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Case study: The commodities story | Trustnet Skip to the content

Case study: The commodities story

29 March 2011

Four fund managers explain why the case for commodities remains strong despite concerns of a bubble and growing uncertainty about the global recovery.

By Mark Smith,

Reporter, Financial Express

ALT_TAGEvy Hambro (pictured right), manager of BlackRock Gold & General

"In terms of recent geopolitical factors and natural disasters, it’s important to maintain a broad macro view when looking at the markets."

"However, these recent events are likely to have a positive impact across the commodities spectrum, as nuclear power plants will need to be rebuilt and investors traditionally turn to gold during periods of uncertainty and instability as a way of preserving wealth."

"Gold is trading in line with the sector prerequisites. Central banks have been accumulators for the last three years, supply has remained flat while at the same time demand for gold jewellery has increased over the past 24 months, with significant appetite in India and China."


Ayesha Akbar (pictured below), head of Fidelity MultiManager Growth Portfolio

ALT_TAG "Investors are currently experiencing uncertain and volatile times. Austerity measures, political and economic unrest and natural disasters can lead investors to wonder where it is sensible to invest their money, especially with interest rates being so low."

"Commodities tend to do well in times of inflation. Commodities also hold their value better in times of financial crises, when investors prefer holding real assets to financial ones."

"Commodities are also attractive for another reason. The way the indices are constructed means there is a range of sub-sectors to look at. Thus, you can asset allocate amongst precious metals, industrial metals, energy and agriculture."

"Precious metals and agriculture tend to be the more defensive plays while energy and industrial metals tend to do better when the macroeconomic indicators are more positive."

"Commodity exposure is also a way to indirectly play the real growth we are seeing from emerging markets, which ironically do not have the leverage problems that many developed countries are now experiencing."

ALT_TAG
Catherine Raw (pictured right), portfolio manager, BlackRock Natural Resources team

"We see opportunities for commodities globally and, because we manage a diversified portfolio, we are not restricted to investing in any one type of commodity. Good value can be found across the spectrum of the commodity space."


Will Smith (pictured below), manager of City Natural Resources

ALT_TAG "The tragic events over the past few weeks in Japan will create a renewed focus on energy policy and which sources of energy will indeed provide base-load capacity long-term. We continue to favour: gold, whilst loose monetary policy continues; palm oil, as a play on rising incomes in Asia; and copper for its particular supply/demand dynamic."

"It is not unreasonable to suggest that most of the easy and obvious resources of the world have been found and that the best new discoveries are being made [in places] where companies have not been able to access, whether by politics, remoteness or by application of new technologies."

"The West African gold story continues to be an exciting area, and we are following the oil and gas plays in South America with great interest."

"We are not afraid to turn over new stones searching for returns. Over the last 18 months the Rare Earth sector has been one of the better performers, as the Chinese restrict the export of these metals."

"We believe that new technologies will drive the demand for these and other specialist metals such as vanadium, tantalum and tungsten."

"We believe the secular bull market in most commodities is intact. Frankly, bubbles can only be clearly identified once they have burst. Our underlying optimism is based on infrastructure needs of both developing and developed economies and the inability of the supply side to match that growing demand."

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