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Barings on the defensive | Trustnet Skip to the content

Barings on the defensive

01 June 2011

The asset management group thinks it is the right time to take profits and brace itself for a volatile short- to medium-term period.

By Joshua Ausden,

Reporter, Financial Express

Baring Asset Management has increased its exposure to consumer staples and healthcare and downgraded consumer durables and telecoms, amidst fears that developed equity returns have reached a plateau.

"Looking at equity valuations, the risk premium currently on offer is around the 10-year average, which is less compelling when you consider that risk premiums have been rising over that period," said Percival Stanion, head of asset allocation at Barings.

"Faced with this outlook, we think it is prudent to adopt a lower-risk profile at present and hold for a more attractive entry point to risk assets."

"As such, we have shifted our cyclical mix within equities, upgrading consumer staples and healthcare at the expense of consumer durables and telecoms."

According to Financial Express data, IMA Technology & Telecoms has been the best-performing sector in the unit trust and OEIC universe over a three-year period. By comparison, the MSCI World Utilities index has lost 7.04 per cent in this time.

Performance of sector vs index over 3-yrs

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Source: Financial Express Analytics

However, Stanion believes the remainder of 2011 will be volatile and uncertain and thinks it is wise to take profits on riskier assets that have performed well since the troughs of early 2009.

He commented: "After two years of strong growth, recent data suggests that most economic indicators are now peaking. Europe is a case in point in this regard. While the industrial recovery in the US is still strong, the consumer sector remains subdued and the housing market looks as if it could be due another down-swing."

Stanion also points to the uncertainty surrounding the supposed end of quantitative easing in the US and the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe as reasons to be cautious.

The pessimism has spread to emerging markets as well, in light of rising inflationary pressures and the inevitable tightening of monetary policy in some economies. Barings funds now focus on indirect exposure via large multi-national corporations.

Stanion views Australian and US government debt as the best bet for fixed income and has high hopes for commercial property, despite its mediocre performance since the lows of March 2009.

He explained: "A real asset we favour is UK commercial property. As banks unwind their exposure to such assets, we believe that investors with long-term investment horizons will be offered attractive opportunities, not just in property, but in other areas where banks had perhaps previously played too big a role in the funding process."

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.