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Why it is not too late to buy in to the Japan rally | Trustnet Skip to the content

Why it is not too late to buy in to the Japan rally

18 March 2013

Barings’ Andrew Cole says the authorities’ commitment to manipulating a weaker yen and boosting the economy bodes well for the future of the out-of-favour country.

By Thomas McMahon

Reporter, FE Trustnet

The stock market surge in Japan is set to continue, according to Andrew Cole, manager of the Baring Multi Asset fund, who has bought Japanese equities for the first time since the fund was launched in March 2009.

The TSE Topix has surged 28.81 per cent since mid-November, according to data from FE Analytics, more than any other developed market index.

Performance of indices over 6 months

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Source: FE Analytics

After such a surge, many investors may be thinking now is a good time to take profits, but Cole, who had nothing in the country as late as December, says that the good run will continue, and cynics who have sat out the rally will miss out.

"We believe the recent recovery in Japanese equities is sustainable given the authorities' commitment to manipulating a weaker yen and boosting a flagging domestic economy," he said.

"The measures taken by the Bank of Japan appear to be more credible than anything we have seen in the past."

"As such, we believe Japanese equities are set to provide good opportunities for investors. There are signs of traction in the Japanese economy as the sentiment of small firms, consumer confidence and industrial production growth have started to improve."

Many investors have been sceptical of the Japanese recovery story. The country has had many false dawns over the past two decades and has remained stuck in a low-growth, deflationary environment.

However, the loosening of monetary policy by a new government has won over some high-profile investors.

FE Alpha Manager Steve Russell, of the Ruffer Investment Company, told FE Trustnet last month that the health of the banking system would ensure that this time the recovery is genuine.

However, others are more sceptical. Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Standard Life Investments, said: "We would still caution with 'caveat emptor' [buyer beware]."

"Japan has seen a long series of attempts to turn the economy around. Historically it has been right to doubt just how sustained any Japanese policy initiatives will prove to be."

"The present occasion is not yet any different, it is a tactical call to prefer some Japanese assets but the strategic decision is still to be taken."

"If change is lacking, then investors should look to ‘rent’ Japanese equities for a short period, rather than ‘owning’ them for the longer term."

Cole and his co-manager Percival Stanion have sold down their gold holdings in favour of Japanese equities.

"We have reduced exposure to gold as we believe the precious metal is likely to need yet another surge in unorthodox monetary policy in the US to keep making significant progress," he said.

"It retains diversifying attributes, however, and we are monitoring developments closely."

The managers have also reduced exposure to sterling from 79 per cent of assets in the fund in the third quarter of 2012 to 68 per cent in the first quarter of 2013.

They have also sold down their holdings in "safe haven" government bonds, such as those of Australia, as they move into riskier assets.

The £335m Baring Multi Asset fund has made 16.58 per cent over three years, marginally less than the average fund in the IMA Mixed Investment 20%-60% Shares sector.

Performance of fund vs sector over 3yrs

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Source: FE Analytics

Data from FE Analytics shows that the fund was ahead of the sector when the market was struggling, but has fallen behind as it has rallied.

The fund is among the least volatile in the sector over three years, however, and its maximum drawdown – the most investors could have lost if they bought and sold at the worst moments – is one of the lowest in the sector, at 5.47 per cent.

The fund is available with a minimum initial investment of £2,000 and has an ongoing charges figure of 1.93 per cent.

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.