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Europe "more risky than emerging markets"

30 June 2011

The region looks to be going down the route of Asia and Russia in the late 90s.

By Mark Smith,

Reporter, FE Trustnet

Investing in the eurozone represents a higher risk than emerging economies, according to James Syme and Paul Wimborne of Baring Global Emerging Markets.

The managers believe the intensifying sovereign debt problem bears the hallmarks of the crises that have hurt emerging markets in the past.

Performance of indices over 3-yrs

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Source: FE Analytics

"If you are looking for something akin to an emerging market crisis then it is most likely to come from Europe," said Wimborne.

Both Syme and Wimborne’s formative experiences in the management of emerging market equity came during a turbulent period at the end of the 1990s.

The Asian financial crisis of 1997 started in Thailand after the collapse of the Thai baht and triggered a decline in world commodity prices.

Russia was the hardest hit and in 1998 a series of events led to a dramatic devaluing of the rouble.

"One of the drivers of typical emerging market collapses is the inability to control currency," explained Wimborne. "One way of getting out of a crisis is to devalue your currency. You can’t do that if you belong to the euro."

The threat of Greece defaulting on its debts has highlighted frailties in the European single currency and so far larger economies on the continent, such as Germany and France, have gone to great lengths to prevent Greece’s demise.

This week French president Nicolas Sarkozy proposed that the private sector should voluntarily help with the bailout by extending loans to 30 years. France has the highest exposure to Greek debt of any country and Sarkozy seems determined to prevent a default.

"We won’t let Greece fall, we will defend the euro. It’s in all our interests," he insisted on Monday.

Wimborne says that this kind of approach is likely to lead to further problems down the line.

"Greek protectionism is dragging down other economies," he said. "Solutions so far just seem to be delaying the inevitable. Gordon Brown and Ben Bernanke took a lot of criticism in 2008 for their response to the financial crisis but a lot can be said for their ability to stand in front of a crisis and stop it."

Stuart Thomson, chief economist at Ignis, agrees. He believes that the Greek economy cannot avoid a collapse.

"It is increasingly difficult to kick the can down the road, because the can is becoming heavier, this weight driven by the silent run on the Greek banking system," he explained.

"The capital flight and the execution risks to the fiscal austerity and privatisation programme suggest that there will be another crisis within the next 12 months."

"This will emphasise the fact that adding debt on top of already unsustainable debt levels will ultimately be self-defeating. We expect Greece to remain a problem until the inevitable default takes place, with the next IMF tranche in September a likely source of trouble."

Syme, whose new fund JOHCM Global Emerging Markets launches this week, is also wary of the possibility of the US going down a similar route.

"Things that keep us awake at night are coming from the developed world rather than the emerging world. We are not saying that it is round the corner but a US default would certainly be very interesting. The Fed seems to be in denial at the size of its deficit."

Gavin Rochussen, chief executive of JO Hambro, urges investors to consider the very real threat of developed world defaults.

"Stay away from developed markets and go for emerging markets," he commented.

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