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Peter Hargreaves: Why 90% of my wealth is in the stock market

13 April 2018

Peter Hargreaves, chairman of Blue Whale Capital, explains why alternative asset classes are not that attractive in the current investment environment.

By Peter Hargreaves,

Blue Whale Capital

One of the questions I am most frequently asked is where to invest in today’s economic and political environment.

Not for 40 years has political ineptitude and intrusion entered so broadly into the financial world. Combined with a bizarre economic landscape, this makes choosing which assets to invest in a tricky conundrum.

Even 40 years ago there was a clear option for those looking to invest. Real assets – property, gold, chattels, et cetera – were buoyed by rampant inflation during the 1970s (25 per cent per annum and above in some years). Back then you could borrow at rates which were considerably lower than the inflated appreciation of the assets acquired. But the lack of inflation at those levels make today’s decisions very different and consequently real assets look less attractive.

Where property is concerned, there is a further factor weighing on its appeal – a punitive rate of stamp duty which has curbed property transactions.

I am not convinced interest rates are going to rise with any significance in the short term, despite the governor of the of the Bank of England indicating otherwise. In the UK we wouldn't want the cost of borrowing or the value of the pound to rise - the economy is not booming! Nevertheless, the price of bonds is already discounting a rate rise which means there is little potential.

Having discounted property, other real assets and fixed interest there is one area which I believe still provides value. I concede that shares seem expensive by historic standards, but the circumstances are unique. I believe a philosophy of holding cash with a view to invest further down the line would prove unfruitful, as opportunity after opportunity will be missed.

There is a lot of noise that the market is expensive, there has been a lot of similar noise for a couple of years now, yet equity prices keep going up. Conversely, there was hardly any noise in 2007 that the market was expensive, yet we all know what happened in 2008.

I put my money where my mouth is – in excess of 90 per cent of my wealth is invested in the stock market and I plan to add to this on an ongoing basis.

Peter Hargreaves is chairman of Blue Whale Capital. The views expressed above are his own and should not be taken as investment advice.

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