Just two members of the FTSE 100 index have achieved positive total returns in each of the 10 full calendar years since 2008, research by FE Analytics shows.
However, our review of the blue-chip index also shows that another 10 of its current members were in positive territory for nine of the past decade’s years while 27 were up in eight of them.
Between 1 January 2008 and 16 May 2018, the FTSE 100 posted a total return of 78.09 per cent. The first year of that period was a tough one, with the index dropping 28.33 per cent as the financial crisis bit into global markets; however, it only had two more negative years in the following period (falling by 2.18 per cent in 2011 and by 1.32 per cent in 2015).
Performance of index by full calendar year
Source: FE Analytics
Over the same period, 65 of its current members have made a higher return than the index – although it must be kept in mind that many of these will have seen strong growth as they moved up the market cap spectrum as smaller companies and were eventually promoted into the FTSE 100.
Of course, past performance is not a guide to future returns and investors will have noticed that stock markets endured a challenging opening quarter in 2018 that has caused many to suffer losses.
Looking at the performance of the 100 companies in the index shows that only two have never posted a loss in total return terms in the past 10 full calendar years – Astrazeneca and Compass Group.
Over the decade between 1 January 2008 and 16 May 2018, pharmaceutical giant Astrazeneca has made a 315.83 per cent total return, compared with a 176.77 per cent gain in the FTSE All Share Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology index. It has continued this in 2018, being up 6.79 per cent over 2018 to 16 May. (Editor's note: the stock has sold off on the morning of 18 May after its Q1 results)
Astrazeneca’s share price progress comes even though the firm has experienced falling revenues in recent years on the back of its losing exclusivity of some of its best-selling medicines. However, it launched a strategy in 2013 that is built around three pillars – achieving scientific leadership, returning to growth and being a great place to work.
The company currently has more than 144 projects in its pipeline and launched five new medicines in 2017, including advanced bladder cancer drug Imfinzi, mantle cell lymphoma treatment Calquence and anti-eosinophilic monoclonal antibody Fasenra.
In the 2017 annual report, Astrazeneca chairman Leif Johansson said: “In 2017, we made encouraging progress across all our therapy areas, as well as in commercial execution and cost discipline. After a number of years of falling revenue, I am pleased we were able to report a growth in product sales in the final quarter of 2017. We are now positioned for product sales growth from 2018.
Performance of stock by full calendar year
Source: FE Analytics
“I firmly believe that the significant progress we have made against each of our three strategic pillars vindicates the strategy we set in 2013. As a board, we have reviewed and confirmed that strategy each year. We also regularly review the supporting business performance reports, including pipeline updates and the results of key clinical trials.”
The stock is a popular one with fund managers. Some 11.39 per cent of funds in the IA UK All Companies sector have it in their top 10 holdings and 10 per cent of IA UK Equity Income funds have it among their largest holdings, while many more have it further down their portfolios.
Funds holding Astrazeneca among their major positions include Threadneedle UK Equity Income, TB Evenlode Income and Royal London UK Equity Income as well as a host of index trackers.
Compass Group is the other FTSE 100 stock that has posted 10 straight years of positive total returns. The firm is the largest contract food service company in the world, operating in around 50 countries, serving approximately 5.5 billion meals a year and employing more than 550,000 people across the globe.
The stock has made 540.01 per cent since 1 January 2008, compared with a total return of 149.96 per cent from the FTSE All Share Travel & Leisure index. However, the stock is down 1.60 per cent over 2018 to date, after its interim results revealed headwinds coming from the challenged economic backdrop in the eurozone and foreign exchange movements.
Compass Group is a less common holding than Astrazeneca among UK equity managers. FE Analytics shows that just 1.58 per cent of IA UK All Companies members have the stock in their top 10 while this falls to 1 per cent for IA UK Equity Income funds.
That said, analysts have a broadly positive view of the stock. According to Hargreaves Lansdown, two out of five brokers it asked have a ‘strong buy’ on the company while another two have a ‘buy’ recommendation on it; the remaining broker is neutral.
Graham Spooner, investment research analyst at The Share Centre, said about its interim results earlier this month: “International performance for Compass has been mixed as North America continues to make good progress whilst performance in Europe was mixed. Whilst growth remained positive in the UK this was offset by discouraging trading in continental Europe.
Performance of stock by full calendar year
Source: FE Analytics
“Investors should also note that the group hiked its interim dividend by 9.8 per cent to 12.3p and the expectations for the full year remain unchanged with organic growth forecasted to be in a range of 4-6 per cent. Owing to its strength in North America, we uphold a positive view on the group and therefore maintain a ‘buy’ recommendation for lower-risk investors seeking a balanced portfolio.”
Trojan Income, Newton UK Equity and Fidelity UK Select are some of the funds that currently include Compass Group among their top 10 holdings.
Some of the FTSE 100 companies that have experienced nine years of positive share price returns in the past decade include tobacco giant British American Tobacco, enterprise software company Sage Group and wealth management business St. James's Place.
Those avoiding falls for eight of the past 10 full years include fund management group Schroders, information and analytics provider RELX, Intercontinental Hotels Group, insurer Prudential and electricity and gas utility company National Grid.