Boris Johnson is set to become prime minister after winning the Conservative party leadership election, yet what, if anything, does it mean for investors?
Johnson won 92,153 votes for the Conservative party members, almost double the 46,656 cast in favour of rival Jeremy Hunt, with 87 per cent of eligible members voting.
Promising to “deliver Brexit, unite the country and defeat Jeremy Corbyn”, Johnson has already received the backing of US president Donald Trump.
As a Leave campaigner during the EU referendum campaign, much has been made of his comments regarding Brexit but it remains to be seen how talks will progress.
The leadership election was sparked by the announcement on 4 May that leader Theresa May would step down 7 June, after failing to get her Brexit deal through Parliament.
Performance of FTSE 100 since May resignation announcement
Source: FE Analytics
Below, several fund managers give their view on what they think Boris Johnson as prime minister will mean for UK assets.
‘Wait and see’
Jason Borbora-Sheen, co-portfolio manager of Investec Diversified Income fund, said it will be waiting for greater certainty surrounding Brexit before adding to its UK equity holdings.
“The ongoing uncertainty around Brexit is arguably the worst outcome for UK assets and we must be realistic that even as our newly appointed prime minister takes his seat in Number 10, the ambiguity for the UK will likely continue long into the future as the trading relationship is negotiated,” the fund manager said.
“Therefore, we believe it is vital for investors to take a highly selective approach to allocating to the UK.”
The appointment of Boris Johnson as prime minister is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the domestic market as it has been widely anticipated, however, it is likely to increase the odds of a ‘no deal’ Brexit and could cause sterling to fall and growth weaken, the Investec Diversified Income manager said.
A buying opportunity is likely to emerge once the Brexit outcome becomes more apparent, he added.
“Our approach within the Investec Diversified Income fund has been to hold only limited exposure in the UK while the uncertainty persists and to balance international and domestic exposure, leaving us less vulnerable to the shifting sentiment around Brexit,” said Borbora-Sheen (pictured).
“We are stockpickers and look for companies with a reasonable yield, supported by resilient cash flows, which are attractively priced.
“Domestically we see opportunities in names such as Lloyds and Next, while holding internationally exposed names such as GSK and Unilever as well as some positions in mining and energy.”
“Ukraine has a comedian for leader; have we got much better?”
Given the populist appeal of Brexit-backer Boris, some people have drawn comparisons with US president Donald Trump, arguing that Johnson could be as good for sterling as Trump has been for the US dollar. But that might be the wrong conclusion, according to Kames Diversified Growth co-manager Colin Dryburgh.
“The truth is, the dollar is today only around 1 per cent higher, on a trade-weighted basis, than when Trump was elected,” he said. “The inference that Boris will boost the pound might be similarly incorrect.”
Indeed, a comparison of the UK and US government is a mistake, he said.
“Whatever your view of it, the US government is stable and delivering coherent economic policies; a far cry from the mess in the UK which sees Boris as a manifestation rather than a cure,” explained Dryburgh.
“The US is the world’s major economy, has the global reserve currency and is increasingly energy self-sufficient – and so able to dictate terms to everyone else. The UK is much more beholden to the generosity of strangers and has a very uncertain external outlook, especially with the EU.”
Johnson’s US counterpart can rely on a “loyal and sizeable support” while Boris support is made up of the Conservative party members and now leads a minority government.
“Ukraine now has a comedian for leader; one might ask have we got much better?” said the Kames manager. “And if not Boris, then Corbyn.
“Theresa May had her failings but for investors at least there was comfort that nothing dramatic would result; neither Boris nor Corbyn instil that sense of stability.”
“One of the best opportunities to invest in UK markets”
Not much has changed, said Fidelity International portfolio manager Leigh Himsworth, with the UK facing three polarised options: a withdrawal agreement similar to Theresa May’s; a general election; or, a new referendum.
“The outcome will depend on how confident Boris feels in his own political power,” said Himsworth. “His support of the Leave campaign gives him leverage over the right wing while the bluster may win Labour Leave voters.
“His personal background may help him retain the Tory heartland. But the key question is whether he will be able to extend his charm over the Channel.”
As such, Himsworth said he remains fixated on sterling which is reacting “almost by the minute” to the Brexit narrative.
Performance of sterling vs euro since EU referendum
Source: FE Analytics
“While it is easy to argue that the UK equity markets offer great value versus their peer group, this is especially true of a deal or new referendum scenario,” he said. “The jury remains firmly out regarding a no-deal as this would be too much of a step into the unknown.
“We may well look back in a few years’ time and regard this period as quite simply one of the best opportunities that we have seen to invest in UK equity markets.”