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UK economy falters | Trustnet Skip to the content

UK economy falters

26 July 2011

The ONS has blamed poor second-quarter GDP figures on events such as the royal wedding and Japan earthquake.

By Mark Smith,

Reporter, FE Trustnet

Growth in the UK economy has slowed in the last three months, putting pressure on financial markets and increasing the threat of a double-dip recession.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), gross domestic product (GDP) grew by just 0.2 per cent in the last quarter compared with 0.5 per cent in the preceding three months.

Comparison of first- and fourth-quarter growth over 5-yrs


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Source: Office for National Statistics

The ONS insists that external factors were once again to blame for a fall in growth. Last time around it was the cold snap, now economists believe the extra bank holiday and a later Easter period contributed to the stall.

"Thanks to the royal wedding and the Japanese earthquake, the MPC was already expecting quite a soft number, so I don't think this data will materially change their view about what is going on," explained Ian Kernohan, economist at Royal London Asset Management.

"The big picture remains unchanged: the UK economy is going through a major rebalancing, from private and public consumption to net exports and business investment, which will take several years to complete," he added.

While the figure is in line with most city expectations, the sluggishness of the economy could mount pressure on the coalition and George Osborne’s austerity measures will come under intense scrutiny.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, believes the economy is balanced on a knife-edge.

"The risk of the UK falling into a double-dip recession has increased," he said. "Whether growth will pick up again in the second half of the year will much depend upon whether confidence improves."

"However, our research shows that more than three-times as many households expect the state of the UK economy to deteriorate over the next year than expect an improvement, which suggests that we have yet to see the consumer mood lighten."

"The recovery therefore looks likely to remain very dependent upon export sales, which is a concern as exporters are currently struggling in the face of weak economic growth in overseas markets."

However, David Miller, partner at Cheviot Asset Management, believes that while the figures are disappointing, the overall trajectory of the economy is positive.

"The last thing the markets want right now is a disruption of the peace," he said. "Britain is a beacon of sanity and although we may have seen weak figures today, overall the plan is working."

"Investors will still be feeling optimistic; the fundamentals are right, we still have low interest rates and a well-managed and strong corporate sector which is delivering good returns to investors. Today’s figures will have quashed any idea of a rate rise soon, which will be welcomed by investors."

Chancellor George Osborne was also keen to emphasise that things could have been much worse.

"The positive news is that the British economy is continuing to grow and is creating jobs," he said. "And it is positive news too that at a time of real international instability we are a safe haven in the storm."

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