Much has been written about the emotional cycle of fear and greed in investing. Both panic and excessive optimism alike can create extraordinary opportunities for those who can afford to be patient and lean against prevailing sentiment. But investors do not merely buy high and sell low because they are fickle, irrational creatures. While some may indeed fit that description, for many it is simply a case of having spare cash to invest when times are good and the need to call on that money unexpectedly when times are hard. 
It is all too clear how this dynamic is playing out in its latest manifestation. While now easing, travel restrictions and widespread physical distancing measures ushered in some of the toughest times seen for many years, triggering an economic shutdown that affected nearly everyone. Small businesses have been hit particularly hard, and for many people faced with job losses, ill health or self-isolation, conditions have become very tough very quickly.
As is their nasty habit, financial markets have a way of piling on the misery just when it is least welcome. During the market panic in March, it seemed to us that many individuals found themselves forced to sell some of their stock market investments to meet urgent short-term needs. But a much bigger wave of forced selling came from professional investors who were aggressively positioned for perpetually good times. Their strategy of borrowing at low rates to juice returns on the assumption of low volatility, rising asset prices and endless liquidity has suddenly come to a crashing halt.
In nearly two decades, this is the third major bear market that I have seen. Of all the lessons I have learned, the single most important one is to stay relentlessly focused on the long term. It also happens to be the easiest thing to say when everything is going well, and the hardest thing to actually do when it really matters.
The big question I ask myself is, what new opportunities will stand out as exceptional bargains when we are looking back five or ten years from now?
Experience has made me mindful that big global events can often accelerate societal change. “Never let a crisis go to waste” is the mantra of many an astute politician. Caught in the here-and-now of the immediate crisis, big structural changes can sneak by unnoticed.
Take the dotcom bust of 2000-01 as a prime example. While investors were preoccupied with the “New vs Old Economy” debate and the market volatility that ensued, the really big change that was occurring, and which dominated the next decade, was China quietly joining the World Trade Organization and ushering in a natural resource bonanza in the decade that followed.
Similarly, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, instead of debating whether or not to wade back into banks or to stick with something more defensive, the more insightful investors were following the advent of the smartphone, which enabled entirely new business models to emerge and dominate in the 2010s.
As bottom-up stockpickers, we rarely allow ourselves to try to guess what the next big thing will be. But the lesson of these previous historical episodes is that it does pay to think laterally and beyond the knee-jerk questions. What is quietly happening off to the side while everyone is debating the fate of travel companies and makers of toilet paper and hand sanitiser?
During this current crisis, one possibility we would offer would be climate change. We would like to believe that the pandemic will prompt greater cooperation on other challenges facing the human race. If so, one example of a beneficiary might be Vestas Wind Systems, the world’s largest manufacturer of wind turbines. Our research suggests that not only is wind power today environmentally favourable, it is also economically superior— beating fossil fuels in cost effectiveness for the first time in history. As electricity demand grows in the decades ahead, there is both the room and the need for renewable power such as wind to grow approximately eightfold. Vestas, as the industry leader in both profitability and market share, appears to have a particularly bright future. But during the darkest days of March it sold off by 30 per cent over a few weeks despite no change, or perhaps even a marginal improvement, in its long-term prospects.
We realise that it is almost impossible to turn away from the noise when it feels like the world is crashing down around you, but it is absolutely critical to remain aware that while a crisis is ongoing, there may well be deeper structural changes underway at the same time. Often these trends will have a far more long-lasting impact on the world, on economies, and on markets. Being aware of these trends, and focusing on the long-term, could very well be the recipe for success.
Ben Preston is manager of Orbis Global Equity. The views expressed above are his own and should not be taken as investment advice.