Financial Express

Commercial property has had its time in the sun according to Graham Toone, head of investment research at Worcester-based IFA AFH Wealth Management.

He has completely retreated from the sector, and pulled around £15m of clients' money from investments there this year.

"We went into the sector late last year and saw some excellent returns, but that's now petered out. For example, the unit price of the A class income unit of the M&G Property Portfolio fund fell by 0.4 per cent in the month to 20 October," he said.

Performance of M&G Property Portfolio fund vs IMA Property sector over 1-yr

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Source: Financial Express Analytics

Financial Express
data backs up Toone's point. It shows the fund underperforming its IMA Property sector in the year to 27 October.

The group has instead moved its clients' cash into high yield bond funds such as Aegon High Yield Bond and M&G High Yield Corporate Bond.

Commercial property was given a boost earlier this year after prices bottomed out at bargain levels post-economic crash, and pushed rental yields higher. Property then started to catch investor attention as they sought out sources for income, and that enthusiasm pushed capital values higher. Toone says this growth has now stopped.

Commercial property is also out of favour with David Wynn, adviser at Bentley Jennison. He agrees that the asset class has lost momentum, but says it can still add value to an investor's portfolio.

"The rally that property has seen has petered out, so the value of the asset class will now come from its yield. It is a good portfolio diversifier, but there won't be any appreciation in capital value in property funds for a long time," he said.

However, not all investors are negative on the sector. Ed Trevillion is head of real estate research at SWIP. He says the long term reasons behind investing into property haven't changed.

"Commercial property offers a stable and competitive income, mostly generated from leases. There is a potential for capital gain, and a low correlation with other asset classes," he said.

SWIP forecasts that commercial property will grow at an average of 5.5 per cent per annum over a three year period from the third quarter of 2010, or at an average of 7.8 per cent per annum over a five year period from the same date.

Trevillion concedes that there is a slowdown in the commercial property market, however. He said: "The market is turning, that is true, so our growth forecast for 2011 is two per cent."

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