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Political change in the US may revive investor interest | Trustnet Skip to the content

Political change in the US may revive investor interest

03 November 2010

The Republican gains in the mid-term elections could be positive news for investors in US funds.

By Lora Coventry,

Analyst, Financial Express

Republican gains in the US Senate will be a boost for business, says Marc Shaw, manager of JPMorgan US Smaller Companies Investment Trust.

"More Republicans means more compromise in the house, and more progression. That will lead to more market optimism, which will pass on to corporate America, and, eventually consumers. It will lead to a self-sustaining economy," Shaw said.

His comments come as voters digest the outcome of the US mid-term elections held on November 2.

The IT North America sector has traditionally underperformed other IT sectors, as investors look increasingly to the global emerging markets (GEM) for better growth opportunities.

Performance of IT North America sector vs all IT sectors over 1-yr

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Source: Financial Express Analytics

However, US managers say this preference for GEM is reflected in the price of US equities, that western stocks offer exposure to emerging markets, and that stability will return to the US economy. 

"Next year will see more growth, and it will be less volatile in the US," Shaw said.

He added: "I'd anticipated low growth this year, but not the consistent risk-on, risk-off play we've been seeing. That's created a tough environment for stock pickers."

Dave McCraw manages the Edinburgh US Tracker Trust. He says there are high expectations from this week's mid-term elections in the market.

"The mid-terms and the prospect of further quantitative easing  (QE) in the US have meant markets are volatile. However, that doesn't mean there's not been growth. Markets are up 13 per cent since mid-August," he said.

He added: "A lot of views on the US, such as its lacklustre growth, are looking in the rear view mirror. Many US companies [in the S&P 500 Index] are on projected earnings of 12x earnings at the moment; the cheapest they've been in a long time."

Both managers concede that emerging markets offer a lot of growth opportunities for investors, but flag up that the market is very aware of the opportunities out there, making many stocks expensive.

"Investors need to ask what price they are paying to get exposure to emerging markets," McGraw said.

Shaw also points out that US companies benefit from wealth creation in emerging markets. Proctor & Gamble are set to get a boost from increased consumer demand for consumer products in emerging Asia, while McDonalds benefits from more people eating outside the home.

Industry body the Association of Investment Companies (AIC) said: "Since 2008 sentiment in the US has fallen, with just four per cent of investment company managers questioned in the AIC's 2009 annual poll of fund managers selecting the US to be the best performing region, compared to 28 per cent in 2008."

It added: "Performance in North American investment companies is slightly below the average investment company over a number of years. However, there is reason to believe that the investment outlook is brighter."

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.