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Japan recovery to boost chemicals market | Trustnet Skip to the content

Japan recovery to boost chemicals market

13 April 2011

BNY Mellon’s global investment strategist says the country will bounce back from the earthquakes more quickly than expected.

By Lora Coventry,

Senior Reporter, Financial Express

Shortages from Japan are likely to boost the price of chemicals, according to Laurie Carroll of BNY Mellon.

The global investment strategist said: "The chemicals sector may experience muted sales headwinds and petrochemical producers would likely benefit from reductions in Japanese exports of commodity chemicals."

The comments came as Japan downgraded its own economic forecast, and a day after the IMF did the same.

"Japan’s scarcity of natural resources makes it a key consumer of metals and mining and multi-national oil. With a significant loss of electric generation capacity resulting from nuclear shut-downs, Japan will likely boost LNG consumption," Carroll added.

The strategist said she expected Japan to work its way out of the crisis, pointing out that the estimated cost of repair of 25trn yen ($295bn) was achievable for the world’s third largest economy, which has a GDP of nearly US$6trn.

"It’s worth noting that Japan was able to register positive GDP growth in 1995 following the massive earthquake near Kobe, Japan," Carroll continued.

She also said that the prospects for Japanese financials look good.

"In the current fiscal year, closing at the end of March, the Japanese banks have generated relatively robust profitability. Consequently, we believe they should maintain sound profitability for the current year."

Performance of fund vs sector over 1-yr

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Source: Financial Express Analytics

BNY Mellon Japan Equity's largest weighting is in financials, but it also has a hefty weighting to consumer products and industrials. The vehicle took a hit following the disaster, and lost 16 per cent in the aftermath of the event.

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