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Japan managers warn against comparisons with UK | Trustnet Skip to the content

Japan managers warn against comparisons with UK

18 December 2011

Investors in the West can learn lessons from Japan about generating decent returns in a stagnating market, but should beware of relying on similarities in macroeconomic performance.

By Anthony Luzio

Reporter, FE Trustnet

The prolonged period of deflation and currency appreciation that Japan has suffered from over the past 20 years separates it from the predicament the UK currently finds itself in, according to Andrew Rose, who heads up the Schroder Tokyo fund.

The manager does, however, believe investors can still use Japan's experience as a useful basic template for the years of austerity that lie ahead.

"The main similarity is that, like Japan in the 1990s and early 2000s, the UK economy faces strong growth headwinds as some of the debt excesses of earlier years are unwound, leading to several years of likely sub-par economic performance, particularly given a generally weak global backdrop," said Rose.

"However, Japan’s problems were prolonged by a descent into deflation. The UK has had the benefit of the Japanese example and, in contrast to the Japanese authorities, has been proactive in using the range of monetary tools at its disposal in a proactive fashion to avoid falling into a debilitating deflationary psychology, from which it is hard to exit. Another key difference is the exchange rate – Japan has had to contend with a trend of yen appreciation, a predicament the UK has not had to face."

Rose said that in this environment, companies able to grow profits whatever the economic backdrop have tended to be the most likely to outperform.

Neil Edwards, manager of GLG Japan Core Alpha, added: "Our strong belief is that in Japan, regardless of market direction, mean reversion is a powerful force, and that low-price-to-book tends to outperform the market. So contrarian investors, with a low price-to-book emphasis, have tended to win."

Edwards also highlighted the folly of relying too heavily on domestic consumption. "Areas of the market that performed relatively well have tended to benefit from strong demand in areas of the world other than Japan, examples being autos, precision equipment, machinery and (commodity-related) wholesale trade," he explained.

While Edwards is reluctant to make predictions about what the West is about to go through, he indicated that he thinks the good times are unlikely to return any time soon. "We would be interested to hear from anyone who has a better idea than investing in Japan, which has, after all, already undergone what many developed economies may now endure," he finished.

Performance of funds vs sector and index over 5-yrs

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Source: FE Analytics

According to FE Analytics, GLG Japan Core Alpha and Schroder Tokyo have returned 15.65 and 3.58 per cent respectively over five years. During this time the Nikkei 225 index and IMA Japan benchmark have lost 2.91 and 11.09 per cent respectively.

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.