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No debt barrier key to Asian lead

04 May 2010

Low debt, stable public finances and strong consumption are factors pacing Asian recovery, says Henderson's Andrew Beal.

By Charlotte Banks,

Analyst, Financial Express

Asia is in a structural bull market according to Henderson's Andrew Beal, who believes the region will be back to peak price to book prices in the short to mid-term.

Beal, who manages the Henderson TR Pacific Investment Trust and the Henderson Asia Pacific Capital Growth fund, notes the speed of growth in the region, but adds that it is other ongoing changes that make it more interesting.

"The recovery in Asia has been rapid and I believe it will be at peak prices again in two to three years, with stacks of upside to be had in the mean time," he says. "Asia was in a horrendous mess at the end of the 1990s, with banks going bust, however these structural problems have now been addressed and the region has spent the last 10 years doing what the UK will now be doing, which is rebuilding."

Performance over 1-yr

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Source: Financial Express Analytics

Beal's comments coincide with the latest report - Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific - published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which states Asia is leading the global recovery for two key reasons.

The first of these is private domestic demand, which is expected to remain robust. The second reason is the global and domestic inventory cycle, which the IMF says is likely to boost Asia's industrial production and exports further for most of 2010, as demand finally recovers in developed economies.

Beal is also bullish on the Asian consumption story. He says the region needs to start looking to build on export relationships with developing markets elsewhere, and relying less on the West. "If Asia has learnt anything in the last couple of years it is that you cannot rely on the West anymore, public debt and consumer debt is unsustainable."

"The idea that the West can keep mopping up cheap exports from Asia is not going to happen anymore. Asia needs to look to developing markets instead," he says. Beal believes Asia has already benefited from trading with markets and regions such as the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and emerging Europe, particularly Russia. Demographic and consumer factors have also helped Asia become an attractive investment opportunity.

"The Asian workforce is continuing to grow, this means there are more and more people able to earn money to save and to spend in Asia," he says.

"Consumer credit is a fraction of what it is in the West, the Asian consumer is not leveraged. There is an incentive to buy things in Asia now and the region is definitely at the start of the credit cycle."

He also points to Asian banks and public finances, which he says are in great shape, with the proportion of disposable income being saved averaging over 30 per cent for China and Singapore. In comparison the rate for the UK and US stand at about five and four per cent respectively. Public debt as a percentage of GDP stands at around 32 per cent in Asia ex Japan, compared to just under 90 per cent in the G7 countries.

China as a market stands out in the region, Beal notes. The Pacific Investment Trust's ability to outperform its benchmark MSCI AC Asia Ex Japan index by about 11 per cent in the year to 31 December 2009 is largely down to investing in this one market. Of that 11 per cent, Beal says Chinese stocks such as Tencent Holdings accounted for about half, or 5.5 per cent, with another 3.3 per cent coming from the trust’s net gearing.
 
"Over a ten year view growth investing is the right approach, it has just been that the last few years have been quite tough in Asia," he says.

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