Argentina, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Romania have some of the best growth prospects among the frontier market economies, according to T. Rowe Price’s Oliver Bell.
Often overlooked due to their perceived riskiness and lack of liquidity, frontier markets can offer some of the most exciting growth prospects for investors, the manager argued.
As the below chart shows, the MSCI Frontier Markets index has delivered a total return of 28.85 per cent in 2017, in local currency terms, slightly ahead of the MSCI Emerging Markets index’s gain of 27.04 per cent but ahead of the developed markets-focused MSCI World’s 18.11 per cent rise.
Performance of indices YTD
Source: FE Analytics
T. Rowe Price’s Bell – who manages the five FE Crown-rated T. Rowe Price Frontier Markets Equity fund – said the fundamentals continue to support the case for investment in frontier markets.
He said: “The macro fundamentals and demographics in many frontier markets are favourable today – in some cases resembling emerging countries 15 to 20 years ago.
“For example, GDP growth for many frontier markets is likely to range from about 6 per cent to 9 per cent in the years ahead, much stronger than in the developed and emerging markets universes.
“In addition, nearly 60 per cent of the aggregate population in the frontier universe is below age 30. This young workforce should drive economic growth and develop into a solid middle class of consumers in many countries.”
However, the fund manager said conditions and investment opportunities will vary widely among frontier markets
He added: “Overall, solid returns for the frontier universe over the past five calendar years, combined with durable secular growth and low correlation to the global cycle, is increasing investor attention in what has historically been a largely overlooked area of the market.
“Indicators have turned up sharply in recent months and with exchange rates looking more competitive, there is enough encouraging news flow to retain a positive outlook in 2018 and beyond.”
Below, Bell considers several economies across different regions that could be set to deliver strong performance in 2018.
Argentina
The first market highlighted by Bell is Argentina, a market which has undergone several changes under president Mauricio Macri.
“Headway is being made towards lowering the country’s sky-high levels of inflation and domestic growth is gradually reaccelerating,” he said.
“So far, reform measures have included the elimination of foreign exchange controls, a hike in electricity rates and the removal of certain tariffs previously protecting local industry.”
He added: “Future efforts are set to focus on tax, education and labour – which should continue to have a positive effect on the broad business environment.”
As such, Bell said he has been adding to positions across sectors, particularly in the financials, energy and real estate sectors.
Performance of MSCI Argentina YTD
Source: FE Analytics
The MSCI Argentina index has performed strongly this year, delivering a total return of 60.51 per cent.
Nigeria
In Africa, the fund manager said he is backing Nigeria next year despite “moderated growth” for some of the continent’s major economies.
Bell said demographics in the region remain favourable while gradual improvements in global demand and commodity prices “should pave the way for a pick-up in growth”.
“The macroeconomic environment in Nigeria has been challenging over the past three years – on the back of lower oil prices, delayed currency adjustments and inefficient execution on reforms,” he explained. “Combined, this drove the country into recession.”
He added: “While there is still a wide spread of currency rates being used today, recent adjustments have helped lead a substantial improvement in US dollar liquidity, which has prompted us to slowly increase our exposure.
“However, for us to be completely comfortable and take an overweight position, we would like to see one unified free-floating currency rate.”
Sri Lanka & Vietnam
In the Asia region, Bell believes Sri Lanka and Vietnam offer the best growth prospects.
Vietnam, said Bell, has been steadily growing exports to levels consistent with developed market economies and while demand has been supported by a “young, highly productive middle class”.
As such, he has backed consumer companies gaining export market share and with expanding domestic and online presences. The fund manager also likes bank stocks within Vietnam, which have benefited from the improving macroeconomic backdrop.
Sri Lanka, meanwhile, is the fund’s largest overweight and one area where Bell is particularly bullish. He said the island nation “is home to some of the most attractively valued and effectively managed businesses across the frontier universe”.
As well as being on the cusp of a construction boom, thanks to planned major infrastructure projects, Bell said its strategic location means it could become a regional trading hub.
Romania
Finally, in Europe, Bell said he believes the Romanian economy is starting to show signs of a cyclical upswing underpinned by domestic demand.
Demand has been driven by wage growth, low interest rates and cuts to value added tax.
Again, Bell favours financials stocks highlighting the recovery of the sector since the global financial crisis, the potential for consolidation and improvements in the macroeconomic backdrop.
Additionally, the fund manager said he has positioned for structural growth in Romania’s private healthcare markets.
Bell has managed the $435.1m, five FE Crown-rated T. Rowe Price Frontier Markets Equity strategy since launch in 2014.
The fund’s largest country position is Argentina, which represents 25.9 per cent of the portfolio. Other significant country exposures include Vietnam (13.2 per cent), Kuwait (12.6 per cent), and Sri Lanka (9.5 per cent).
Performance of fund over 3yrs
Source: FE Analytics
As the above chart shows, over three years the fund has delivered a total return of 50.20 per cent compared with a gain of 32.52 per cent for the MSCI Frontier Markets index.
The Luxembourg-domiciled fund has an ongoing charges figure (OCF) of 1.27 per cent.